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FXUS65 KABQ 071003
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
229 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
DISCUSSION
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS...PERHAPS TRENDING A BIT WETTER LATER NEXT WEEK.
STORM TO PASS TO OUR S THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY
SUN. BACK DOOR FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT AND MOVE S MON
AND W MON NIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE SUN NIGHT
OVER THE NE AND ALL OF THE E MON NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS WELL. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM MOVING TOWARD NW
MEXICO WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS S OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING MOST AREAS ON SUN
AND MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE E ON MON. WEAK E WIND LIKELY
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MON NIGHT.
WEAK RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SW FLOW. A
COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL PASS MAINLY N OF NM. THE STRONGEST
ONE LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THU THROUGH SAT PRIMARILY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CHJ
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FORM A CEILING AS THEY CROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE PATCHES
OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL HELP TO DECREASE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY.
NONETHELESS...WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. WE KEPT SMALL POPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THAT NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE PASSING TROUGH WILL DRIVE A MOIST
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS FRONT COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AS IT LINGERS IN THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A WEAK EAST WIND BELOW CANYONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. MODELS
STILL ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THERE
MAY BE TWO WAVES OF PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FIRST MAY PRODUCE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM GLENWOOD TO CLAYTON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 70 37 66 35 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 72 24 68 25 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 68 25 66 25 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 70 30 66 26 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 70 25 66 23 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 70 31 67 29 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 72 27 68 22 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 75 37 74 33 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 64 24 62 24 / 0 0 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 68 28 66 29 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 73 32 69 32 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 66 29 64 27 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 61 24 59 25 / 0 0 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 64 23 61 21 / 0 0 5 10
TAOS............................ 67 28 61 30 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 73 27 71 31 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 70 36 67 35 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 69 35 66 35 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 71 38 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 43 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 73 32 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 75 39 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 76 31 75 32 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 74 40 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 76 37 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 67 33 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 29 70 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 66 38 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 75 36 73 34 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 76 39 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 70 37 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 71 30 68 27 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 75 32 68 32 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 36 67 34 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 76 42 70 38 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 71 41 68 38 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 81 46 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 80 38 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 79 43 76 42 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 77 42 73 43 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 76 40 76 40 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 79 39 79 40 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 79 44 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 81 42 79 42 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 76 35 75 37 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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