789
FXUS65 KABQ 202104
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
204 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
DISCUSSION
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONCERN LOW
TEMPERATURES AS OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS PERSIST IN THE WEST AS WELL AS
THE STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON BREEZES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE IS NOTED ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE INVADES THE REGION. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT INTO
THE WRN TIER OF NM BY DAYBREAK. CONTINUED WITH A PERSISTENT PATTERN
FOR TEMPS IN THE WEST AS AN INVERSION LINGERS AROUND 750-800MB...
WHILE CONDITIONS IN THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE A TOUCH WARMER DUE TO
THE DISSIPATING NATURE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THURSDAY/S COLD
FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE WRN COASTLINE WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS ALOFT
TO INCREASE WHILE A LEE-SIDE TROUGH INCREASES THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE ERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR IN
THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND UPWARD...GENERALLY 5-15F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN THE MODEL SUITES FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY STORM SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL GFS40 CONTINUES WITH
A CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT PLAINS...OFFERING
NOTHING MORE THAN A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
COLORADO...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE PACKAGE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A FEW SOLUTIONS SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF. GAVE THE NOD TO THE DRIER SIDE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE...BUT
WILL HEDGE SOME LOW GRADE POPS IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO LOWER READINGS EVEN MORE AS THE PICTURE BECOMES MORE
CLEAR. DPORTER
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS...
IN THE 15 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS...
OVER AND UP TO 100 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 43
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER LOW AFTERNOON RH THIS AFTERNOON...FAIR TO LOCALLY GOOD RH
RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT IN MOST LOCALES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY CROSSING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL HEAD QUICKLY TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY...AND WINDS THROUGH THE H7-H5 LAYER WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVER NEW MEXICO AS A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OVER NE CORNER OF THE STATE. SURFACE/20FT WINDS WILL
REACH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY LEVELS AS A RESULT BY SATURDAY AFTN...
ESPECIALLY ON AND A LITTLE WAYS EAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN MTNS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALSO...RH WILL FALL TO AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL VALUES TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND DUE TO THE INCREASED WINDS IN THAT SAME REGION...SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN ONE AND THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BE REACHED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 103...104...
107...AND 108 OR GENERALLY NEAR AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE CLINES
CORNERS/SANTA ROSA/TUCUMCARI VICINITY. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE
TO THE BRIEF AND RATHER LOCALIZED NATURE OF THESE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME.
BRISK WINDS ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND SUMMITS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND RH RECOVERY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY AGAIN ON SUNDAY IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR SECOND
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT COMING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO FORECAST AREA WITH
LITTLE TO NO THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. 43
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 23 56 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 17 52 17 48 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 19 54 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 16 57 17 54 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 17 55 17 51 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 13 59 15 56 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 20 60 20 57 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 30 67 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 16 46 12 43 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 27 54 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 24 55 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 16 50 12 47 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 19 42 17 39 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 18 46 17 42 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 16 53 14 48 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 18 60 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 24 54 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 23 56 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 28 58 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 31 59 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 25 61 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 27 60 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 21 63 23 61 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 27 60 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 26 66 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 29 58 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 28 59 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 26 57 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 29 61 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 34 65 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 27 58 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 24 59 23 51 / 0 0 5 0
RATON........................... 19 60 23 53 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 25 61 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 31 64 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 26 63 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 29 70 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 29 70 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 28 70 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 32 69 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 30 69 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 30 71 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 30 72 31 70 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 29 72 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 29 67 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
46/43
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