352
FXUS65 KABQ 091030
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2010
DISCUSSION
VERY DISTINCT/COMPACT UPPER LOW SEEN OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...MODEST COMPENSATORY
500MB HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY THAT WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS
WILL BE NC/NW ZONES...WHERE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIP WILL PERSIST. IN ADDITION...OCNL FLURRIES AND PATCHY DENSE
MORNING FOG EXEPCTED TO LINGER IN THE FAVORED EASTERLY UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS.
MAX TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST WHERE READINGS WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH STRENGTHENING
INVERSIONS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT STRATUS/FLURRIES ACROSS NC/NW
AREAS TONIGHT. IN FACT...FCST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING FROM MOUNTAIN-TOP LEVEL TO 650 MB OR SO TONIGHT. SUSPECT
THAT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN SOCKED-IN FOR MUCH OF THE TDA/TNGT
PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE TONIGHT WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT SEE APPRECIABLE
CLEARING LATE TODAY...BUT PREDOMINATELY A LOW CLOUD REGIME. IN THE
EAST...EXPECT EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THERE TOO WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT
RELEGATED TO THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST /ESPECIALLY
IF THEY CAN GET SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY AND EARLY EVENING/ AS WELL
AS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
FOR THE MID-WEEK PD.... NOT SURSPRISINGLY...THE FORECAST TRACK OF
THE INCOMING PACIFIC LOW IS TRENDING FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH IN THE
00Z MODEL SUITE. THIS STANDS TO REASON WITH A 130+ KNOT JET ON ITS
BACKSIDE FOR THE NEXT 24-HOURS. WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOW
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z ECMWF...IT LOOKS TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY AS IT CROSSES NORTHWEST MEXICO ON WED. DO THINK
THAT A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDERLAND REGION WED NIGHT/THU MUCH LIKE
WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM ADVERTISED.
REGARDLESS... THIS TRACK DOES NOT FAVOR NORTHERN AREAS AT ALL AND
WE/LL BE SURPRISED IF ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. WHAT WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE FOR CENTRAL
AREAS/I-40 CORRIDOR IS HOW SLOWLY /OR QUICKLY/ THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES
EASTWARD. IF THE 00Z NAM...WHICH IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF...VERIFIES THERE WOULD BE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT COULD BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE/QPF AS FAR
NORTH AS I-40. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT QPF SOUTH OF A CLOVIS TO SOCORRO TO LUNA LINE...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND
POPS DOWNWARD ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MAINTAIN LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE HIGH WED
PM...BUT WILL QUICKLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST WED NIGHT INTO THU AS
THE COLD CORE ALOFT MOVES EAST. OUR SW/SC MOUNTAINS WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK/TIMING AND ESPECIALLY QPF PLACEMENT WILL
OPT FOR AN SPS AND LET DAY SHIFT CONSIDER HOISTING A WATCH. TOUGH
CALL ON P-TYPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WED NIGHT...BUT APPEARS
THAT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET/SNOW SCENARIO WED EVENING
INTO WED NIGHT MORE LIKELY THAN SIG FZRA. MUCH NEEDED RESPITE FOR
FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE NOW
ADVERTSING A NWLY FLOW PATTERN WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOCAL REGION. NO BIG STORMS FORESEEN
ALTHOUGH TEMPS REMAINING AT OR BELOW SEASONAL. KJ
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS...NORTHWEST PLATEAU...UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE LOW CEILING
MAY NOT LIFT MUCH TODAY. KABQ AND THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...HAVE
THE LEAST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TODAY AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSS THE STATE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO ARIZONA AS ANOTHER WINTER
STORM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL AGAIN RETURN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ARE BEING AFFECTED THIS MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS
CONTINUE TO CROSS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ON THE NE PLAINS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. TRANSPORT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND IT APPEARS THAT
VENTILATION RATES MAY ALSO CLIMB SOME...ALTHOUGH THE FAR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE FAIR TO POOR RATINGS. THE
BETTER RATINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.
VARIOUS WEATHER MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK THUS FAVORING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR NEW MEXICOS WEST
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND THE
LOWLANDS IN BETWEEN. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW INCHES MAY ALSO
COVER THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL BEGIN TO DROP THEY WILL STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH WITH ALL
OF THE MOISTURE ON THE GROUND.
MODELS ARE CHANGING THEIR TUNE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THAT DROPS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE WITH A COLD FRONT BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY. SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING MONDAY.
THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST INDICATES A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WITH A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
DRIER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE NORMAL FOR A
CHANGE. 44
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 22 43 20 / 10 20 40 20
DULCE........................... 35 11 38 8 / 20 30 40 20
CUBA............................ 37 22 40 15 / 20 20 40 30
GALLUP.......................... 39 20 41 19 / 10 20 40 40
EL MORRO........................ 38 20 40 18 / 5 20 40 40
GRANTS.......................... 41 19 42 21 / 10 20 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 42 23 43 22 / 0 20 50 50
GLENWOOD........................ 51 29 49 30 / 0 10 60 70
CHAMA........................... 31 9 35 3 / 20 30 40 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 37 18 41 18 / 20 20 30 30
PECOS........................... 34 15 38 18 / 20 20 30 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 32 7 37 5 / 20 20 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 26 10 30 10 / 10 20 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 28 11 33 11 / 10 20 30 20
TAOS............................ 35 13 39 13 / 20 20 30 20
ESPANOLA........................ 42 20 45 19 / 10 20 30 30
SANTA FE........................ 36 16 40 19 / 20 20 30 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 39 22 42 22 / 10 20 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 28 46 28 / 10 20 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 44 28 47 29 / 10 20 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 28 49 30 / 10 20 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 45 28 48 29 / 10 20 30 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 47 28 50 31 / 10 20 30 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 43 27 47 28 / 10 20 30 40
SOCORRO......................... 49 29 51 31 / 5 10 30 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 39 23 42 24 / 10 20 30 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 27 42 25 / 10 20 30 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 34 20 39 22 / 20 20 30 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 40 27 44 27 / 10 10 30 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 28 47 30 / 5 5 20 50
RUIDOSO......................... 38 24 40 25 / 5 5 30 70
CAPULIN......................... 28 16 37 20 / 10 20 20 10
RATON........................... 31 13 39 14 / 10 10 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 33 18 38 18 / 10 20 20 40
CLAYTON......................... 30 18 38 22 / 10 5 20 10
ROY............................. 30 22 38 25 / 10 10 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 37 24 45 25 / 10 5 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 39 24 45 27 / 10 5 20 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 36 24 43 26 / 10 5 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 36 23 42 27 / 10 5 10 30
PORTALES........................ 38 24 43 27 / 5 5 10 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 40 25 45 28 / 10 5 20 30
ROSWELL......................... 41 28 45 30 / 5 5 20 50
PICACHO......................... 42 26 46 30 / 10 5 20 60
ELK............................. 41 25 44 28 / 10 5 20 70
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
41
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