336  
FXUS65 KABQ 211137 AAA  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
537 AM MDT SAT APR 21 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF CYCLE  
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM  
THIS MORNING. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFT 15Z WITH LIFTING OF  
CLOUD DECKS TOWARD VFR AFT 18Z. MVFR CIGS ARE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF  
WESTERN NM FROM KFMN TO KGUP EARLY THIS MORNING AND THESE CIGS WILL  
BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS VFR THRU 18Z. DRIER  
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM TODAY AND  
CLEAR SKIES THRU THE AFTERNOON. THE EAST WILL REMAIN UNDER MOIST,  
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST VFR CIGS TO PERSIST  
MUCH OF THE DAY NORTH OF I-40. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER  
ROUND OF LOW CIGS TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 AFT 06Z.  
 
GUYER  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MDT SAT APR 21 2018
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL LIFT THIS MORNING WITH  
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A BACKDOOR FRONT  
WILL PUSH FURTHER WEST TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND  
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY  
AND MONDAY WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT ENTERING EASTERN NEW MEXICO  
TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY  
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR  
RAIN COULD ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER  
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR TRINIDAD, CO AS OF  
0300MDT THIS MORNING. THE SFC BACKDOOR PUSH HAS ALSO PUSHED INTO  
SOUTHEASTERN NM, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EAST-  
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NM. FREEZING FOG IS ALSO BEING OBSERVED  
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE'S AS WELL, SUPPORTING A DENSE FOG  
ADVISORY THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS  
EXITED THE STATE WITH THE ONLY PRECIP. BEING SOME LIGHT MIST ACROSS  
THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN INTO OK LATER  
TODAY WITH A STRONGER BACKDOOR PUSH EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LIGHT  
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE REMAIN  
WELL BELOW NORMAL, 10-20F BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST, AND SEVERAL  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NM.  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING  
AS THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY PUSHES TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. A BRIEF  
WEAK-MODERATE GAP WIND COULD OCCUR AT ABQ AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE, A  
BAGGY TROUGH WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
POTENTIALLY SPARKING A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. THE SFC  
BDRY ACROSS THE EAST TURNS SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH A LEE SFC TROUGH  
FORMING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE'S LIKELY SPARKING A FEW AFTERNOON  
STORMS WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD THE TX/OK  
PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO PEAK MONDAY  
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE STATEWIDE.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KICK DOWN ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT TUESDAY  
LIKELY SPARKING OFF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SANGRE'S  
POTENTIALLY INCLUDING THE SANDIA/MANZANOS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS LATER  
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL  
ACROSS THE EAST. THE BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO REACH TO THE AZ BORDER  
BRINGING A STRONGER GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TUESDAY  
NIGHT. IT ALSO LOOKS TO SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON STORMS  
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED AFTERNOON, BUT BY THIS POINT FORECAST  
CONFIDENCE STARTS TO DEGRADE. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK,  
ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE THURSDAY, HOWEVER TIMING AND  
STRENGTH ARE A QUESTION AS MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW  
REGIME. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THAT THIS PATTERN SIGNALS AT LEAST A  
TEMPORARY END TO THE DRY STRETCH AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.  
 
24  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE FIRE GROWING PATTERN HAS ARRIVED WITH  
THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES  
EARLY THIS MORNING ARE ABOVE 90% ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF EASTERN NM  
AND WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25"  
AND NEARLY 1" WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST  
PLAINS FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY OVER  
EASTERN NM ON EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. WESTERN NM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MIN HUMIDITY IN THE 15  
TO 20% RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM VERY GOOD  
ACROSS THE WEST TO EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EAST.  
 
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANQUIL DAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER  
MIN HUMIDITY. VENT RATES WILL RANGE FROM GOOD OVER THE WEST TO POOR  
ACROSS THE EAST UNDER LIGHT WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ON  
MONDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH COLORADO.  
HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH EXCELLENT  
VENT RATES ALL AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE  
UPPER WAVE WILL FORCE A MOIST, BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN NM  
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE  
FRONT WITH MUCH HIGHER MIN HUMIDITY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH  
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN NM. GAP WINDS  
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY EVEN USHER SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WEST  
TO THE CONT DIVIDE EARLY WEDNESDAY.  
 
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH  
REGARD TO THE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF WETTING PRECIPITATION AS  
SEVERAL UPPER WAVES ATTEMPT TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES. THE BULK OF MODEL SCENARIOS DO SUPPORT AT LEAST DEEPER  
MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LACK OF  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
GUYER  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES... NMZ528>531.  
 

 
 

 
 
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