895  
FXUS65 KABQ 271722 AAB  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
1122 AM MDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF CYCLE  
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED INTO NE NM THIS MORNING. IT WILL  
MAKE LITTLE HEADWAY THIS AFTERNOON AS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP  
ELSEWHERE. WESTERLY GUSTS NEAR 25 OR 30 KT WILL BE COMMON THIS  
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY RACE THROUGH THE EASTERN  
PLAINS WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT. BRIEF MVFR  
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. NEAR OR JUST AFTER 06Z, THE  
FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY  
CANYON WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KSAF AND KABQ. AWW MAY BE NEEDED AT  
KABQ, BUT CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE GUSTS NEAR 30KT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH  
WESTWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE AZ BORDER SUN MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE  
WINDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND  
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS NE NM. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE  
WITH ANY STORM ACROSS FAR NE NM.  
 
34  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SAT MAY 27 2017
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
VERY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER NM WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO  
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. A BACK DOOR COLD  
FRONT SAGGING INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN NM TODAY WILL FOCUS A FEW  
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST  
OVER EASTERN NM AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND  
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE  
RAINFALL. THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS GREATER CHANCES OF WETTING RAINFALL  
BY MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE WEST  
OF NM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND FORCE A DEEPER TAP OF MOISTURE OVER  
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
VERY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER NM WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A  
COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS ARE  
HOLDING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RACING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL  
ENTER FAR NORTHEASTERN NM THIS MORNING AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AN  
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALONG THIS  
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY WILL ASSIST SURGING THE FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS  
EASTERN NM TONIGHT. GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY  
WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS FROM ABQ SOUTHWARD.  
 
FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES  
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT  
BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW  
AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MOISTEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT  
THE VAST MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY  
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. 700-500MB LAYER WINDS  
ARE SHOWN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BY GUIDANCE TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND  
INCREASE MONDAY. THIS WILL IMPROVE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL IN  
THE HIGH TERRAIN.  
 
THE MORE IMPACTFUL CHANGES BEGIN TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP  
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND GULF MOISTURE DEEPENS FARTHER NORTHWEST  
INTO EASTERN NM. THE 12Z GEFS PW VALUES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY RISE  
INTO THE 0.75 TO 1.0" RANGE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM, WHICH IS 1-2  
STDEV ABOVE CLIMO. MODEL UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER INCREASES THROUGH THIS  
PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE UPPER FORCING TRANSLATES ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THE UPPER WAVE PERSISTING TO THE  
WEST OF NM THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF EJECTS A WEAK UPPER LOW  
ACROSS THE MEXICAN BORDER AND INTO WEST TX BY THURSDAY. FOR NOW,  
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN NM INTO  
FRIDAY THEN BACKED OFF BY NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS  
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL.  
 
GUYER  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND  
NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS  
AFTERNOON WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY'S READINGS, BUT STILL BREEZY  
FROM LAS VEGAS AND CLINES CORNERS TO NEAR TUCUMCARI; WHERE A FEW  
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NORTH AND  
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REACH 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN  
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD.  
THE FRONT WILL BRING A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WITH A CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND  
NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BACK DOOR COLD  
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND  
INTO WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING MOISTURE TO  
IMPROVE THERE AS WELL. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL TEND TO BE DRY AND GUSTY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON, BUT WETTING FOOTPRINTS SHOULD GROW SUNDAY NIGHT AS  
HUMIDITIES REBOUND FROM LOW DAYTIME READINGS. AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF  
WIDESPREAD HAINES OF 6 TODAY, THE COOLER AND MOISTER AIRMASS USHERED  
IN BY THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE HAINES VALUES TO TREND  
DOWNWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY.  
 
HAINES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AREAWIDE EARLY IN THE COMING WORK  
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA  
PENINSULA DRAWING A GRADUALLY RICHER RETURN FLOW OF LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL PROBABLY  
FEATURE ANOTHER MIX OF WET AND DRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS  
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THEN, DAILY ROUNDS OF MAINLY SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WETTING FOOTPRINTS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE  
TO BE PRETTY SMALL WEST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT MORE SIZABLE  
ELSEWHERE. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST  
THURSDAY, WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO DEPICT THE TROUGH FORMING A  
WEAK, CLOSED, UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK EAST  
NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL NM; POSSIBLY EXITING  
EASTWARD INTO TX ON FRIDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE UPPER  
TROUGH INITIALLY, BUT DOES HAVE IT SPEEDING UP AND EXITING EASTWARD  
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR OVER THE  
STATE ON FRIDAY WITH A DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A  
GREATER PROPORTION OF DRIER/GUSTIER CELLS. WITH THE DRIER AIR  
HAINES INDICES WILL PROBABLY TREND UPWARD AGAIN AT THE END OF THE  
WEEK.  
 
44  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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