547  
FXUS65 KABQ 192312 AAA  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
512 PM MDT TUE JUN 19 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
A MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NM  
AROUND 20/06Z, SURGING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL RESULT  
IN GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT KTCC LATE TONIGHT AND THEN AT  
KROW AROUND SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH BEHIND  
THE FRONT FOR LCL LOW CLOUDS TO PRODUCE MVFR AND/OR LOW VFR  
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SQUIRT THROUGH TIJERAS  
CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS AFTER SUNRISE BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN  
EAST OR SELY LESS THAN 10KT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS  
RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE EAST REMAIN EAST OR SELY.  
 
33  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT TUE JUN 19 2018
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
IN A TYPICAL JUNE FASHION, WESTERN NEW MEXICO HAS DRIED OUT WHILE THE  
EASTERN PLAINS OF THE STATE REMAINS MORE MOIST WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS.  
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT COULD INITIATE ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW  
MEXICO THIS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, MILD TO WARM OVERNIGHT  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. INTO WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A  
COUPLE MORE DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN FAVOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO EAST CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONE MORE DAY OF STORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN  
HALF OF NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY, BEFORE A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS  
OVERTAKES MOST OF THE STATE INTO FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE OBSERVED STATEWIDE WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE 90'S AND  
EVEN TRIPLE DIGITS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A SLOW-MOVING LOW HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO MT, REMAINING MOSTLY  
DISJOINTED FROM THE POLAR JET STREAM. THIS HAS DRAGGED SLIGHTLY  
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO NM WHILE THE SEEMINGLY SEMI-  
PERMANENT LEE SIDE SURFACE CYCLONE REMAINS INTACT. BREEZY WESTERLY  
AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON,  
AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DROP IN THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. IN  
NORTHEASTERN NM, A WARM FRONT BRIEFLY MADE AN APPEARANCE IGNITING A  
CUMULUS LINE ALONG IT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MATURED  
ALONG IT AS IT DRIFTED NORTHWARD INTO CO/KS. AS CONVECTION EXPANDS, A  
DEEPENING COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE OUTFLOW/FRONT  
SAGGING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW  
SUBSEQUENT STRONG CELLS COULD DEVELOP AS THIS BOUNDARY SAGS INTO OUR  
FORECAST AREA. OTHER OVERNIGHT CONCERNS WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR  
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AFTER STORMS DIMINISH IN THE NORTHEAST  
AND PERHAPS ALSO IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  
 
THE FRONT WOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS OF NM  
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS  
STRONGER OVER THE UPPER GULF OF CA. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT ENTHUSED  
ABOUT CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS  
WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF WHERE THE FRONT  
WILL STALL, AS IT WILL BE MORE STABLE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FLOW  
WILL BE TURNING INCREASINGLY EASTERLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE  
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS COULD  
YIELD SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, POSSIBLY UNDER-FORECAST BY THE  
MODELS. AS EVENING FALLS, A SECONDARY FRONTAL PUSH COULD SAG INTO THE  
NORTHEAST WHILE THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES OBSERVE A MORE PERSISTENT  
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING DESTABILIZATION, EVEN  
AFTER DAYTIME HEATING ENDS. SCATTERED POPS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE  
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS ON THURSDAY WILL HINGE ON MESOSCALE COLD POOLS  
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S STORMS, BUT GENERALLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF  
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE AT LEAST ISOLATED  
STORMS. THE WESTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF  
WARMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS RISE DUE TO PROXIMITY  
OF THE SWELLING SUBTROPICAL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN AZ.  
 
BY FRIDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BECOMES ELONGATED ON A WEST-EAST AXIS  
AS ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE  
NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS  
A LARGER AREA OF NM WITH TEMPERATURES BOOSTING A FEW MORE DEGREES.  
THIS WILL SEND THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE  
WITH A FEW LOCALES ECLIPSING THE 100 DEGREE MARK, INCLUDING THE  
ALBUQUERQUE AREA. THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL MIX THE DRYLINE  
EASTWARD WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION DUE TO THE  
PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS.  
 
THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE  
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC DISTURBANCE DROPPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  
ANY DIRECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BYPASS NM  
TO THE NORTH, BUT PRESSURE HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER AND ALLOW A BIT OF  
TEMPERATURE RELIEF. ANY STORM CHANCES WOULD BE RELIANT ON ENSUING  
BACK DOOR FRONTS, AND WHILE A COUPLE LOOK POSSIBLE, NONE APPEAR TO  
OFFER A DEEP, LONG-LASTING SURGE OF LOW LAYER MOISTURE NEEDED FOR A  
HEALTHY STORM COVERAGE.  
 
52  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY...  
 
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS NORTH OF NM  
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  
FRIDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY. EACH NIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO FEATURE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE  
EASTERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WITH THESE FRONTS WILL CAUSE HUMIDITIES TO  
STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THURSDAY NIGHT'S FRONT IS EXPECTED  
TO BE FAIRLY WEAK, AND SOME FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL  
DEVELOP FRIDAY, MIXING OUT THE MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON AND ENABLING  
SOME WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS  
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. A 992 MB SURFACE LOW IN SE CO, AND  
STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENABLE SURFACE WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40  
MPH IN THOSE AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB UP  
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND HAINES 6 BECOMES WIDESPREAD.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT'S FRONT SHOULD ENABLE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO RISE ABOVE  
15 PERCENT AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EAST CENTRAL  
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, HUMIDITIES WILL FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS  
AGAIN ON SUNDAY, AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ALONG AND NORTH  
OF I-40 AS A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EASTWARD OVER  
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME, GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PEAK  
AROUND 25 MPH ON SUNDAY, EXCEPT OVER 30 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS  
WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY FROM A FEW TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON  
SUNDAY AS A 6 HAINES INDEX REMAINS WIDESPREAD.  
 
A PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING SUNDAY NIGHT, AND A BACK DOOR FRONT  
ARRIVING MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL  
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH RELIEF FROM CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES  
ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN MONDAY AS SUNDAY'S UPPER LOW  
SHIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS.  
 
44  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
52  
 
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