147  
FXUS65 KABQ 270551 AAB  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
1151 PM MDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF CYCLE  
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH NORTHERN NM OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE  
CHANCES FOR LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND MTN SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND  
NORTHWEST NM. ISOLD TS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS  
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL AS MTN OBSCURATIONS. PRECIP WILL  
DIMINISH IN THE AFTN WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. WINDS WILL BE THE  
OTHER MAIN STORY TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID MORNING, AND BY  
MID AFTN, GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50KT ARE EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AREAS OF  
BLDU ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET, EXCEPT ACROSS  
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MTNS WHERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  
 
34  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...342 PM MDT WED APR 26 2017
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC STORM  
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL  
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE  
OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR 7500 FEET. A RATHER WINDY  
DAY IS IN STORE THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COLD  
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
90KT NWLY JET OVER THE PACNW VERY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY  
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NOSE OF THIS JET COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL  
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN  
THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 7500  
FEET WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS  
EAST OF CHAMA AND TIERRA AMARILLA. AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED NWLY JET  
MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, STRONG WEST  
WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT, WITH VERY STRONG TO HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE IN  
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HELD OFF ON UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH GIVEN  
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE SHIFTING THE CORE OF THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS  
NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE ON  
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
AN IMPRESSIVELY DEEP/STRONG AND COLD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS  
ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. NAM, ECMWF AND CANADIAN  
MODELS NOW DROPPING THE UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH OUT OF  
SOUTHWEST CO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING IT EWD THROUGH  
CENTRAL NM SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. MODELS COMING IN LINE FOR THE MOST  
PART BUT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE TRACK MAKE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN WHERE  
PRECIPITATION SETS UP WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL MODELS  
CONTINUE TO NAIL THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
SATURDAY. MAIN CHALLENGES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS  
WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. FORECAST  
700MB TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE 700MB LOW. THE  
FARTHER SOUTH THIS LOW IS AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH EASTERN NM SATURDAY,  
THE MORE COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN FROM THE NORTH TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS  
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM INCLUDING THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR SANTA  
ROSE TO THE TX LINE. AT ANY RATE, STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY  
WITH REGARD TO NOT ONLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW DROPS BUT WHERE  
IT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD  
THE FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT FROM ALL  
OPERATIONAL RUNS LESS THE GFS. WRAP-AROUND SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN  
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPS OR COLDER FOR  
MOST LOCATIONS. A HARD FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN  
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH  
PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN THE ABQ METRO POSSIBLE.  
 
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF BRING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE  
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH NM TUESDAY NIGHT  
OR WEDNESDAY.  
 
33  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
NOT A CLEAR-CUT SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY'S FORECAST CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS. LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE BORDERLINE MINIMUM  
HUMIDITY, SMALLER PORTIONS OF FORECAST ZONES IMPACTED, INCREASING  
CLOUD COVER RELATED TO AN APPROACHING JET STREAM AND MIXED HAINES OF  
4-5 ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF HAINES 6 IS FORECAST ACROSS A SMALL PORTION  
OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO/GALLINAS MOUNTAIN ZONE. SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER  
MAY BE PRESENT THURSDAY TO LIMIT FIRE BEHAVIOR, SO WILL DEFER  
UPGRADE DECISION TO LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE, THURSDAY IS LOOKING  
RATHER WINDY, WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE  
NORTH AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH.  
 
A COOLING/MOISTENING PHASE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AREAWIDE FRIDAY AS A  
COLD FRONT MAKES SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN  
ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LOW RETROGRADES THEN DEEPENS ACROSS COLORADO  
TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY 12Z SATURDAY. IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH  
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RAMP-UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND PEAK SATURDAY, WITH  
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION LIKELY  
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. IN PARTICULAR, THE NORTHERN  
MOUNTAINS AND RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA COULD PILE-UP A FOOT OR MORE.  
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST  
TO DIP BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MANY LOWER  
ELEVATION LOCALES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL EXPERIENCE A HARD  
FREEZE.  
 
A WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY  
WITH, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING AT OR  
BELOW NORMAL UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH NOT FORECAST  
AT THIS TIME, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS TUESDAY GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. BOTH THE 12Z  
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF  
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT DOWN  
OUR EASTERN PLAINS AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION  
BACK TO THE FRONT RANGE.  
 
11  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING  
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ106>109.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM MDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING  
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ521-523-524-526-539-540.  
 

 
 

 
 
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