926
FXUS65 KABQ 240915
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2008
DISCUSSION
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON EXTENT OF IMPACT FROM REMNANTS OF DOLLY ON NM.
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CA TO TX. TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
CENTERS OF HIGH PRESSURE...MAKING MOVEMENT OF STORMS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE. REGARDLESS...THEY WILL AGAIN BE SLOW MOVERS TODAY WITH
SOME HEAVY RAINS LIKELY. MAIN EMPHASIS WILL BE OVER THE NW THIRD
OR HALF OF THE STATE. DRY SLOT SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE NE.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM DOLLY ALREADY MOVING INTO SE NM.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER N TX AND
OK FRI AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR DOLLYS MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STATE. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS...AND WILL
INCREASE POPS SOME ACROSS OUR SRN ZNS.
ALL EYES WILL BE ON WHATS LEFT OF DOLLY THIS WEEKEND AND ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON NM. BECOMING MORE CERTAIN WE WILL BE AFFECTED...
MAINLY OVER THE SW AND W...AS CONSENSUS OF MODELS BRING THE LOW
TOWARD THE NM BOOTHEEL. WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS
SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WILL HOLD OFF THIS SHIFT WITH THE DAY CREW
TAKING A HARD LOOK AT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND.
WE MAY CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED WITH EXTRA MOISTURE NEXT WEEK AS GFS
AND ESPECIALLY EUROPEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW A CIRCULATION ROTATING ALL
THE WAY AROUND THE STATE FOR THE EARLY AND MID PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED AS VERY ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME. CHJ
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORED
AREAS WILL BE THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE...INCLUDING
TAF SITES KFMN...KGUP AND KSAF. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS GUSTS UP
TO 40 KTS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 34
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LESS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW AND GENERALLY TOWARD
THE WEST...HOWEVER...STORMS ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY DEVIATE FROM
THIS MOTION. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
APPEARS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
STATE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE MOISTURE SURGE. WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
TAP FOR THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE WEST UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 34
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 92 64 93 65 / 20 30 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 87 57 88 58 / 30 20 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 88 57 87 58 / 30 30 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 88 63 89 60 / 30 30 30 30
CHAMA........................... 83 47 83 48 / 30 30 40 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 86 55 85 54 / 30 30 40 30
RED RIVER....................... 74 44 75 42 / 30 30 50 40
TAOS............................ 87 53 86 53 / 20 40 40 30
SANTA FE........................ 87 57 86 59 / 30 30 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 89 59 89 60 / 20 30 30 20
ESPANOLA........................ 92 61 92 59 / 20 30 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 91 68 91 68 / 20 30 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 93 65 93 65 / 20 30 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 89 65 90 66 / 20 30 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 91 68 91 68 / 20 30 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 93 66 91 65 / 20 20 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 86 56 88 57 / 30 30 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 88 59 88 60 / 20 30 30 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 89 61 87 61 / 20 20 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 81 54 76 55 / 20 20 30 30
RATON........................... 91 57 90 55 / 10 20 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 86 56 85 56 / 20 30 30 20
ROY............................. 90 61 88 64 / 10 10 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 94 64 93 64 / 10 10 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 96 64 93 63 / 10 10 20 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 96 67 94 67 / 5 5 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 97 67 93 67 / 5 5 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 93 66 91 67 / 5 5 10 5
PORTALES........................ 94 65 91 66 / 5 5 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 96 68 91 68 / 5 5 20 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
40/34
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