966  
FXUS65 KABQ 191127 AAA  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
527 AM MDT TUE SEP 19 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF CYCLE  
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL  
BE ON THE UPTREND THIS MORNING, WITH STRONG SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED  
MIDDAY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON, THANKS IN PART TO A DEEPENING LEE  
SIDE TROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST AT  
KGUP, KLVS AND KTCC WHERE GUSTS WILL HIT UP BETWEEN 35 AND 40KTS.  
AROUND 30KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES. 40  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT TUE SEP 19 2017
 
   
..WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SOME AREAS TODAY
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY  
AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND  
SOUTHWEST. GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, AS  
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR INTERSTATE 40.  
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT DRAWING MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWARD OVER  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO STARTING THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL  
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE  
UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN  
ROCKIES. DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NEW  
MEXICO AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD, BUT A  
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN US FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY  
EJECTING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WILL STEER 500-700 MB LAYER AVERAGED WINDS IN THE 20-40 KT  
RANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE INDUCING A SURFACE LEE TROUGH  
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO FAVOR  
WESTERN AREAS WHERE FUELS WILL BE DRIER, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS  
SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EAST CENTRAL  
PLAINS.  
 
AFTER A BREAK FROM THE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ON  
WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BECOME  
BREEZY AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO  
MOVE SLOWLY INLAND. HOWEVER, HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER NEW  
MEXICO AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. BOTH THE  
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FLOWING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO  
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FROM 3/4  
TO 1 3/4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS, WITH LOCALLY OVER  
2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS. THE SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES LOOK FAVORABLE  
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING  
WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO DIVE  
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, RE-INVIGORATING  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN  
CHAIN. SINCE THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF NEW  
MEXICO, THE SHEAR PROFILE MAY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS  
AT LEAST OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS ON MONDAY.  
 
44  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF  
STRONG WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THEY WILL COMBINE WITH A WARM AND  
DRY AIRMASS TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. HAVE  
DECIDED TO UPGRADE ZONES 101 AND 105 TO A RED FLAG WARNING, BUT NOT  
THE EASTERN ZONES. RECENT RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST HAS MOISTENED UP THE  
0-10CM SUB-SURFACE SOIL AND FINE FUELS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO RAPID  
FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD. ALSO ONLY LOW TO MODERATE HAINES INDICES IN  
THE EAST. IT HAS BEEN DRIER IN THE NORTHWEST AND WHILE FUELS ARE  
STILL ALIVE, THE FINE FUELS ARE DRY. BOTTOM LINE, THIS SHOULD NOT BE  
A HIGH IMPACT EVENT DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.  
 
A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT BUT WASH  
OUT WEDNESDAY. SO, ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP, BUT WINDS WILL  
BE LESS AS THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY OVER THE  
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND AN HOUR OR TWO  
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED, BUT SHOULD BE  
VERY ISOLATED. VENT RATES WILL BE LESS WEDNESDAY IN MOST AREAS, WITH  
A SMALL PATCH OF FAIR TO POOR RATES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.  
 
A SHIFT TO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED FOR THE END OF  
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOT AS EXCITED ABOUT BRINGING IN A  
LOT OF MOISTURE RIGHT AWAY ON THURSDAY, BUT MORE OF A SEEPAGE  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL  
MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON,  
ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALL OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY INTO  
FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE EAST.  
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER WHILE HUMIDITIES COME UP, WITH GOOD TO  
EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.  
 
A CLOSED LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST THE REST OF THIS  
WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT  
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND ACTUALLY BRING SOME DRYING TO THE WEST,  
WHILE THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE. ADDITIONAL ENERGY LEFT BEHIND  
THE TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA CA EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO  
NM. WITH MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM ALL DIRECTIONS IT SHOULD CONTINUE  
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AT LEAST IN THE EAST.  
AFTER THAT? IF THE GFS IS RIGHT A REMNANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL  
BRING COPIOUS MOISTURE TO THE STATE LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND  
CMC ARE LESS CONVINCED, KEEPING IT TO OUR SOUTH.  
 
CHJ  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-523-529-532>534.  
 
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ101-105.  
 

 
 

 
 
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