393  
FXUS65 KABQ 252353 AAA  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
553 PM MDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TAKING AIM ON NW AND NC PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST  
AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NW THIRD  
OF THE STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN BANDED  
PRECIPITATION WITH SOME MVFR IMPACTS AT FMN/GUP WILL OCCUR THIS  
EVENING. CANT RULE OUT SOME TS IMPACTS BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THAT IN  
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MTN TOP OBSCD WILL IMPACT THE NC MTNS  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME RESIDUAL LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT  
GUP AND PERHAPS FMN FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION EVENT LATER TONIGHT.  
KEPT SOME SCT NEAR 2000 DECKS TO SHOW THAT POSSIBILITY. ALSO  
EXPECTING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND DIRECTIONS CHANGING FROM A  
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY DIRECTION. SOME BREEZINESS DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. OTHER THAN SOME  
WIND...CONDITIONS WILL BE BETTER ON SUNDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.  
 
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PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT SAT MAR 25 2017
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY  
WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN THIRD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS. MONDAY WILL SEE A SHORT BREAK,  
THEN A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AS WELL AS SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY WARM  
SYSTEM SO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR AND ABOVE 8000 FEET. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS  
QUEUED UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SWATH OF RELATIVELY THICK HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM NW AND NORTH  
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TRAVERSING  
EASTWARD THIS EVENING, AS SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE NW AND NORTH  
CENTRAL. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING AS WELL. ANY SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVELS ABOVE  
7500 FT OR SO AS MODELS DON'T SHOW MUCH COLD AIR WITH THE  
DISTURBANCE. ONE CHANGE, THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FASTER SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON, SO NORTHWEST WINDS EAST CENTRAL LOOK TO BE GUSTY BUT SUB  
ADVISORY.  
 
NOT MUCH OF A BREAK MONDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE,  
THEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO AFFECT THE NORTHWEST. WHILE  
THIS SYSTEM ISN'T BRINGING MUCH COLD AIR WITH IT, IT LOOKS PRETTY  
WET. SNOW COULD BE PLENTIFUL BUT AGAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET OR SO ALONG  
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE DRYLINE MAY BE ACTIVE TUESDAY AS WELL OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST LOCALES.  
 
THERE WILL AGAIN BE A BRIEF BREAK THURSDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER STORM  
ROLLS INTO THE STATE, IN TIME FOR APRIL 1, BUT IT MAY TRACK FARTHER  
SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NM SO THE BACK DOOR FRONT AND UPPER DYNAMICS MAY  
NOT MESH AS WELL. HIGHS RECOVER SOME THURSDAY BUT TREND 5 TO 10  
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO A VERY  
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IN THE  
NEAR-TERM, MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE STILL ON TAP FOR  
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. 60 CORRIDOR. AN  
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE  
WEST TONIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS SHARPLY TO WEST AND NORTHWEST. A FEW  
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WITH  
SPOTTY WETTING AMOUNTS EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON  
HIGHER PEAKS NEAR THE CO BORDER.  
 
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NM  
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. TEMPS WILL TREND A BIT COOLER BUT STILL  
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. A DRY SLOT ON THE BACK SIDE OF  
THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRIVE SURFACE HUMIDITIES INTO THE 10-15% RANGE  
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST  
CENTRAL PLAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CREATE A  
TIMING ISSUE REGARDING CONFIDENCE ON A RED FLAG WARNING SO WILL GO  
WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. THIS FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH AND END ANY  
CRITICAL CONDITIONS AROUND SUNSET. THEN HUMIDITIES RECOVERIES TREND  
TO EXCELLENT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM.  
 
MONDAY WILL FEATURE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL THEN SOUTHWEST BY  
LATE DAY. MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ALONG AND  
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED A CLOSER LOOK AS  
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MIXING AND STRONGER WINDS WITH MORE  
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
THE WETTER WAVE TRAIN BEGINS TUESDAY WITH SEVERAL MORE SUBSTANTIAL  
UPPER LOWS CROSSING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NM INTO THE WEEKEND.  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TREND COOLER AND ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL  
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED RAIN  
AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM HAS  
THE BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIP  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VERY HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE  
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS ABOVE 8000'. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IS  
ON THE HORIZON FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS A FARTHER SOUTH  
TRACK TO THE LOW CENTER.  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...  
NMZ108.  
 

 
 

 
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