086  
FXUS65 KABQ 271132 AAA  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
532 AM MDT THU JUL 27 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF CYCLE  
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO BE LOCATED OVER NM NEXT 24 HRS WITH A VERY MOIST  
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER  
CENTRAL AND ERN NM AT 11Z TO PERSIST AND CONT TO SPREAD WWD. MTS  
OCCASIONALLY OBSSCURED IN BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE  
STRONGER STORMS, WHICH WILL ALSO CONTAIN WND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT.  
CELL MOTION TO BE GENERALLY TO THE EAST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND TO  
THE WEST OVER SRN NM.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT THU JUL 27 2017
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE STAGE IS SET FOR AN ACTIVE MONSOON BURST WEATHER PATTERN TODAY  
AND TONIGHT. THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR  
FLASH FLOODING. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA  
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF  
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH. THE PATTERN IS  
EXPECTED TO TURN WETTER AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLIER  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FOR THE NEAR TERM. MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST WITH  
THEIR DEPICTION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE VALUES PEAKING  
THIS EVENING. THE AFTERNOON ABQ SOUNDING SHOULD BE NEAR IF NOT EXCEED  
RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS. MOISTURE WONT BE THE LIMITER IN  
THIS NEAR TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT...THE CATALYST FOR PARCEL LIFT WILL BE  
THE MAIN DETERMINATION FOR AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL AND AREAS  
THAT DONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING A DISTINCT MID  
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE  
ALONE SHOULD CREATE AMPLE LIFT FOR HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT. TOPOGRAPHY  
CONVERGENCE, OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO  
AID IN THE LIFTING PROCESS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WITHIN A HIGH  
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY ENVIRONMENT SPELLS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND  
A FLASH FLOODING THREAT. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE MONSOON BURST  
CASES...HARD TO PIN POINT SPECIFIC AREAS SO IT IS BETTER TO GO LARGER  
WITH THE WATCH BOX. WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A RATHER LARGE FLASH  
FLOOD WATCH STARTING AT NOON AND LASTING THROUGH 6 AM FRI 28TH. EVEN  
BENIGN CELLS ON RADAR WILL PRODUCE A QUICK HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF  
AN INCH. WFO PUB PROVIDED INTEL THAT DUAL POL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES  
WERE UNDERDONE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT THUS INDICATING THE NEAR  
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WE WILL MOVE INTO ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE  
AREA. THE ONLY REAL LIMITER TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS THE LACK OF  
WIDESPREAD MOIST SOILS ALTHOUGH THAT HAS CHANGED THE PAST 24  
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW, NC AND NE AREAS AND EXPECTED  
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IN AREAS.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STABLE AND DRIER MID LEVEL LAYER MOVING  
INTO SE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY IMPACTING  
MORE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE  
HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH AS A  
RESULT. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH THE FRIDAY DAY PERIOD AS HEAVIER  
STORMS WILL TRY TO FORM ALONG THE PWAT GRADIENT. DECIDED TO GO A  
LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND A LITTLE  
WARMER ACROSS SC AND SE AREAS.  
 
MODELS HAVE SEEMED TO UP THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT  
TO SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC WEATHER  
PATTERN THAT SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS  
MEANS AN INCREASE IN HEAVY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SOME DRYING  
EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THAT IS PRETTY FAR OUT THERE FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
50  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS  
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A  
SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL  
SAG SOUTH AND WESTWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY, LIKELY SPARKING OR  
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG IT'S PATH. DURING THE WEEKEND, 2 DISTINCT  
HIGH CENTERS MAY REDEVELOP, ONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SECOND  
TO OUR EAST OVER TEXAS.  
 
CELL MOTION TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF  
INTERSTATE 40, WHILE TO THE SOUTH, MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE WEST.  
SOME ERRATIC MOVEMENT WILL ALSO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND  
TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY, CELL MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH  
OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO, WHILE OVER THE SOUTH, MOVEMENT WILL TEND TO  
BE TO THE NORTHWEST. THROUGH FRIDAY, CELLS WON'T MOVE VERY QUICKLY,  
SO WITH THE NEAR TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIR MASS AND THE SLOW  
MOVEMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING ARE LIKELY.  
 
VENT RATES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY GOOD RATES, WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH  
AND WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW  
DEGREES.  
 
SOME DRIER AIR MAY STILL SEEP INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY  
SATURDAY, SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  
ANOTHER FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND  
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY, IGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT,  
AND HELPING TO OBLITERATE ANY DRIER AIR THAT MANAGED TO WORK INTO  
THE STATE EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND. YET ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE  
EAST AND CENTRAL TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAY  
STRETCH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE BIG BEND REGION, BUT THERE  
MAY BE MULTIPLE HIGH CENTERS FROM DAY TO DAY. DAILY ROUNDS OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ504>509-511>534-537-539.  
 

 
 

 
 
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