162  
FXUS65 KABQ 162349 AAA  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
549 PM MDT THU AUG 16 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL INTO LOWER  
ELEVATION AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY DOWNBURST  
WINDS WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL  
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. AN INCREASED NUMBER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE  
WITH LARGER HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NEW  
MEXICO.  
 
52  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT THU AUG 16 2018
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON  
FRIDAY AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE  
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ON SATURDAY,  
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO, BUT IT WILL  
REMAIN ACTIVE ELSEWHERE AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  
SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL  
BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
AS DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT  
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE  
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG EAST CANYON  
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE LIKELY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE  
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN NOTED,  
BUT OVERALL STORMS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WELL-BEHAVED. STORM MOTION  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT  
ERRATIC, SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PERSIST.  
 
ON FRIDAY, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT  
WESTWARD OVER ARIZONA. MEANWHILE, PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND  
IT APPEARS A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH  
AND CROSS NORTHEAST NM. THOUGH STORMS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE, THEY MAY  
BE MORE ENHANCED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A FEW STRONG, OR PERHAPS  
SEVERE, STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT, SO  
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN.  
 
ON SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND  
IT'S INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT ALL THE WAY IN NEW MEXICO. ALONG AND  
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP  
ACROSS NM. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL  
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE, AND  
NEAR 35KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH  
AXIS SHOULD YIELD SOME STORMS WILL LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS IN THIS AREA. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS, MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR  
WILL FILTER INTO NM, AND THIS WILL QUICKLY SHUT DOWN ANY REMAINING  
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, AND BY  
SUNRISE SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST. ALSO IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH, A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN  
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL  
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND  
MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT  
DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE ON SUNDAY. MUCH OF MONDAY WILL BE QUIET AS  
WELL, BUT A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST.  
 
AFTER MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK, THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED AROUND  
THE AZ/NM BORDER. MOISTURE BELOW THE HIGH WILL RECYCLE IN THE FORM OF  
DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MAY BE  
PERIODICALLY ENHANCED ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AS WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUND  
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  
 
34  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL NM TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMING ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE  
UPPER HIGH WILL REDUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, BUT  
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND  
NORTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY  
MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
SLOWER MOVING THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF  
WESTERN NM, WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND  
FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE  
POOR TO FAIR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST  
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST  
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH  
VALUES NEAR 40 PERCENT. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST FRIDAY  
AND CIRCULATE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.  
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BUMP UP SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LIGHT AND  
RESULT IN THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN STRONGER STORMS.  
VENTILATION RATES FRIDAY WILL BE FAIR ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND  
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND MAINLY POOR ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH  
WILL RETREAT FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY, WHILE A  
POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL  
CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST  
CENTRAL NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS  
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM, SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH  
NUMEROUS COVERAGE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A FEW STORMS  
IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WIND.  
 
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY WITH  
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND  
LOWER TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS. A  
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY,  
KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT. COVERAGE  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED SUNDAY WITH  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE  
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER NM MONDAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
28  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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