698  
FXUS65 KABQ 211835 AAB  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
1135 AM MST TUE NOV 21 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF CYCLE  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, A  
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY/TONIGHT  
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS AT KLVS, KTCC AND KROW. THE  
FRONT WILL CREATE LIGHT EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WINDS AT KSAF AND KABQ  
THIS EVENING.  
 
11  
 

 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST TUE NOV 21 2017
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
NEW MEXICO DRY THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY  
FOR THE REST OF NOVEMBER. ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE  
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY,  
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW NEAR RECORD TO  
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY.  
WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
BATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO  
THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE  
RGV THIS EVENING ON A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND. A FEW SHOWERS  
COULD DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY IN  
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT, BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  
ARE QUITE SLIM.  
 
HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT COOLER BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.  
TEMPERATURES WARM THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR  
SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN  
CHAIN FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN PLAINS  
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF COOLING, BUT THE WEST  
WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE TEMPERATURE-WISE.  
 
BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL HAVE DRIFTED TO CHIHUAHUA,  
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND  
INTO COLORADO.  
 
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO ZONAL  
THEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND PERSIST NEXT TUESDAY THANKS TO A DRY COLD  
FRONT PLUNGING THROUGH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. A  
STRONGER SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE END OF NOVEMBER/DEC 1  
COULD BRUSH NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, FAVORING THE  
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, THIS  
SYSTEM WOULD BRING WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A WEAK, FAST-MOVING TROUGH WILL DIVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY FROM  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING TO CENTRAL TX BY LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH  
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AND REACH THE  
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND  
THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS  
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL  
MOUNTAINS, IT WILL WEAKEN AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS  
THAN 15 MPH. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND AN INCREASE IN  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT. VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS,  
BUT ONLY FAIR TO POOR TO THE WEST.  
 
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER WESTERN AZ AND NORTHWESTERN MX WILL  
EXPAND EASTWARD OVER NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL  
PRODUCE UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL INCREASE FURTHER AND WILL  
RANGE FROM 6 TO 17 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW HIGH TEMPERATURES  
NEARING RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE. VENTILATION WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY WILL BE POOR WITH LIGHT WINDS PREDOMINATING.  
 
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY, AS A TROUGH IN  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES RAPIDLY MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO  
SHIFT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. A  
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM FRIDAY. STRONGER WINDS  
ALOFT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN NM WILL PRODUCE BREEZY  
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS  
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPING WEST TO  
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE  
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS 15 TO 22 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE TO FAIR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM FRIDAY, BUT  
WILL STILL BE POOR ELSEWHERE.  
 
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS TO THE  
RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL  
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE EASTERN PLAINS, BUT HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY,  
AS THE UPPER HIGH AMPLIFIES AND MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NM AND  
WEST TX. VENTILATION WILL BE POOR SATURDAY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD  
FRONT AND WILL RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS WINDS  
BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALOFT.  
 
28  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
33  
 
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