377
FXUS65 KLKN 060925
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
225 AM PDT SUN JUL 6 2008
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SILVER STATE TODAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION MONDAY...BRINGING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
CLOUDS THICKENING OVER
HUMBOLDT COUNTY ATTM WITH ENTRY OF SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN CWFA.
SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LATEST RUNS...HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE ENCROACHING UPON CWFA ATTM IS CARVING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THAN PREVIOUS MODELS DEPICTED. SHORTWAVE SHOULD
MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY.
THINK CLOUDS TODAY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION...KEEP MAX HEATING
MINIMIZED...AND SUBDUE WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING AND CONVERGENCE COUPLET ABSENT ON GFS AND
MARGINAL ON NAM. EXPECT MID-HI LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MAXIMUM HEATING TIMES ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE NO GREATER THAN 0.6 INCHES IN THE NORTH AND BELOW 0.5
INCHES OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. NAM MODEL IS SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY
THAN GFS. WILL TRIM AREA DOWN WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND RETAIN FIRE WEATHER WATCH. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY EXITS THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A COOLER NIGHT THAN THE LAST
FEW...MORE VALLEYS WILL FALL INTO MID TO UPPER 40S. A DRIER REGIME
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WANE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 90S. LW
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND WILL LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK
WHEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CWA. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. IPPI
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY
COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
THUNDERSTORM AREAL COVERAGE IN ZONE 455 TO VALIDATE RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN QUESTION DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. FIRE WEATHER WATCH
CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE
TO PROVIDE A RETURN TO HOT...DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
LW
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 455
FROM SUNDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LW
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