019
FXUS65 KLKN 252230
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
330 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE GREAT BASIN
STARTING SUNDAY WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS CHANGE COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK...AFFECTING MOSTLY NORTHERN
NEVADA.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW WEST OF OREGON MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THIS LOW IS DRAWING IN SEVERAL SMALLER SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHWEST NEVADA TONIGHT. ALREADY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED CU FIELD OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA WITH A MID LEVEL CASTELLANUS FIELD OVER
NORTHEAST NEVADA. SO...SOME LITTLE INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM-ISH...MAINLY IN THE 70S...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL LOW. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHES OVER
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING
AMPLE HUMIDITY TO THE REGION...STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALAS...MID LEVEL UVV IS FAIR AT
BEST...AND SPOTTY IN COVERAGE. UPPER SUPPORT IS FAIR AS WELL WITH
STRONG JET STILL WELL WEST AND PROGGED TO WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. STILL...MODELS ALL AGREE ON A WIDESPREAD PRECIP FIELD
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN NEVADA...LESS SO OVER CENTRAL NEVADA IN
THE SHORT TERM.
FOR MEMORIAL DAY...EXPECTING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CENTRAL AND EASTER NEVADA
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINLESS BARBEQUES. INSTABILITY IS WEAK
TO FAIR AND SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER...IF ANY. WILL WATCH
THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IN SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER DEVELOPING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES...IN THE 70S...BUT THE LOW TEMPS WILL WARM UP WITH
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM. FOR STARTERS...BOTH MODELS NOW HAVE A POTENT NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIRLY AMPLE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THIS
GREATER CERTAINTY...MADE LARGE INCREASES TO POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BEST FGEN IS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH AXIS ACTUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD AND SOME SUN POTENTIALLY TRIES
TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. THUS...EXPECT A DECENT PERIOD OF RAIN
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH A MUCH MORE SHOWERY PATTERN LATER IN THE
DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT BOTH MODELS HAVE OUR REGION IN A BIT OF A
LULL...ALMOST A WEAK RIDGE...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS NEXT ONE ISN'T AS STRONG BUT STILL DECENT
CONSISTENCY SO AGAIN UPPED POPS. FGEN IS A BIT MORE DIFFUSE BUT
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SO STILL HAVE A MORE
SHOWERY/THUNDERY AFTERNOON THAN MORNING. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
APPEARS TO MOVE IN LATER THURSDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT AS MUCH
IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS ONE THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO. THUS...DID NOT
MAKE MUCH ALTERATION TO POPS IN THIS PERIOD BUT DID STILL MAKE AN
INCREASE. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO PUSH A
RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA THOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT. ALL-IN-ALL NO REASON TO HAVE MUCH PRECIP BY
THIS DAY HOWEVER SO KEPT POPS LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE INCLEMENT
PATTERN...BUT NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOKS PARTICULARLY CHILLY SO
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET. RCM
AVIATION
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. MAIN CONCERN IS SOME BIT OF GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS MAY REACH 30
KNOTS BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH HIGHER. RCM
FIRE WEATHER
VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF ZONE 467. A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED RH AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOSTLY NORTHERN NEVADA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MONDAY. OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK: A VERY GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF
WETTING RAINS IN MOST FIRE ZONES WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 455
AND 457 BEING THE LEAST LIKELY TO RECIEVE MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY
EVENINGS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MONDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
98/93/93/98
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