534  
FXUS65 KLKN 162157  
AFDLKN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
257 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NEVADA AS WELL  
AS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE RETURNING TO SEASONAL  
NORMALS WITH A RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING  
ACROSS NEVADA BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS  
WILL BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY WITH DRY STORMS NEAR THE PERIPHERY  
BECOMING WETTER NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN AREA  
OF CONVECTION WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE  
COUNTIES WITH A SMALLER AREA OF CONVECTION IN ELKO COUNTY. THE  
SYSTEM IS NOT HEAVY ON MOISTURE SO NOT EXPECTING A LARGE AMOUNT OF  
PRECIPITATION FROM ANY INDIVIDUAL STORMS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL  
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NEVADA THROUGH TODAY WITH DRY  
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS BY  
TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL  
MOISTURE THAT MAY FLARE A DRY THUNDERSTORMS OR VIRGA SHOWERS OVER  
SOME CENTRAL NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGES DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO SEASONAL  
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY AND LOW 90S  
TOMORROW.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM MODELS ARE  
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND ARE KEEPING A DECENT RUN TO  
RUN CONSISTENCY. THIS RAISES CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE  
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH IS  
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE CALIFORNIAN COAST STARTING THIS WEEKEND  
AND CONTINUING TO DO SO SLOWLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE  
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP INTO  
NEVADA WITH THE GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH. THE MOISTURE  
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER MOSTLY CENTRAL NEVADA THIS  
SATURDAY AND ENCOMPASS THE WHOLE CWA BY SUNDAY. THE AMOUNT OF  
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD KEEP THE  
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIER AND MORE ISOLATED IN  
NATURE. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME WETTER CONVECTION WITH  
SLOWER MOVING LONGER DURATION STORMS BUT THESE WILL BE EXCEPTION.  
THE DYNAMIC OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE WEAK JET WILL NOT BE  
CONTRIBUTING MUCH TO THE THUNDERSTORMS SO ONLY EXPECTING  
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX HEATING AND DIMINISHING  
RAPIDLY DURING THE NIGHT ONLY TO REPEAT DURING THE NEXT AFTERNOON.  
A LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTION IN NORTHERN NEVADA WILL BE THE  
RIDGE WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH STABILITY TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS.  
OTHERWISE CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT  
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
80S AND LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR KELY  
AND KTPH WITH THE CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AND CEASING TONIGHT.  
CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE WEAK  
DISTURBANCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KTPH  
AND KELY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS  
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS FIRE ZONES 457, 454 AND 455 AS A  
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. SLOW THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS UNDER PRECIPITATION  
CORE BUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN THREATS.  
DRIER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM  
AND IN FASTER MOVING CELLS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE INTO THE JARBIDGE AREA, PRIMARILY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF  
ZONE 469 AND 470. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL AFTER TODAY AS  
DRIER, WARMER CONDITIONS RESUME THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION.  
DAYTIME RH WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS WESTERN FIRE  
ZONES 467, 468 AND 454 ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH RH RECOVERIES  
IN THE 40S AND 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING. MONSOON MOISTURE ALONG  
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND  
IN RESPONSE TO A WEST COAST SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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