010  
FXUS65 KLKN 230104  
AFDLKN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
604 PM PDT WED MAR 22 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A STORM SYSTEM IS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN  
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE SILVER STATE. SATELLITE AND  
RADAR SHOW ONGOING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN  
THIS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  

 
   
UPDATE
 
UPDATED TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 5500 FEET ACROSS  
MUCH OF ELKO COUNTY AS SNOW REPORTED IN SPRING CREEK AND SNOW  
MIXING WITH RAIN IN ELKO.  

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED AT 217 PM /  
 
SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM IS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN  
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE SILVER STATE. SATELLITE AND  
RADAR SHOW ONGOING RAIN AND SNOW WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER  
STORM SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN THIS FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY  
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN CAUSING UNSETTLED WEATHER IN  
THE SILVER STATE. THIS IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF VALLEY RAIN AND  
SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SATELLITE SHOWS ONGOING AFTERNOON  
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF THE DAYTIME  
HEATING AND INSTABILITY FROM THE STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS A CORRIDOR  
OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES  
FROM SOUTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF ELKO  
COUNTY. THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE  
FAIRLY HIGH WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS  
EXPECTED. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE RUBY  
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET IN WHITE PINE,  
SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES. THE  
TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE SHOWERS  
TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAINLY BE A  
DRY PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE  
GREAT BASIN. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTRUDE INTO THE  
GREAT BASIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND  
POSSIBLY AN EARLY SPRINKLE OR TWO.  
 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL  
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SPREADING SHOWERS FROM THE WEST TO  
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY  
SYSTEM WITH RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE  
SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM AROUND  
7000 FEET WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST VALLEY SNOW FREE. THE INSTABILITY  
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TO FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME SO THUNDERSTORMS  
WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION  
IN THE MOUNTAINS IN WHITE PINE COUNTY MAY WARRANT ANOTHER  
ELEVATION BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE FUTURE. THE SHOWERS  
WILL BEGIN TO TAPPER OF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ACROSS  
CENTRAL AND FAR EASTERN NV SATURDAY NIGHT TAPER OFF INTO SUNDAY  
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY. THERE  
WILL BE ANOTHER SYSTEM PUNCHING IN FROM THE NW LATER ON SUNDAY  
WITH VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MOVING INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY  
BEFORE SUNSET. MODERATE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD  
ACROSS MOST OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY. REINFORCING ENERGY ON MONDAY WILL EXPAND PRECIPITATION  
OVER NORTHERN AND INTO CENTRAL NV. MODELS ARE COMING INTO  
AGREEMENT WITH A SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP  
BETWEEN ROUGHLY GABBS AND JARBIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE  
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CENTRAL NV SHOWER  
ACTIVITY CONTINUES ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW  
PASSING OVER CA/NV EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF  
RIDGING AND SHOWERS ENDING.  
 
AVIATION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE  
SMALL HAIL, BRIEF MODERATE RAIN, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH  
REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIG LIKELY. VALLEY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS  
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM  
WEST TO EAST EARLY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ACROSS  
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NV INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF KELY.  
 
HYDROLOGY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE VALLEY RAIN  
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER  
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO BRING MORE VALLEY RAIN  
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. CREEKS MAY SEE SOME PERIODIC RESPONSES, HOWEVER  
THE HUMBOLDT RIVER SHOULD SEE MUCH LESS OF AN IMPACT.  
 
BRUNEAU RIVER: MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, WITH THE RIVER NOW  
RECEDING SLIGHTLY.  
 
HUMBOLDT RIVER (NEAR ELKO): IS AT LEAST A HALF A FOOT BELOW MINOR  
FLOOD STAGE, WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE THE PAST 3 DAYS. NO NEW  
FLOODING IS FORECAST.  
 
HUMBOLDT RIVER (AT CARLIN): IS BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE, WITH NO  
NEW FLOODING FORECAST.  
 
HUMBOLDT RIVER (AT PALISADE): IS FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT  
WHICH WOULD PUT IT IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE. A GRADUAL RISE IS  
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIVER REMAINING IN MINOR  
FLOOD STAGE.  
 
HUMBOLDT RIVER (AT BATTLE MOUNTAIN): IS IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE,  
AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE  
RIVER REMAINING IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.  
 
HUMBOLDT RIVER (AT COMUS): IS IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, AND IS  
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIVER  
REMAINING IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.  
 
MARYS RIVER: IS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND FORECAST TO GRADUALLY  
RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIVER REMAINING IN MINOR  
FLOOD STAGE.  
 
MARTIN CREEK: HAS RECEDED BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE, AND IS EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE  
FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT HAS  
BEEN CANCELLED.  
 
ALL OTHER MONITORED CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW MINOR FLOOD  
STAGE AND FORECAST TO REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR  
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-RUBY  
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND  
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.  
 

 
 

 
 
91/99/96  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NV Page Main Text Page