560  
FXUS65 KLKN 172146  
AFDLKN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
246 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
AFTER SOME EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, THE WEATHER WILL BE  
STORM FREE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY  
 
UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND DRIER AIR WILL  
BE PUSHING IN BEHIND IT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON JUST  
AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR, MAINLY IN EASTERN NEVADA. A FEW STORMS  
HAVE ALREADY BEEN STRONG AND A FEW MORE MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN  
NORTHEAST NEVADA WHERE THE BEST SHEER EXISTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE  
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING.  
 
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND TONIGHT BEHIND  
THE TROF AND UNDER THE DRIER AIR AND SOME OF THE COLDEST VALLEYS  
WILL DROP INTO THE 40'S.  
 
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
UNFORTUNATELY, EXPERIMENTAL SMOKE MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL ALLOW  
SMOKE TO FILTER BACK INTO NORTHERN NEVADA TOMORROW. PATCHY SMOKE  
WAS THEREFORE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS OF 85 TO 95 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND.  
   
LONG TERM
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS  
PRETTY GOOD UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE PATTERN GOES A  
LITTLE AWRY. THE CURRENT MONSOON FLOW WILL TAPER OFF AND THERE IS  
SOME LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER A RENEWED FLOW WILL ENSUE  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY  
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THE NEXT  
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION AND THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH RETREATS  
SLIGHTLY EAST. SOME MOISTURE LOOKS TO SURGE OUT AHEAD OF THE  
TROUGH AND THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN  
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY MONDAY.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE CENTERED  
SOUTHWEST OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION HOWEVER MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT  
ON WHERE THE HIGH WILL CENTER EXACTLY WHICH IN TURN WILL AFFECT  
MOISTURE PROPAGATION NORTHWARD. TO ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY THE  
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT TROUGH IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL. THE  
COMBINATION OF THE HIGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH BRINGS INTO QUESTION  
HOW NORTH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH. HOWEVER THE MONSOON PUSH  
COULD GET ENHANCED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME DRY LIGHTNING IN PARTS  
OF EAST CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE  
90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR MOSTLY KEKO AND  
KELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO STAY JUST  
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KWMC TERMINAL. DRY CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY, STORM-FREE CONDITIONS OVER THE  
WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
90/89/89/90  
 
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