885
FXUS65 KLKN 090804
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1204 AM PST MON NOV 9 2009
SYNOPSIS
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. A MAJOR
STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...
AND MARK THE BEGINNING OF A COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN AS A RAIN EVENT AND...THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE
FREEZING LEVEL PLUMMETS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES BLANKETING THE VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...INFLUENCING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA...ESSENTIALLY THE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM. ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. PWATS IN THE SHORT RANGE WILL VARY FROM
15 TO .30 OF AN INCH. ALL THE WHILE
A DEEP CLOSED LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...
STEERING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN BY MID-WEEK. VALLEY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL COMMENCE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES
FIRST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS MATURE CYCLONE WILL
BE A SIGNIFICANT QPF PRODUCER FOR THE HIGH DESERT REGION.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT HOWEVER THERE IS STILL CONCERN OVER IMPACT OF
NEXT LOW SYSTEM GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF MULTIPLE
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH A DEEPENING TROUGH EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ON LATEST RUN GIVES A TIMING OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. THE CENTRAL AXIS OF THE MEAN TROUGH...PER GFS/ECMWF...SHOULD
BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
A COLD BLAST AND SHOULD DELIVER SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL TO THE
NORTH AS IT DRAGS IN -12C TEMPERATURES AT H7. SNOWFALL MAY BE
LIMITED AROUND THE ELKO AREA DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A LITTLE SLOWER TIMING ON THIS WHICH WOULD
INDICATE THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WOULD MOVE OVER ELKO COUNTY
ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. FRONT IS LIKELY TO HANG A BIT AS THE
JET ENERGY TRIES TO BALANCE AND PULL THE LOW EAST LATE THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL NEVADA COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AS WELL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE FORTHCOMING EARLY THIS WEEK. FOR NOW...A
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS IN EFFECT TO PROVIDE DETAILS ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD FOLLOW LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN.
AVIATION
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH FROM THE S/SW CAN BE EXPECTED AT KWMC DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
97/92/92
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