921  
FXUS65 KLKN 300938  
AFDLKN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
238 AM PDT SUN APR 30 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BRUSH MAINLY NORTHERN ELKO  
COUNTY ON SUNDAY AND THE AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.  
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH  
THURSDAY. A PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD  
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES AND A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
 
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS THE SOUTHERN END OF A COUPLE OF  
WEAK FRONTS TO SKIM NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODEL  
BLENDS IN AGREEMENT THAT NEITHER OF THESE WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN  
SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE FIRST WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE OTHER LOOKS TO BRUSH BY MONDAY  
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE  
PERIOD IN THE UPPER 50'S TO MID 60'S. NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30'S, RISING SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE  
MID 30'S INTO THE LOWER 40'S. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS  
AFTERNOON OF 15 MPH WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL FINALLY MOBILIZE AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE  
GREAT BASIN. DRY AND EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL  
THROUGH THURSDAY, AFTER WHICH A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC DOMAIN AND BEGIN SPREADING SOME MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE  
SILVER STATE. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD EARLY ON BUT BY THE WEEKEND  
SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE THAT WILL AFFECT THE DEGREE TO WHICH  
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD FOR THIS  
TIME-FRAME AND THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A DRY PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL GIVE UP RESIDENCE AND BEGIN TO  
MOVE INLAND. CENTRAL PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND 582DM H5  
HEIGHTS WILL STRETCH INTO IDAHO AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES  
THROUGH THE STATE AND ALIGNS NEAR THE NV/UT BORDER LATE THURSDAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY AND THURSDAY MAY BE THE  
WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE  
THROUGH THE 70S WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 80 DEGREES THURSDAY. LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL  
APPROACH THE WEST COAST. MODEL COMPARISON INDICATES THAT THERE  
ARE RATHER MARKED DIFFERENCES IN THE MOVEMENT OF CENTRAL LOW  
PRESSURE WITHIN THE TROUGH AND THE TROUGH AXIS CONUS PENETRATION  
BY LATE SATURDAY. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW GREAT THE  
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY. A  
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSURE CONTINUED MILD  
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE  
MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH  
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME  
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION  
AT ANY OF THE SITES.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY.
 
RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR STEADY OR  
SLOWLY FALL THIS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.  
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON THE WAY FOR LATER IN THE WEEK  
WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES  
WHICH WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE SNOWMELT AND INCREASE RUNOFF INTO  
AREA STREAMS.  
 
HERE ARE THE LOCATIONS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN  
EFFECT:  
 
HUMBOLDT RIVER - BATTLE MOUNTAIN: MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES.  
 
HUMBOLDT RIVER - COMUS, NEAR WINNEMUCCA: MINOR TO MODERATE  
FLOODING CONTINUES.  
 
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEEK AHEAD MAY CAUSE INCREASED  
SNOWMELT WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASED FLOWS. THE FOLLOWING RIVERS  
ARE RUNNING HIGH, BUT ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE:  
 
WILDHORSE DAM - AT WILDHORSE  
 
OWYHEE RIVER - AT WILDHORSE  
 
OWYHEE RIVER - NEAR MOUNTAIN CITY  
 
BRUNEAU RIVER - NEAR ROWLAND  
 

 
   
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
90/92/92/90  
 
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