452  
FXUS65 KREV 282049  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
149 PM PDT FRI APR 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON THE HORIZON AS HIGH PRESSURE  
FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. OTHER  
THAN A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES BRINGING BRIEF COOLING AND ENHANCED  
BREEZES, THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WEST BY MIDWEEK NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BRUSHED JUST EAST OF THE AREA WILL  
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ONLY SLIGHT  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
NEVADA. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE VERY WEAK AND MAY  
ONLY RESULT IN VIRGA AND NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE. NORTH  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AREAS  
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MONO LAKE TO HAWTHORNE. AS THE LOW  
DIGS FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH  
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN  
SIERRA, ESPECIALLY FOR COMMUNITIES SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT.  
 
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE INCREASING NORTH  
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND RIDGELINES OF THE  
SIERRA. RIDGE WIND GUSTS 50 TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY  
LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST  
ACROSS THE SIERRA RIDGES AND WESTERN NEVADA.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE'S INFLUENCE WILL REALLY BECOME NOTICEABLE ON  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM  
WHILE WINDS DECREASE. BY SUNDAY, WESTERN NEVADA WILL WARM INTO  
THE MID TO HIGH 70S WITH SIERRA LOCATIONS INTO THE MID 60S.  
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NICE CHANGE FOR RECREATIONAL  
PURPOSES DURING THE DAY, BUT WILL BRING ANOTHER SET OF IMPACTS AS  
SNOWMELT AND INCREASED STREAM AND RIVER FLOWS BECOME THE PRIMARY  
CONCERN. EXPECT RIVER FLOWS TO INCREASE REGION-WIDE, BUT  
ESPECIALLY ON THE CARSON AND WALKER RIVER SYSTEMS. STAY AWAY FROM  
ALL FAST-MOVING, COLD STREAMS AND RIVERS AS IT BEGINS TO WARM UP  
THIS WEEKEND. IF HIKING IN THE FOOTHILLS OR MOUNTAIN AREAS, BE  
PREPARED FOR SNOW-COVERED TRAILS AND HIDDEN HAZARDS BENEATH THE  
SNOW, LIKE STREAMS AND CREEKS. KEEP IN MIND, AS SNOWMELT  
INCREASES WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES, STREAMS AND CREEKS  
TYPICALLY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN FLOWS OVERNIGHT. CAMPING NEAR  
A STREAM OR CREEK IS NOT RECOMMENDED UNLESS YOU WANT TO WAKE UP  
IN 30 DEGREE WATER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. -EDAN  
 
   
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
 
 
 
THIS WAS ANOTHER ROUND OF MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST.  
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY  
THAT WILL KEEP FLOW MORE NORTHERLY BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY BY  
WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO SHIFT  
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES RAMPING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE  
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID/UPPER 60S TO  
AROUND 70 FOR SIERRA VALLEYS ON THURSDAY.  
 
MODELS LARGELY DIVERGE LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS MAINTAINS  
A STRONG RIDGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE  
WEEKEND WHILE THE EC BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING A MODERATELY  
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES WERE  
LEFT IN AS A NOD TO THE EC FOR FRIDAY, THE FORECAST WILL LEAN  
TOWARDS THE GFS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE TENDENCY FOR GLOBAL  
MODELS TO MOVE MAJOR FEATURES, LIKE BLOCKING RIDGES, TOO QUICKLY.  
 
EITHER WAY, RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MOST RIVER  
SYSTEMS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON THE WALKER AND CARSON RIVER  
SYSTEMS THAT RESPOND MORE READILY TO SNOWMELT THAN THE TRUCKEE  
RIVER. RIVER FLOWS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE  
OF MONTHS, AND IT IS ADVISED THAT EXTRA CAUTION BE TAKEN IF YOU WILL  
BE NEAR RIVER BANKS. FAST FLOWS ARE NOT THE ONLY THREAT; THE WATER  
IS DECEPTIVELY COLD WITH HYPOTHERMIA SETTING IN QUICKLY. BOYD  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE INTO THIS WEEKEND REMAINING NORTHERLY  
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME BREEZES AROUND 20KTS FOR AREA  
TERMINALS. EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON ALOFT WITH THE  
POTENTIAL FOR TURBULENT CONDITIONS OVER AND WEST OF THE SIERRA.  
WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY  
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY BACKDOOR FRONT INCREASES NORTHERLY FLOW ONCE  
AGAIN.  
 
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEAR FUTURE. BOYD  
 

 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO  
 
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