318  
FXUS65 KREV 261015  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
315 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AS A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEVADA TODAY,  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS ON TAP, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
MUCH LIGHTER WITH A REDUCED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WARMER AND  
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING  
FOR NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO PARTS OF  
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAS LOST MOST OF ITS ENERGY, WITH  
ONLY SOME LINGERING RAIN BANDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MINERAL-  
CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH ANOTHER BAND WRAPPING AROUND NORTHEAST  
CA. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, BOTH RAIN BANDS WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO  
THE EAST WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. BY THIS AFTERNOON, ISOLATED  
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PROBABLE WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT  
BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LOW, BUT WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND  
COOL TEMPERATURES LIMITING INSTABILITY, THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS  
THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT RAIN. THERE  
IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER FOR WEST CENTRAL NV SOUTHWARD  
TO EASTERN MONO COUNTY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT  
COOLER, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING FAR LESS LIGHTNING ACTIVITY COMPARED  
TO THE PAST TWO DAYS.  
 
THE BEST CHANCES FOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY ARE PROJECTED  
FOR AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD  
RECEIVE UP TO 0.25" MAINLY THROUGH THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE,  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN  
0.10".  
 
FOR TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST,  
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. FOR SUNDAY, THE  
BACK EDGE OF A WRAP AROUND SHOWER BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOWLY  
DEPARTING LOW COULD BRUSH ACROSS FAR EASTERN PERSHING AND  
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AND MORE STABLE NORTH TO  
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP BY ABOUT  
10 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY (70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, 60S NEAR  
THE SIERRA). SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE PROBABLE DURING THE  
AFTERNOON WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE NEAR HIGHER  
TERRAIN, BUT STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT  
FORCING WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  
 
ON MONDAY, THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE  
BUILDS INTO CA-NV, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST  
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S NEAR THE SIERRA. NO SHOWER OR  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS  
PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS.  
 
BOTTOM LINE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND: FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES,  
AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE MORE FAVORABLE OUR WEATHER WILL  
BECOME WITH BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY PROVIDING A "REWARD" FOR OUR  
REGION AFTER ENDURING SUCH A LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.  
MJD  
 
   
LONG TERM...TUESDAY ONWARD
 
 
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO  
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AMPLIFYING  
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, OR MID 80S IN WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND MID  
70S IN SIERRA VALLEYS. WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LINGERING  
MOISTURE, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN  
A THUNDERSTORM FORMING OVER THE SIERRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK  
WESTERLY AFTERNOON BREEZES, A STORM MAY DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO  
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS.  
 
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST BY MIDWEEK, BRINGING AN  
INCREASE IN WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND A COOL DOWN TO NEAR  
NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH DIFFERS FROM  
THE LOWS THIS MONTH BECAUSE IT IS AN OPEN WAVE (INSTEAD OF A CUT-  
OFF LOW) AND HAS A JET BEHIND IT, KEEPING THE FLOW MORE  
PROGRESSIVE. THIS MEANS THAT WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL BRING RENEWED  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY  
AFTERNOONS, IT WON'T LINGER LIKE STORMS OF THIS PAST MONTH. FOR  
THOSE TIRED OF THE WET WEATHER, AT THIS POINT, THE FIRST WEEKEND  
OF JUNE LOOKS DRY AND WARM. -DAWN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
SHOWERS WILL LINGER TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, THE TAHOE  
BASIN, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH  
MORE SPOTTY COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS MAY BRING  
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN ADDITION TO TERRAIN  
OBSCURATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE  
CENTRAL NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE EASTWARD, BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TOO  
STABLE ELSEWHERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL  
BE WEAK WITH PEA-SIZED HAIL AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH  
POSSIBLE.  
 
MORNING FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MARTIS VALLEY, INCLUDING  
KTRK, OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY/MEMORIAL DAY. -DAWN  
 

 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO  
 
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