733
FXUS65 KREV 210530 AAB
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
930 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
UPDATE
SYSTEM WINDING DOWN FOR OUR AREA AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SRN NV
AND ERN GREAT BASIN AND DYNAMICS SHIFT WELL OFF TO THE EAST. RDG
WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS NEAR 100 MPH. HOWEVER EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVRNGT. WINDS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS CONT TO DECREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY AND
WARNING LVLS. WL ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM
FOR MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. WL ALSO CLEAN UP ZONE WORDING WITH
ISOLD SHOWERS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SIERRA CREST AND NR THE OR
BORDER. REMAINDER OF FCST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES OUT BY 10 PM.
HOHMANN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 657 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
CANCELING WINTER STORM WARNINGS EARLY AS STEADY HEAVY SNOW HAS
ENDED. STILL EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LOCALIZED AND 2 INCHES AT MOST.
WILL ALSO CANCEL DUST STORM WARNING EARLY AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
RAPIDLY NEAR FALLON AND LOVELOCK AND THERE ARE NO FURTHER REPORTS
OF BLOWING DUST. WILL LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR MONO/MINERAL
AND LET THEM RUN THEIR COURSE AS GUSTS ARE STILL AROUND 60 MPH IN
A FEW LOCATIONS THERE. UPDATES OUT BY 715 PM. WALLMANN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH AND IS ROUGHLY ALONG
A DENIO TO MARKLEEVILLE LINE. NEAR AND BEHIND FRONT IS WHERE
PRECIP BAND IS WITH MODERATE TO HVY SNOW IN SIERRA WITH IT A
LITTLE LIGHTER IN LEE SIDE DESERTS. WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH DUST STORM OVER BASIN AND RANGE. BLOWING DUST PLUMES
SHOW UP WELL ON RADAR IMAGERY.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ALTHOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...WARNINGS
LOOK GOOD. WIND STATEMENTS ALSO LOOK GOOD TO EXPIRE FOR RENO/TAHOE
AREA AT 4 PM...WITH WARNINGS CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST THRU 10 PM.
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 60-70 MPH AT TIMES AHEAD
OF FRONT.
AS FRONT CLEARS AREA BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP
AND WIND WITH FLAT RIDGE FOR SAT. WEAK SYSTEM TO BRUSH BY THE AREA
SUN MORNING WITH RAIN/SNOW NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH ROUGHLY. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION HOWEVER...AND WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT...BUT NOTHING LIKE TODAY.
AFTER SYSTEM PASSES SUN...RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH N-NW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS WILL WARM IN MTNS BETTER THAN VALLEYS WHICH WILL SEE SOME
MODERATE INVERSIONS. WALLMANN
LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEING DEEPER AND FASTER. LEANING
MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH
OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS...THE TAIL END OF THE RIDGE KEEPS MOST
MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF PRECIP NORTH OF THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCES MENTIONED
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO OVERALL MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
LABELLE
AVIATION...
STRONG AND FAST MOVING STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION. VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS CREATING WIDESPREAD
TURBULENCE AND BLOWING DUST...BUT THE EMPHASIS IS QUICKLY SHIFTING
TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WRN NEVADA LOCATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FROM KWMC TO KRNO THEN EXTENDING SOUTH TO KMMH. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCLUDING KLOL AND KNFL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTS 40-50 KTS AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH 02Z. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT
INCLUDING KRNO AND THE REST OF THE SIERRA FRONT WILL SEE QUICKLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SNOW MOVES IN...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
DECREASE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD ONLY LAST 1-2 HOURS AND BEST GUESS ON TIMING IS TO OCCUR
FROM NOW UNTIL 03Z.
FOR SIERRA LOCATIONS INCLUDING KTRK AND KTVL...SNOW QUICKLY BROUGHT
CONDITIONS DOWN TO VLIFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 04Z. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z HOWEVER SHSN AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. IF KTRK
CLEARS UP FAST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z. JORDAN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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