014  
FXUS65 KREV 290935  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
235 AM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH  
THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OTHERWISE, A SIGNIFICANT  
WARMING TREND IS ON TAP THIS WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING  
80 DEGREES IN THE SIERRA AND LOWER 90S ACROSS SOME WESTERN NEVADA  
VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
WEAK UPPER LOW WAS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CA THIS  
MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA MONDAY. THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GOING TO BE THIS AFTERNOON  
AS DEFORMATION ACROSS MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES COMBINES WITH INCOMING  
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY AS INITIAL  
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE LIMITED. HOWEVER, BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW  
THICK CLOUD SHIELD DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTION AND THIS  
MAY ONCE AGAIN LIMIT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STRONGEST STORMS TO THE  
AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH A DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,  
BEST PHASING OF DYNAMICS AND DEFORMATION APPEARS TO BE OVER  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV EARLY THIS EVENING. SO SCATTERED COVERAGE  
FOR MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES AND ALONG THE PINE NUT MOUNTAINS WILL  
SUFFICE WITH ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TO ROUND OUT THE  
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF LAKE  
TAHOE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND CAPPED AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS  
SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS  
IN THE 70S SIERRA VALLEYS AND WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS LOWER  
ELEVATIONS BY TUESDAY. HOHMANN  
   
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
 
 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE  
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR  
EARLY JUNE. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR UNSTABLE  
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED ON WEDNESDAY WITH  
ONLY A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THE SIERRA. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, WE  
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OVERCOME THE WEAK  
CAPPING AND GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA OF  
MONO-ALPINE COUNTIES AND INTO THE PINE NUT MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN  
NV.  
 
BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RISING  
REGARDING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST  
MOVING INLAND AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO THE  
SIERRA. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH TYPICAL GREAT BASIN HIGH  
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THAT INCREASES THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR OUR  
AREA. THAT BEING SAID, WE ARE STILL ABOUT 6-7 DAYS OUT AND THERE  
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE LOW INTO  
SOCAL, THUS WE HAVE INTRODUCED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HOON  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH  
OF A KTVL-KNFL LINE. ACROSS THE SIERRA, KMMH WILL SEE THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR TS WITH ABOUT A 30% LIKELIHOOD THIS AFTERNOON.  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, BRIEF HEAVY  
RAINFALL, AND OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 MPH. FUENTES/HOON  
 

 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO  
 
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