832  
FXUS65 KREV 262148  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
248 PM PDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE NEXT SPRING STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN  
NEVADA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE FOR THE  
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN THE SIERRA. BREEZY WINDS MAY CREATE  
CHOPPY LAKE CONDITIONS TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM  
ON THURSDAY MAY BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND  
WESTERN NEVADA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
A MODERATE SPRING STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION  
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW  
TO THE SIERRA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVED IN EARLIER THIS  
MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION FLURRIES. THIS HAS  
PUSHED EAST OF RENO ALREADY AND WE WILL BE IN A SHORT LULL UNTIL  
THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING.  
 
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN AFTER 8PM, BRINGING A PERIOD  
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING  
FOR THE SIERRA. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING OVER THE SIERRA THIS  
EVENING, IT'S BEST THAT YOU PLAN ON LEAVING EARLIER THAN LATER,  
BECAUSE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AFTER 8 PM WITH SLOW  
DOWNS, SLICK SNOWY ROADS AND POTENTIAL CHAIN CONTROLS. THIS ISN'T  
A BIG STORM BY SIERRA STANDARDS, BUT WITH SEVERAL INCHES LIKELY  
(AND UP TO 5-7 INCHES AT PASS LEVEL) THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO  
CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES. SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY  
CONTINUE AROUND THE SIERRA AND LAKE TAHOE BASIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY  
MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND THE SUN BEGINS TO MELT  
OFF THE ROADS.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING DOWN SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN  
NORTHEAST CA TONIGHT, WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET  
AROUND RENO-TAHOE. MOST LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA SHOULD BE  
SPARED OF SNOW IMPACTS, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE UPPER FOOTHILLS  
AROUND RENO-CARSON ABOVE 5000 FEET, AS WELL AS VIRGINIA CITY,  
COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY WET SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.  
OTHERWISE, WE JUST EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY WET ROADS FOR THE VALLEY  
FLOORS IN WESTERN NV.  
 
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE EXPECT TO SEE NORTHWEST TO NORTH  
WINDS ON MONDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE  
FOR BRISK CONDITIONS. PYRAMID LAKE IS LINED UP PERFECTLY FOR THE  
NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY, SO WE'VE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY  
FOR CHOPPY CONDITIONS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS WELL. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES  
OUT OF THE AREA, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING AND DRYING  
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN  
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOON  
   
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
 
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST, WITH  
THURSDAY STILL LIKELY TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE  
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SOURCES CONTINUE TO  
INDICATE VARYING SCENARIOS FOR THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW PASSING  
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY, RANGING FROM A PASSAGE OVER  
WESTERN NV (COOLEST AND WETTEST) TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF NV  
(DRIER AND NOT AS COOL). TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS RANGE OF TRACK  
SCENARIOS, THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FAVORS WEST CENTRAL  
NV, BUT ANY PORTION OF THE SIERRA OR WESTERN NV COULD RECEIVE  
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN ABOVE 7000 FEET BUT FALL  
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, DROPPING TO AROUND  
5500-6600 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ENHANCING THE CHILLY  
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SOME  
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PERSHING,  
CHURCHILL AND MINERAL COUNTIES.  
 
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE  
WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN AND RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL PRECIP  
AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE VERY HEAVY, BUT THE CONVECTIVE NATURE  
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN OR SNOW,  
WITH SHORT PERIODS OF WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR THE  
SIERRA MAINLY ABOVE 6500 FEET.  
 
THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL NV.  
CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE  
DEPARTING LOW WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY  
BELOW AVERAGE. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST RIDGE LEVEL WINDS COULD  
DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING, DEPENDING  
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE GREAT BASIN.  
 
OTHERWISE FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE  
GUIDANCE SOURCES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND OVER CA-  
NV, LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS AND A DECENT WARM-UP. HIGHS ARE LIKELY  
TO REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY THEN AROUND  
70 DEGREES SUNDAY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES  
NEAR THE SIERRA. MJD  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO  
TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT AND SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS UP  
TO 65 KT. AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVE INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND  
THE TAHOE BASIN BY THIS EVENING WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS. FOR KTRK  
AND KTVL THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR STEADY SNOW WITH IFR  
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN BETWEEN 04-09Z, WITH A FEW SLUSHY INCHES OF  
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. KMMH SHOULD BE SPARED FROM SIGNIFICANT  
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE SNOW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS  
MONDAY, WHILE THE MAIN PRECIP BAND ALSO WEAKENS. IN THE LOWER  
VALLEYS EAST OF THE SIERRA WE WILL SEE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT,  
BUT A LITTLE SNOW COULD MIX IN MONDAY MORNING NEAR AND ABOVE 5000  
FEET. LIGHTER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN TOP  
OBSCURATIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IS  
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT, EXCEPT A  
FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF  
MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES.  
 
A DRY PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,  
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY THAT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS  
THE REGION. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH  
THIS SYSTEM, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL  
NV. MJD  
 

 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PYRAMID  
LAKE IN NVZ004.  
 
CA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO  
 
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