053  
FXUS65 KREV 172225  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
325 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO WELL  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MONO AND  
MINERAL COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON  
THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AS  
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE HERE TO STAY AT LEAST FOR THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL HOVER AROUND  
100-106 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA, WITH 90S AND  
UPPER 80S IN THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CA, THEN TEMPERATURES EDGE  
DOWN 2-4 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT  
FEW NIGHTS WILL BE WARMER THAN USUAL WITH LOWS BETWEEN 65-75 IN  
THE DESERT VALLEYS, SO OUR TYPICAL NIGHTLY COOL DOWNS WILL NOT BE  
AS COOL. ANYONE WORKING OR RECREATING OUTDOORS SHOULD CARRY EXTRA  
WATER AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS. SENSITIVE  
POPULATIONS MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THIS HEAT WAVE, I.E. CHECK ON  
YOUR GRANDMOTHER!  
 
SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE FERGUSON FIRE NEAR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK  
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  
AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER MONO COUNTY, ALTHOUGH  
MOST AREAS WILL SEE MORE OF A LIGHT SMOKE/HAZE. AIR QUALITY COULD  
BE DEGRADED AT TIMES, SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK IN THE AIRNOW.GOV FOR  
THE LATEST AIR QUALITY FOR YOUR DISTRICT.  
 
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH WE ARE LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT  
THE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.  
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN EAST-WEST ORIENTED, SUPPRESSING ANY  
CONVECTION NORTH OF US-50 TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD  
START TO SEE MORE THUNDERSTORMS CREEPING NORTHWARD THROUGH MONO-  
MINERAL ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
BY THURSDAY, WE WILL SEE A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVE AROUND THE  
RIDGE AND DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST.  
THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN  
NEVADA, BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HELP GET SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING  
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH TO I-80 INCLUDING INTO RENO-TAHOE.  
THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO HELP TO GET  
THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY STRONG ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED  
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.  
 
THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE EVENING  
AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST GFS AND NAM  
MODELS RUNS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS FEATURE KICKING OFF SOME  
WEAK CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER  
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THIS WAVE  
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CA, HELPING TO PRODUCE MORE  
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CA, AND ACROSS  
MUCH OF WESTERN NV. HOON  
   
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
 
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING  
OVER WESTERN NV-EASTERN CA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCES COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN  
WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODS NEAR BURN SCARS, STEEP TERRAIN AND  
URBAN AREAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE  
AND STRENGTH AS PW VALUES APPROACH 1". THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS  
FAVORS AREAS SOUTH OF US-50, WITH DECREASING COVERAGE NORTHWARD  
TOWARD THE OREGON BORDER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EDGE DOWN A FEW DEGREES  
TO THE MID-UPPER 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 80S NEAR THE  
SIERRA AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THIS  
WILL ALSO KEEP THE NIGHTS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE  
60S TO NEAR 70 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.  
 
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TRENDING  
TEMPERATURES UPWARD AGAIN, ALTHOUGH HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE NOT  
PROJECTED TO BE AS WARM AS THIS WEEK. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS THE  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE SEVERAL DATA SOURCES FAVOR ANOTHER EAST-  
WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS REFORMING SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND  
SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION, SOME SCENARIOS TILT THE RIDGE AXIS  
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM EAST OF THE SIERRA  
AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NV. THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH KEEPS  
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER SOUTH OF US-50 MONDAY-TUESDAY LOOKS  
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. MJD  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH AREAS  
OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE FERGUSON FIRE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE  
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA. LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING WIND GUSTS AROUND  
20 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE US-395 CORRIDOR THROUGH THURSDAY WITH  
LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SLIM THROUGH  
THE REST OF TODAY, THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD TO NEAR US-50 BY WEDNESDAY  
AND NEAR I-80 BY THURSDAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND  
NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR  
HEAVY RAINFALL, REDUCED VISIBILITY, MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND GUSTY  
OUTFLOW WINDS. MJD  
 

 
 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ003-004.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ005.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY NVZ001.  
 
CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY CAZ070.  
 

 
 

 
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NV Page
The Nexlab CA Page Main Text Page