814  
FXUS65 KREV 260912  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
212 AM PDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
BREEZY WINDS RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT  
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK. HOT AND DRY  
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, LOOKING  
FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH WARMER  
LOCATIONS SUCH AS LOVELOCK AND FALLON APPROACHING 100. TEMPERATURES  
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH  
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPECTED FOR THE RENO AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
SIERRA VALLEYS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  
 
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE  
THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING FOR WIND GUSTS  
OF AROUND 20-25 MPH TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED  
AREAS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS  
ACROSS AREA LAKES. KAYAKERS AND PADDLEBOARDERS SHOULD EXERCISE  
CAUTION WHEN OUT ON THE WATER.  
 
OTHERWISE VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH  
POOR MID-SLOPE RECOVERIES PERSISTING. WE WILL SEE SOME MOISTURE  
BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY BY  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES MAY  
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM BUT  
BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID-WEEK. FUENTES  
 
   
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY ONWARD)
 
 
NO BIG SHIFTS IN FORECAST THINKING WITH OUR MESSAGING FOCUS BEING  
CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE  
MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 50 THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
GUIDANCE SHOWING STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MID WEEK  
BREAKING DOWN SOME LATE WEEK WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST.  
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, GEFS 700MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE IN  
THE 97+ PERCENTILE OVER THE REGION POINTING TOWARD CONTINUED HOT  
TEMPERATURES WITH W NEV VALLEYS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100. THIS IS NEAR  
RECORDS BUT PROBABLY NOT BREAKING THEM. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD  
HEAT HEALTH IMPACTS SINCE NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF SOME BUT  
SENSITIVE GROUPS AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS COMING WEEK  
SHOULD TAKE COMMON SENSE PRECAUTIONS.  
 
AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY MID TO LATE  
WEEK, MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.5-0.75" WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THIS IS AN  
IDEAL SCENARIO FOR DRY, HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND  
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. THE INGREDIENTS BEST LINE UP OVER THE CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN SIERRA AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN. IF TROUGHING OVER N  
CAL ENDS UP BEING MORE PRONOUNCED THEN WE COULD SEE GREATER COVERAGE  
OF STORMS WITH INCREASED RISK OF NEW WILDFIRE STARTS.  
 
RIGHT NOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST  
COVERAGE OF STORMS PER GFS, AND HERE WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME WET  
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL WINDS AND STORM  
MOTIONS. ALSO WEDNESDAY IS WHERE STORMS MAY CREEP FURTHER NORTH  
POSSIBLY INTO TAHOE/RENO AREAS DEPENDING ON ZEPHYR CONVERGENCE ZONE  
PLACEMENT. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WE CAN'T RULE OUT  
MOUNTAIN STORMS BUT PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE  
IN OUTLOOKS. -CHRIS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
PRETTY TYPICAL LATE JUNE WEATHER FOR THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH  
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING ZEPHYR WESTERLY WINDS.  
THESE WINDS LOOK WEAK-MODERATE IN THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE FOR RNO,  
MMH, CXP WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS BETWEEN 22Z-04Z EACH  
DAY. WE COULD SEE SOME BUILDUPS OVER THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TVL AND  
NEAR MMH STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ALOFT WORKS INTO THE  
REGION. NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY, BUT TUESDAY WE COULD SEE  
ISOLATED CELLS AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR MMH.  
 
DEPENDING ON FIRE ACTIVITY, LATEST PLUME SIMULATIONS SHOW AREAS OF  
SMOKE AND LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING  
BETWEEN BRIDGEPORT AND MONO LAKE. THIS COULD CREATE TERRAIN  
OBSCURATION. WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG SO THIS WILL LIMIT SMOKE  
TRANSPORT DOWNWIND INTO NEVADA. -CHRIS  
 

 
 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO  
 
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