372
FXUS65 KREV 042143
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
252 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2008
SHORT TERM
SHORT WAVE OVER NRN CA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NV THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AN INCREASED THERMAL GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS ARE GENERALLY 25-30 MPH
WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS OVER LAKE
TAHOE ARE GUSTING 20-25 MPH WITH ONLY LOCAL GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH.
THESE WINDS ARE LESS THAN LAKE WIND ADVISORY...AND BASED ON WEB
CAMERAS AROUND LAKE TAHOE GENERAL 1-2 FOOT WAVES ARE OCCURRING AND
2-3 FOOT WAVE ON THE NORTH SHORE. THEREFORE WILL REFRAIN FROM
ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE WINDS SUBSIDE. WINDS WILL DECREASE
IN THE TAHOE BASIN AROUND 7-8 PM...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT DECREASE IN
WRN NV...INCLUDING THE RENO/SPARKS AREA UNTIL 10-11 PM TONIGHT.
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEST THAN NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SMOKE WILL LIKELY SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH INTO SRN ZONES ON SATURDAY.
AREA WEB CAMERAS SHOWED EVEN SMOKEY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING NEAR
MONO LAKE AND LEE VINING. THEREFORE SMOKE AND HAZE WAS ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER SUNDAY AND MORE SO ON
MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS
MAY HELP WITH THE SMOKE EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST AS WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND WILL NOT TRANSPORT AS MUCH SMOKE TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER HAZE MAY STILL GET TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS.
MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING. THE GFS HAS THE WAVE
COMING ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE NAM/EURO HOLD
THIS WAVE OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS PRODUCES AN AREA OF
INSTABILITY IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90KT JET OVER NRN ZONES
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED IN THE
OTHER MODELS YET...SO FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S OVER WRN NV ON MONDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE
SIERRA. SEE CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. GMCGUIRE
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN ISSUE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE PROBABLE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS IS COVERED MORE EXTENSIVELY
IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
ON TUESDAY THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW
THE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN TIER. FROM GEORGIA WEST TO SRN
CALIFORNIA 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE ABOVE 588 DAM AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
IMPRESSIVE 500 MB HEIGHTS REFLECTING THE EXTREMELY WARM AIR MASS
OVER THE SWRN CONUS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE KREV
CWFA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOONS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE AREA OF THE GREATEST
LLVL INSTABILITY.
THE MODELS BRING AN UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS KEEP THE UPPER LOW TO
OUR NORTH IN THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS.
WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT OVER MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES MAINLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE STRONG
LLVL INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. O'HARA
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. SMOKE
SHOULD FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN.
HOWEVER VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. O'HARA
CLIMATE
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLE AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WRN NEVADA AND
EVEN INTO THE SIERRA. RECORD WARM MINIMUM NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT RENO.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE IN THE UPR 90S
TO LWR 100S AT LOCATIONS IN WRN NEVADA. RECORD HIGHS AT SIERRA
LOCATIONS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 90S. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 10TH
AND 11TH (THURS AND FRI) ARE FROM THE HISTORIC HEAT WAVE IN 2002.
THESE RECORDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DO NOT SEEM TO BE IN JEOPARDY
ATTM. A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED LISTING THE
RECORD HIGHS THAT MAY BE BROKEN NEXT WEEK. O'HARA
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
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