650  
FXUS65 KREV 031052  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
252 AM PST SAT DEC 3 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
RIDGING OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT  
WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON SUNDAY  
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE  
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN SETS UP BY THE  
END OF THE WEEK.  

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALREADY BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING,  
WHICH WILL TRAP COLDER AIR IN THE VALLEYS AND RESULT IN LIMITED  
MIXING TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH LOWER  
VALLEYS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THE 20S AND 30S FOR THE SIERRA.  
RIDGE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN  
THE SIERRA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MONO COUNTY.  
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL  
ALLOW THE WINDS TO DROP OFF.  
 
SURFACE INVERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST  
FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. MIXING WILL  
ALLOW THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH  
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID 50S, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF  
YEAR. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN WITH  
THIS INITIAL SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE BEST  
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN OVER CENTRAL-  
EASTERN NEVADA, BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS  
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND  
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.  
 
MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND COLD, BUT WE MAY SEE A SHORT BREAK IN  
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN JUST BEHIND  
THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTH  
INTO WESTERN NEVADA AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. -EDAN  
   
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
 
 
THE COLD INSIDE SLIDER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY  
TUESDAY WITH THE EC CONTINUING TO BE THE FURTHEST WEST. THE GFS IS A  
LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT IS STILL FURTHER EAST  
THAN THE EC ENSEMBLE. TRENDED THE FORECAST A LITTLE MORE TO THE EC  
AND ITS ENSEMBLE AND INCREASED THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH  
OF HIGHWAY 50 SOME. DEPENDING ON TIMING, THERE COULD BE ISSUES  
DURING RUSH HOUR TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP, ALL MODELS AGREE ON VERY COLD AIR  
ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER  
20S AND 30S FOR HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD NIGHT  
IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS IN SIERRA  
VALLEYS DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER.  
 
THEN, THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY. IT LOOKS TO HAVE A WEAK TO MODERATE AR WITH IT, ALTHOUGH THE  
MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THE SYSTEM OVERALL TO BE ORGANIZED. CLOUDS  
WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN AND  
SNOW ARRIVE THAT EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS STORM NOT  
BEING ORGANIZED, HOW IT PLAYS OUT IS LOW CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY  
WITH SNOW LEVELS.  
 
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING AS THE PRECIP SHIELD  
MOVES IN WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SNOW LEVELS AT THE VALLEY FLOORS. OF  
COURSE, IF THE WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN (AND THEY AREN'T THAT STRONG SO  
IT MAY NOT OCCUR) THE SNOW LEVELS COULD START AS HIGH AS 7000 FEET.  
FOR NOW, HAVE PUT IN A VERY THICK MIXED LAYER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE  
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE. I ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS  
THIS MORNING AS THEY DO NOT LOOK THAT STRONG ALOFT (ONLY TO 40-45  
KTS), AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR DAMMING COULD KEEP THEM LIMITED  
TO THE RIDGES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME WEST  
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS SUNDAY IN THE VALLEYS AND UP TO 50 KTS ON  
THE RIDGES WITH SOME MTN WAVE TURBULENCE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD  
FRONT. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT LLWS. SOME SNOW  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO  
 
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