036
FXUS65 KREV 042203 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2009
CORRECTED FIRE WX
SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WE ARE SEEING A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS RETURNED BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER AIR TO THE REGION FOR A BEAUTIFUL INDEPENDENCE DAY. TYPICAL
AFTERNOON WASHOE ZEPHYR WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...DYING OFF TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FIREWORKS TIME.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING THE
AREA CLEAR AND INCREASINGLY DRY. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO CA/OR
TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT
THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS BETWEEN CA AND THE GREAT BASIN...MAKING FOR SOME BREEZY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS SUN-TUES. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTN WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY
ISSUE TAHOE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY EXPECTING CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ONLY TO LAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ON TUES...AS THE JET STREAM MOVES
OVERHEAD...SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...AND ENHANCED PRES/TEMP GRADIENTS
COME TOGETHER FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH. THIS COULD POSSIBLY
CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN WESTERN NV...SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THE BEST THING ABOUT GETTING THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND IS THAT TEMPS
ALOFT WILL COOL OFF A BIT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMALS
FOR EARLY JULY. HOON
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT (AND BREEZY SURFACE CONDITIONS) BETWEEN A SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND
A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE FLOW WEAKENS AS THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE EXPANDS WEST AND
BEATS BACK THE NORTHWEST TROUGH. THIS MEANS A SLOW WARM UP TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. PRECIP-WISE...THERE WILL BE NO CHANCE WITH PERSISTENT...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SNYDER
AVIATION...
VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WIND-WISE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A TROUGH REMAINS ALONG AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUING FIRE WX WATCH FOR TUE ZONES 450/459. TROUGH OFF THE COAST
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND IN WAVES DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. AS
SUCH...EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. STATE OF FUELS MITIGATING THINGS IN SOME
AREAS BASED ON CALLS TO GACCS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS AND
LOW RH EXPECTED EVERY DAY THROUGH WED...DRYING OF FUELS SHOULD BE
ACCELERATED. IN ADDITION...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR TO POOR
MOST AREAS. A DYNAMIC SITUATION TO BE SURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OVERALL...BASED ON CALLS...LOWER ELEVATION FUELS FOR ZONES
450/459 CLOSEST WITH OTHERS A BIT FURTHER BEHIND.
CRITICAL WX CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MET SUN NORTH OF HWY 50 IN THE
DESERT AREAS...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL. GRADIENT ALOFT
STRENGTHENS SOME...BUT SFC THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE
WHICH IS NORMALLY GOOD FOR LOW-END CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35
MPH. RH WILL ALSO BE LOW FROM 5-15 PCT FROM SE TO NORTHWEST. NOT
ISSUING ANYTHING FOR LOW END EVENT DUE TO FUELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
GACCS.
MONDAY...WINDS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO OREGON AROUND SUNRISE. THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT SFC
CONTINUE TO INCREASE A BIT...BUT ALOFT PK AT 5 AM. EXPECT 30-35 MPH
GUSTS AGAIN BUT NOW ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH RH 5-15 PCT. AGAIN NO
ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH FUELS SHOULD DRY A BIT MORE...
TUESDAY...JET ALOFT...NEXT SHORT WAVE TO ENTER AREA LATE AFTERNOON
AND ANOTHER AND LIKELY THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING. 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS WITH JET
STREAK OVERHEAD AND 500 MB WINDS TO 50 KTS. 12 MB SFC PRES GRADIENT
FROM KSAC-KP68 EXPECTED SO EXPECTED STRONGEST WINDS THIS DAY AND
FOCUSED ALONG HWY 395 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF DOYLE AND INTO MINERAL
COUNTY. EXPECT GUSTS 35-40 MPH IN THESE AREAS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH ELSEWHERE. RH AGAIN LOW...BUT MAINLY I-80 SOUTH WITH 5-10 PCT
MINIMUMS BUT NEAR 20 PCT ALONG OREGON BORDER. WITH FUELS DRIEST IN
450/459 AND STRONGEST WINDS THERE TOO...HAVE HOISTED A WATCH. WIND
PRONE AREAS...ESP ZONE 450 COULD SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
WALLMANN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NVZ450-459.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ072.
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
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