548
FXUS65 KVEF 091102
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
302 AM PST MON NOV 9 2009
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS.
SHORT TERM
SATELLITE SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE AT 130 AM
AS OUR CWFA WAS BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE NEXT SLUG WAS
ALREADY ENTERING CALIFORNIA AND HEADING EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOWED
LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS RIDGING
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AND A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH
AS THE NEVADA TEST SITE. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DOWNSLOPE EVENT
IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA. LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE AVAILABLE TOMORROW MORNING...AND WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK THEN. OTHERWISE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXPECT PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING BY AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. AS
THE SHORT TERM ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE INCOMING STORM MAY REACH
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR CWFA...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
SIERRA ZONE LOOKS GOOD.
LONG TERM
THE EXTENDED STARTS THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING
THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE STILL BEING PROGGED WITH IT BUT MOSTLY MID
LEVEL AND MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES.
TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
STILL NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND HENCE THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE BREEZY RANGE. STILL...THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE DROP FROM
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY OF 9-13 DEGREES WILL BE NOTICEABLE.
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES...THE
SIERRA...MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS. I DID
RAISE THE POPS A BIT OVER THE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH
SINCE THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE GREATER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE STABLE CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST BEHIND THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TROUGH.
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
WINDS UNDER 7 KNOTS WILL FOLLOW DIURNAL
PATTERNS THROUGH MONDAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 8 KNOTS WILL FOLLOW DIURNAL PATTERNS
THROUGH MONDAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
MORGAN/JACQUES
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
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