717
FXUS65 KVEF 061026
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
326 AM PDT SUN JUL 6 2008
SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TODAY
BRINGING
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT MONSOON MOISTURE PUSH OF THE
SEASON LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE. NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH IS CLEARLY EVIDENT...WITH CLOUDS SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN
BORDER AS THE TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAD ALREADY OVERSPREAD OUR ENTIRE AREA
AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL IN
PLACE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA PER SURFACE PLOTS AND 24 HOUR CHANGE
CHART. WITH THAT IN MIND...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS STILL
WARRANTED OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DRY
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD. THIS RIDGING WILL ALSO BRING
INCREASING TEMPERATURES...WITH A RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT CONDITIONS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY
RIDGE STILL OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WEDNESDAY TO CONTINUE HOT TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STAY CLOSE TO
HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THURSDAY WILL BE A TAD 'COOLER' AS RIDGE
HEIGHTS LOWER IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING AND THEN
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A CHANGE TO MORE MOISTURE
BEING DRAWN INTO THE SOUTH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF BRING IN IMPRESSIVE
LIFTED INDEXES APPROACH -4/5 IN MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE OVER
CLARK COUNTY FRIDAY ONWARDS AND UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTH PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. QPF IS ALSO LOOKING IMPRESSIVE. HAVE INCREASED
THE POPS IN MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF
THE OUTLOOK STAYS THE SAME SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD BE FOR HIGHER
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 8KTS THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY..BECOMING 10-20KTS AFTER 18Z THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. SKIES TO
BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT POSSIBLE SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT AND VERY FLAT
CUMULUS CLOUDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...IN THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY AREAS SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. DIURNAL WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
INCREASING TO 10-20KTS AFTER 18Z THROUGH 03Z MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 15 LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES AS SHOWN BY THE MODELS...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WOULD ALSO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...SO STAY TUNED.
VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
MORGAN/JACQUES
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
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