200  
FXUS65 KVEF 281029  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
330 AM PDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT  
BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON  
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND SOME  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA HAS LEFT A DRY NORTHWEST  
FLOW OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS STILL OCCURRING OVER  
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS STILL GUSTING OVER 40 MPH.  
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE NOT EXPECTED WILL LEAVE  
THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 11 AM AS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME  
MINOR ISSUES FROM THE WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DOWN THE  
RIVER AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING  
AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THE WINDS DOWN THE RIVER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY  
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE  
AREA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST DOWN THE RIVER, BUT WILL  
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
BY THURSDAY MORNING, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE GIVING WAY TO A  
COMPACT BUT POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO  
BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.  
INTERMODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT  
OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE GFS (AND GFS-DERIVED) MODELS  
INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF ANY GUIDANCE - UPWARDS OF 60KTS AT  
850MB ACCORDING TO THE LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A VERTICALLY  
ALIGNED WIND FIELD. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE  
DIFFERING, BUT SOMEWHAT WEAKER SOLUTIONS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS  
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, BUT BELOW  
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN WARNING LEVEL WINDS. IN ANY CASE, WINDS ARE  
LIKELY TO BE STRONGER THAN THOSE SEEN MONDAY AND WITH THE POTENTIAL  
FOR A HIGH-IMPACT SYSTEM THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND  
WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. THE WATCH CURRENTLY  
EXTENDS THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE STRONG  
NORTH WINDS COULD LINGER AS THE LOW CENTER SLOWS AND WRAPS UP AS IT  
APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE  
REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY IT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME WEAK SHOWER  
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE US-95 CORRIDOR, SIMILAR TO MONDAY.  
 
AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY, NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE  
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY POTENTIALLY CONTINUING THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS  
BOATING CONDITIONS.  
 
BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MODEL AGREEMENT REALLY FALLS OFF.  
THERE'S LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST A SHORT (12-24HR) REPRIEVE FROM THE  
WIND BEFORE ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY.  

 
   
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
 
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THERE  
COULD BE SOME HIGH GUSTS THIS MORNING, BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY  
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE  
AREA TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 20-30 KTS. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED  
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER WHERE GUSTS COULD APPROACH 35-40 KTS. WINDS  
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN  
MOSTLY CLEAR.  

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW  
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
 
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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