946  
FXUS65 KVEF 290906  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
206 AM PDT FRI MAR 29 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF  
THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY IN MOHAVE COUNTY AHEAD OF  
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE SYSTEM  
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY AND  
SATURDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF INYO AND  
CLARK COUNTIES, FOLLOWED BY SHOWERY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
EXPECT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MIDNIGHT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED  
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN AN ARC FROM NORTHERN INYO COUNTY  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH  
EASTERN LINCOLN AND CLARK COUNTIES INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. SKIES WERE  
CLEAR IN THE REST OF THE CWA, ALTHOUGH CIRRUS WAS RACING IN FROM THE  
WEST. SURFACE OBS SHOWED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN 24  
HOURS AGO IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT FOR MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE GUSTY WINDS  
WERE KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. SPEAKING OF WINDS, GUSTY  
WINDS WERE SCATTERED AROUND OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR  
MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH NEITHER AS STRONG NOR AS WIDESPREAD AS 24 HOURS  
AGO. A BUSY COUPLE OF DAYS ARE IN STORE AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM  
SPINNING NEAR 40N 131W MAKES THE TURN EASTWARD TODAY AND DRIVES A  
PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. PRECIP CHANCES COULD  
REACH THE SIERRA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY TODAY, AND THE MAIN ACTION FOR  
MOST OF OUR CWA WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME TRACKS WEST  
TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN, MAINLY BEFORE  
THE MOISTURE PLUME REACHES ANY GIVEN AREA, AT WHICH TIME  
PRECIPITATION DRAG WILL ACT TO DAMPEN THE WINDS. THE WIND ADVISORIES  
WHICH WERE ALREADY IN PLACE WERE NOT CHANGED, BUT MORE WERE ADDED.  
FOR THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING THE LAKES, HOISTED A LAKE  
WIND ADVISORY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST, BUT ENOUGH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND  
OTHER GUIDANCE POINT TOWARD TWO PERIODS OF WINDS VERY NEAR 25 MPH  
SUSTAINED - ONE THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER SATURDAY MORNING AND  
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE RAIN BEGINS. ALSO ADDED A WIND ADVISORY  
FOR THE REST OF MOHAVE COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON, IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE PLUME. THE RAIN IN THE  
LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE MORE BENEFICIAL THAN HAZARDOUS, WHERE ANY  
PERIODS OF HIGHER RAIN RATES SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE PLUME  
MARCHES EASTWARD. HOWEVER, SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD BE A  
DIFFERENT STORY. UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SPRING  
MOUNTAINS TO A WARNING, AS QPF AND FORECAST SNOW RATIOS STILL POINT  
TO ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW. ALSO MOVED THE TIMING SEVERAL HOURS  
EARLIER, SINCE THE PLUME CONTINUES TO SPEED UP, AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS  
SHIFT. ALSO HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES  
OF THE SIERRA AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY, WHERE SNOW  
AMOUNT FORECASTS KEEP CREEPING UP. ALSO CONSIDERED ESMERALDA COUNTY  
FOR AN ADVISORY AS SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD IMPACT HIGHWAY MOUNTAIN  
PASSES THERE, BUT DECIDED AGAINST IT AS AMOUNTS ARE STILL JUST BELOW  
CRITERIA. DAY SHIFT WILL WANT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS AND SEE  
IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE. ALL HAZARDS ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE BY  
SUNSET SATURDAY. SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE COLD  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOULD  
BE NEITHER HEAVY ENOUGH NOR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY EXTENDING  
THE ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM  
YESTERDAY, CRASH FIVE TO 15 DEGREES AREAWIDE SATURDAY IN WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION, THEN STRUGGLE TO RISE SUNDAY UNDER THE COLD TROUGH.  
   
LONG TERM
 
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.  
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON  
MONDAY, CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES  
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-15  
CORRIDOR WILL SEE A 20% TO 50% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BEGIN TO PUSH IN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH  
EXITS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE  
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK TO A  
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
UNFORTUNATELY THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS YET ANOTHER LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS POISED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT  
WEEK. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING EXACT DETAILS WITH  
THIS SYSTEM DUE IT OCCURING IN THE DAY 6 AND BEYOND TIMEFRAME, AS  
WELL AS DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. 500 MB  
CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEAL THAT AROUND 50% TO 60% OF THE VARIABILITY  
WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPLAINED BY INTERENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES  
REGARDING THE SYSTEM'S LOCATION AND STRENGTH. AS THINGS SIT RIGHT  
NOW, WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND THE RETURN  
OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.  

 
   
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
 
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE MORNING HOURS, RAMPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE, WITH A 10% CHANCE OF 40+  
KNOT GUSTS. EXPECTING A MORE NOTABLE DECREASE IN WINDS LATE TONIGHT,  
POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 10 KNOTS AT TIMES. DURING THIS TIME, CLOUDS  
WILL BE INCREASING AND CIGS DROPPING. THE PROBABILITY OF CIGS LESS  
THAN 8KFT BEGINS TO EXCEED 30% AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. BY THE END OF  
THE TAF PERIOD (~18Z SATURDAY), PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE IN  
THE VICINITY WITH A 50% CHANCE OF CIGS BELOW 3KFT AND 25% CHANCE OF  
CIGS BELOW 1KFT.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS  
THE AREA, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE. MODERATE TO  
SEVERE TURBULENCE NEAR AND EAST OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS CAN BE EXPECTED.  
SHOULD SEE A MORE NOTABLE DECREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT AT KDAG AND THE  
LAS VEGAS VALLEY SITES. LATE TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE  
AND CIG HEIGHTS DECREASE AT KBIH. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS A 30% CHANCE  
OF RAIN BY 10Z SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A 65% CHANCE OF MVFR AND A 25%  
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE AREA TAF SITES REMAIN DRY  
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY, WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 8KFT.  

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MORGAN  
LONG TERM...STESSMAN  
AVIATION...WOODS  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NV Page
The Nexlab AZ Page
The Nexlab CA Page Main Text Page