399
FGUS71 KBUF 282117
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-042130-
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
517 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2024
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH APRIL 11TH
THIS IS THE SEVENTH FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE 2024 SEASON.
FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS INTO EARLY SPRING TO
SUMMARIZE BASIN CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT, CREEK AND
RIVER LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE ON THEM, ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
..CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY
THERE IS NO SNOW PACK IN PLACE IN ANY OF OUR BASINS. THIS IS BELOW
NORMAL, PARTICULARLY IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY
HAVE SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN LATE MARCH.
STREAM FLOWS ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL, EXCEPT THE ALLEGHENY RIVER
WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL. IT'S BEEN FAIRLY DRY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK,
WITH THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWING ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN LOWER PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE RIVER BASIN AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS.
THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF THE CONDITIONS AT 7 A.M. THURSDAY
MORNING, MARCH 28TH:
..BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN
SNOW COVER.......
NONE.
WATER EQUIVALENT.
NONE.
CREEK FLOWS......
NEAR NORMAL.
CREEK ICE........
NONE.
GROUND FROST.....
NONE.
GROUND STATE.....
SEMI-SATURATED.
..GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA
SNOW COVER.......
NONE.
WATER EQUIVALENT.
NONE.
CREEK FLOWS......
NEAR NORMAL.
CREEK ICE........
NONE.
GROUND FROST.....
NONE.
GROUND STATE.....
SEMI-SATURATED.
..ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN
SNOW COVER.......
NONE.
WATER EQUIVALENT.
NONE.
CREEK FLOWS......
BELOW NORMAL.
CREEK ICE........
NONE.
GROUND FROST.....
NONE.
GROUND STATE.....
SEMI-SATURATED.
..BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL
SNOW COVER.......
NONE.
WATER EQUIVALENT.
NONE.
RIVER/CREEK FLOWS
NEAR NORMAL.
RIVER/CREEK ICE..
NONE.
GROUND FROST.....
NONE.
GROUND STATE.....
SATURATED.
..TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
IT WILL BE A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK. MOST IF THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN, BUT SOME WET SNOW MAY
MIX IN AT TIMES. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO
AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
SMALL RISK OF AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR 2-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
2 INCHES.
AFTER SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, A COOL AND MAINLY PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL RISK OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
PRODUCING SYSTEM DURING THIS TIMEFRAME IS LOW, BUT NON-ZERO.
..FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
THROUGH APRIL 11TH THE OVERALL RISK FOR FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL.
THERE IS NO SNOW PACK IN PLACE, AND CURRENT STREAM FLOWS ARE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS BELOW NORMAL. AS A RESULT,
IT WOULD TAKE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM TO CAUSE ANY
FLOODING DURING THE PERIOD. THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, A GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
RESULT IN NO RISK FOR FLOODING.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A LONG AND DRAWN OUT EVENT
WITH PERIODIC WAVES OF PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN A HEAVY BURST OF
RAIN. THE MOST LIKELY STORM TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH WOULD NOT
CAUSE ANY ISSUES SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK IN PLACE. THE SMALL
RISK OF HIGHER STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES WOULD SUPPORT
ACTION STAGE RISES. THIS IS REALLY THE ONLY EVENT OF NOTE FOR THIS
OUTLOOK PERIOD.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER WITH SOME RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS, THE
RISK FOR FLOODING IS NON-ZERO BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR WHAT IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY A SEASON FOR HIGH FLOWS.
..ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF. SINCE CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE, PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND STATEMENTS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FINAL WINTER/SPRING OUTLOOK OF THE
SEASON. AN ADDITIONAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 11 ONLY IF
SNOW PACK BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OR IF THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
RISK AT THE TIME. WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL THE OBSERVERS AND
AGENCIES WHICH HAVE HELPED GATHER DATA IN SUPPORT OF THIS OUTLOOK.
APFFEL
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