128  
FXUS61 KBGM 240609  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
209 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. AN  
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT  
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER  
THE AREA AND REMAIN IN PLACE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH  
PERIODS OF RAIN.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
7 PM UPDATE...  
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE GIVING WAY TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS  
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES  
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING  
RAIN. TIMING AND AMOUNTS LOOK GOOD. ANY SLEET WILL ALSO BE LIGHT  
AND WELL UNDER AN INCH. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND  
DEWPOINTS. STILL A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE  
DIGITS AND TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 30S.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD  
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL  
OVER THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE CENTRAL GR LAKES, AND THESE WILL  
GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN  
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW THIS INCREASE IN  
WARM ADVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT/ENHANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT  
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE PARENT LOW COMING OUT OF THE  
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE STORM SLOWLY BEGINS TO EJECT  
EAST, THE FRONT IS MADE TO CRAWL NORTH OR BECOME NEARLY  
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NY STATE.  
 
THE BIG ISSUE FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL  
FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT  
AS THE STRENGTHENING WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW HELPS PUSH A SURGE OF  
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. SURFACE  
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING  
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR  
ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN  
AND/OR SLEET.  
 
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL TEND TO BE A NON-DIURNAL AS STRONG WAA  
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE  
TEMPERATURES EITHER BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
 
 
THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLUG OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP  
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID/LATE  
MORNING FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES EASTWARD.  
THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING PRECIP WILL DECREASE AS READINGS RISE  
ABOVE 32 IN MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WHAT'S LEFT OF  
THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT IS MADE TO EVENTUALLY BECOME STRUNG OUT  
ROUGHLY ALONG I-90. THE MAIN COLD FRONT BECOMES SNAKED UP NORTH  
OF THE ST. LAWRENCE LEAVING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE  
MILDER AIR BY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL MEAN WE DON'T GET TOO  
TOASTY, BUT RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S WILL RANGE FROM NEAR  
NORMAL OVER THE NE TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
A FAIRLY LARGE N-S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST EARLY IN THE  
EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LEADS TO A MORE OR  
LESS REDUNDANT MENTION OF SHOWERY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS RIGHT  
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A STORM SYSTEM IS MADE TO  
FINALLY BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION, LEADING TO A  
DRIER SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 
THERE IS A SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCE FOR THIS MIDWEEK FRONT WITH  
THE ECMWF SHOWING IT PASSING ABOUT 12 HOURS SOONER THEN THE  
GFS/GEFS. THIS LEADS TO A REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THE RAINFALL  
FORECAST BY DAY 6, SO I MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST  
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  
 
THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE  
END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL COOL TO  
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS TRACKED JUST  
NORTH OF THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK  
(11-13Z).  
 
THEREAFTER, LOWER CEILINGS (MVFR/ALTERNATE REQUIRED) AND  
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CNY/NEPA TERMINAL  
SITES. WE EXPECT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO LAST FOR 1-3 HOURS,  
BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING, WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN  
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
THIS EVENING, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE IFR  
CATEGORY, ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE, FOR MOST TERMINALS.  
THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE KAVP AND KELM, WHICH MAY HANG ONTO  
MVFR/ALTERNATE REQUIRED RESTRICTIONS.  
 
LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS MORNING, WHEN A STRONG SW LOW-LEVEL  
JET OVERRUNS THE REGION (45-50 KT AT AROUND 2000 FEET). THIS  
AFTERNOON, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT MOST SITES, EXCEPT E-SE  
AT KRME AND KSYR, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-22 KT. WINDS  
SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN. SOME  
FREEZING RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT KSYR-KRME, AND  
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KRME.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING  
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.  
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING  
FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TAC  
NEAR TERM...TAC  
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab PA Page Main Text Page