253
FXUS61 KBGM 241902
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PULL NORTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A MUCH NICER DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. OUR RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER
WILL BE BRIEF...AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A
COLD FRONT BISECTING THE CWA AS OF 230PM. JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS THE H500 LOW...AND THERE ARE STILL NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA JUST EAST OF THIS LOW IN AN AREA OF PVA NEAR THE NY
THRUWAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE...BUT THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR THEM TO PUSH NORTH WHILE FURTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHING.
FEEL THAT THE DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE COOLER/DRIER
AIR FILTERS EAST...AND VORTICITY ADVECTION GOES NEUTRAL. TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL..CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FOG...BUT WITH PRETTY GOOD
MIXING...FEEL IT WILL BE ISOLATED AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE ZFP
ATTM.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MUCH QUIETER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR RISING HEIGHTS...AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
BETWEEN 80 AND 85 GIVEN GOOD WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. IT
WILL CERTAINLY BE A WELCOME RESPITE.
AFTER ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD SLEEPING WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. T850 WILL RISE QUICKLY TOWARDS
+15C WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO AROUND 60...EXPECT WE/LL HAVE THE
INSTABILITY NECESSARY TO GENERATE SHRA AND TSRA. WINDS FIELDS AT
THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK GREAT...BUT ISO SVR LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
GFS/NAM DIFFER ON HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT WILL BE AS IT STALLS OVER
THE CWA. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO CONTINUE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
OF A LLEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM. THE GFS WOULD PAINT A MUCH WETTER
PICTURE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...BUT HAVE TENDED TO BELIEVE THE NAM
IN THESE CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS AS IT HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL THIS
SUMMER. HAVE TAKEN HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND 80 GIVEN CLOUDINESS
AND PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING TROF HANGING OUT IN THE
EAST THRU MOST OF THE LONG TERM. GFS BRINGS A HING OF RIDGING TO
FA ON TUE WHILE EURO KEEPS THE EAST IN FAIRLY DECENT TROF. WILL
SIDE WITH PERSISTENCE WITH TROF STICKING ARND AND KEEP IN AFT/EVNG
SHRA/TSTM CHCS INTO THUR. TEMPS WILL RUN NR SEASONAL NORMS. HV
SIDED TWD HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS BASICALLY LITTLE CHG FROM PVS FCST.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY EXPECTED VFR NEXT 24HRS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NR
SHRA/TSRA WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THRU 21Z-22Z. CUD SEE IFR
VSBYS AT ELM OVRNGT FROM 08Z-13Z WITH MIN VIS ARND 2SM. EXPECT
CLRNG SKIES AND SATURATED GRND...BUT WINDS IN BL WILL LIKELY BE
HIGH ENUF TO PREVENT DENSE FOG. SKIES WILL CLR WITH ONLY A FEW
CIRRUS PASSING OVRHD AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SW ARND 5KTS THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDS. FOG POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING WITH POTENTIAL IFR RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT ELM.
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS UL SYSTEM HANGS OVR
THE REGION.
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...POSSIBLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH BEST CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS AHD OF SFC FRONT.
SUN NIGHT THRU TUE...CONTD CHC FOR AFTN/EVNG CONVECTION...WITH
POTENTIAL FOG RESTRICTIONS EACH MRNG.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMA
NEAR TERM...JMA
SHORT TERM...JMA
LONG TERM...PVB
AVIATION...PVB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page