032
FXUS61 KBGM 050006
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
806 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
BRINGING DRY... UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. SOME HIGH...
THIN CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS BY
TO THE SOUTH... BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY... BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS... ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE FOR ONEIDA COUNTY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DROPPED SOUTH
FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.
PREV DSIC...
A BKN CU FIELD REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT
CU ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. THICKER CLOUDS... AND MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE BRUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.
CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNSET... AND I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT A TEMPERATURE DROP
THAT IS FASTER THAN CLIMO THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN COOLER
RIVER VALLEYS... WITH PATCHY FOG PROBABLY DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY INDICATE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME
CAPPING. BASED ON THIS AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA... FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE AWHILE. MIXING MODEL
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM 800 MB WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES.
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 200 TO 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ENOUGH TO
MENTION SOME THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG
WITH THIS SYSTEM...35 TO 50 KTS AT 5KM... INDICATING THAT IT WILL
NEED TO MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS TO
ALLOW CAPES TO GET A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
FORECAST. NW FLOW ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO INDICATES THAT IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
AFTER SOME CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.
LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE'VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE'VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.
LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE'VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE'VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOR THE MOST PART, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY, THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE AT KELM AND KITH. AT KITH, MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT KELM, WENT PREVAILING MVFR FOG BEGINNING AT
08Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. THE LIMITING
CONDITIONS FOR FOG INCLUDE FAIRLY DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH MID EVENING THEN BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG...PRIMARILY AT KELM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MOSTLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RRM/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
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