457  
FXUS61 KBGM 292327  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
727 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, YET MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. THE NEXT  
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS  
THE REGION.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
345 PM UPDATE...  
A SHALLOW COLD FRONT DECIDEDLY SLIPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE  
REGION EARLIER TODAY. PERSISTENT CLOUDS NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS  
HELD BACK DAYTIME HEATING FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE REGION, WHERE  
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STUCK IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S. TO THE  
SOUTH, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 70S  
INCLUDING HAZLETON SCRANTON AND MONTICELLO. A WEAK WAVE ALOFT IS  
TRAVERSING THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS INBOUND  
FOR TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD BUT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY TOO  
STABLE FOR THUNDER. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT THAT THE  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION, AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO TILT  
AND STRETCH OUT. THAT IS, THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL OOZE  
SOUTH FOR A TIME WHILE ALOFT IT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD.  
 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE  
REGION, BUT ALOFT STRONG RIDGING WILL OCCUR. IN ADDITION TO  
ALLOWING LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS TO SCATTER IN FAVOR OF A HIGHER  
LEVEL ONE, THIS SHOULD SQUELCH SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE  
NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE WILL TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE  
RIDGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO  
TOUCH OFF AT LEAST SCATTERED ELEVATED-BASE SHOWERS, AND WITH A  
SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT, PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDER WITH  
THE BETTER CHANCES TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES TO NY THRUWAY  
CORRIDOR. ONCE THAT WAVE PASSES, HOWEVER, MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL BE  
DRY WITH WARMING OCCURRING ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL TWIN  
TIERS THROUGH FINGER LAKES WHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70  
DEGREES.  
 
SUNDAY EVENING, WITH WARM FRONT HANGING ROUGHLY ALONG THE LAKE  
ONTARIO COUNTIES, A WAVE WILL PASS WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME CONVECTION  
TO ATTEMPT SKIMMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THIS IS A PRETTY  
UNCERTAIN, AND PROSPECTS WILL BE MUCH BETTER NORTH OF THE  
FRONT. THUS SHOWER-THUNDER CHANCES WERE KEPT QUITE LOW FOR  
SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS OF MAINLY 50S-NEAR  
60 EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF CATSKILLS AND  
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
3 PM UPDATE...  
 
THIS WILL BE THE TIME WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. A LARGE CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF  
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  
MONDAY THEN QUEBEC TUESDAY. MONDAY MORNING SOLIDLY IN WARM  
SECTOR AND MOSTLY DRY. WITH AN EVENING OCCLUDED FRONTAL PASSAGE  
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL GET INTO THE UPPER 70S CREATING SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY.  
DYNAMICS ARE GOOD WITH 40 TO 50 KT BULK SHEAR. WIND FIELDS VERY  
STRONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ABOVE 100 AND LOW LEVEL JET OVER  
50. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTH. PWATS  
GO TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS HIGH FOR MAY 1ST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE  
AND GUSTY WINDS. FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE SO WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS  
UNDER AN INCH. IN ADDITION RAIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS SHOULD BE  
LIGHT. IN GENERAL AMOUNTS FROM THE PAST WEEK HAVE BEEN UNDER AN  
INCH. GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE A QUICK INCH OF RAIN. FRONT  
AND RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS  
FALLING ONLY TO THE 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
3 PM UPDATE...  
 
CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO CLOSER  
TO AVERAGE OR A LITTLE BELOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER  
THE AREA TO START THEN LIFT SLIGHTLY BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT  
OF COLD AIR ALOFT FRIDAY. FORTUNATELY FAIRLY MOIST SO LITTLE  
CLEARING SO A FREEZE LOOKS UNLIKELY ATTM. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY  
SHOWERS WITH COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF LARGE STORM.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BRIEF BREAK THEN MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHEAST  
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.  
 
HIGHS MID 50S TO LOW 60S WHOLE PERIOD BUT LOW TEMPERATURES FALL  
INTO THE 40S ENTIRE PERIOD. IF ANY CLEARING COULD FALL INTO THE  
30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS  
EVENING...AND ALLOW THE FEW REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS TO LIFT TO  
VFR. SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BKN-OVC VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND PRODUCE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY AT KITH- KSYR-KRME BUT AT LEAST  
POSSIBLE FOR KELM- KBGM. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR,  
BUT A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN THE RAIN  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GRP FOR KITH,KSYR  
AND KRME. AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE  
QUESTION SUNDAY MORNING, BUT INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS BE RATHER  
MINIMAL, SO THUNDER IS NOT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL  
BECOME VARIABLE 5-10 KT THIS EVENING, THEN LIGHT AND EAST LATE  
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE VEERING TO THE S/SE AND  
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR, BUT WITH  
SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDER.  
 
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FROM  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.  
 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MDP  
NEAR TERM...MDP  
SHORT TERM...TAC  
LONG TERM...TAC  
AVIATION...BJT/MDP  
 
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