281  
FXUS61 KBGM 201409  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
1009 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A PASSING COLD FRONT, WILL BRING HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO THE  
AREA, THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY, WITH CLOUDS EVENTUALLY BREAKING,  
FOR SOME LATE DAY SUNSHINE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, WILL BUILD OVER  
THE REGION, TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE  
WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST, LATER MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES THROUGH.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
1010 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS NOW MAINLY EAST OF I-81 NOW AND  
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS CLEARING  
MOST THE NY ZONES BY MIDDAY, BUT MAY LINGER OVER THE POCONOS  
AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS EVEN A  
RUMBLE OF THUNDER, AS THE FRONT SLOWS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO  
CLEAR HOWEVER, AS A STRONG INVERSION LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT.  
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN AND CLEAR THE  
SKIES, LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  
 
3 AM UPDATE... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT WESTERN AND  
NORTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING, JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
SURFACE COLD FRONT. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THIS FRONT WILL  
CROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER QUICKLY TODAY, ULTIMATELY  
PUSHING THROUGH THE POCONOS AND WESTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE  
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT  
ITSELF, ALONG WITH SOME FORCING FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-  
WAVE, SWEEPING BY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO, WILL CONTINUE TO  
PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT  
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDAY AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON HOURS, AND WE'VE THUS MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF  
ISOLATED THUNDER UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT, TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A  
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, SHOULD KEEP SOME POST-FRONTAL  
CLOUDS FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF  
CNY. HOWEVER, BY LATE AFTERNOON, ENOUGH DRYING SHOULD REACH THE  
BOUNDARY LAYER TO PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES AREA-WIDE.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLISH TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN  
AREAS (HIGHS IN THE 60S), OWING TO A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE,  
WHILE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS OF NEPA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY, NY ARE  
LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
310 PM UPDATE... AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORT-WAVE  
RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS CNY AND NEPA TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WE  
CAN EXPECT CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TONIGHT'S CLEARING, ALONG  
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS, AND WET SOILS FROM RECENT RAIN, SHOULD  
LEAD TO LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG.  
 
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD END UP WITHIN THE MID 40S-LOWER 50S RANGE BY  
DAYBREAK. ON MONDAY, WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE  
AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. GIVEN SUCH INSOLATION, AND ALSO THE  
FACT THAT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALREADY BE UNDER WAY,  
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCALES.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT, MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF A  
S-SW LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS JET WILL ACT TO RATHER QUICKLY  
TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK INTO CNY/NEPA, WHILE ALSO PROVIDING AN  
INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION FORCING, ESPECIALLY AS THE NEXT  
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THUS, WE INTRODUCE  
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST, FIRST OVER NEPA AND OUR FAR  
WESTERN ZONES, EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE  
NIGHT WEARS ON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
345 AM UPDATE...  
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR RAIN-EMBEDDED THUNDER INTO TUESDAY  
AS MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE  
RAISED INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN TIER-  
SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES NY. WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PASSES LATE  
TUESDAY NIGHT-EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY ITSELF CONTINUES TO  
LOOK MAINLY DRY; ONLY MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POST  
FRONTAL SHOWER BUT INCOMING SURFACE HIGH WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE  
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO MAKE LINGERING CLOUDS FAIRLY SHALLOW, AND  
DIMINISHING WITH TIME.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
UNDER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO START THEN A RIDGE FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES START OUT AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL  
THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE  
70S FOR THE WEEK. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT SOME MID AND UPPER  
40S A FEW NIGHTS MIDWEEK. NO SIGN OF FROST.  
 
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TUESDAY. MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDS ON THE LOW TRACK AND TIMING. ON THE  
NAM AND GFS THE TRACK IS THROUGH WESTERN NY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
THE EURO IS WEAKER WITH HARDLY ANY LOW AND A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS  
PA ALL DAY. KEPT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN  
CWA WHERE THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE BETTER BUT STILL MEAGER.  
TUESDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE SHOWERS EXIT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON  
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY  
WEATHER, THAT LAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES  
SATURDAY FROM THE WEST. THIS IS A SLOW MOVER WITH LOTS OF  
MOISTURE MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF AHEAD OF IT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
12Z UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST  
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 15-18Z, OWING MAINLY TO LOWER  
CEILINGS, BUT WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS ALSO COMING THROUGH.  
KBGM, KITH, AND KAVP SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME IFR. KELM, KSYR,  
AND KRME WILL SEE MOSTLY FUEL ALTERNATE RESTRICTIONS.  
 
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, CLEARING SKIES WILL BRING A RETURN TO  
VFR.  
 
LATER TONIGHT, WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FORESEEN, AND WET  
GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL, FOG DEVELOPMENT SEEMS  
LIKE A GOOD BET. FOG/IFR RESTRICTIONS WERE INTRODUCED AT SEVERAL  
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.  
 
S-SW WINDS 8-10 KT THROUGH LATE MORNING, WILL SWITCH TO NW BY  
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY...PROBABLE EARLY MORNING FOG, WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS, IN  
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MLJ  
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ  
SHORT TERM...MLJ  
LONG TERM...MDP/TAC  
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM  
 
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