406  
FXUS61 KBGM 172350  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
650 PM EST SUN DEC 17 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER, FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
WEAK DISTURBANCES, WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT  
RAIN OR WET SNOW. A BRIEF RETURN OF SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER, IS  
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
230 PM UPDATE... SATELLITE TRENDS, AS WELL AS OUR LATEST NEAR-  
TERM GUIDANCE, NOW SUGGEST THAT LOWER CLOUDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS  
CNY/NEPA LATER TONIGHT, THEN REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE REGION  
MONDAY, WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE  
ATMOSPHERE.  
 
A FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE WILL ZIP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS  
EVENING, AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF NEPA.  
SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS SO PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE STARVED  
OVERALL, WE DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT. LATER TONIGHT  
INTO EARLY MONDAY, WARM ADVECTION FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER  
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE  
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES  
REGION INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. CONSEQUENTLY, WE EXPECT SOME  
LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK OVER THE NORTHERN  
FINGER LAKES, THE MOHAWK VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL  
REGION. AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM MONDAY, WE  
ANTICIPATE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH TIME, AND PERHAPS PREDOMINATELY  
RAIN SHOWERS BY DAY'S END, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID  
30S-LOWER 40S BY THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
145 PM UPDATE...  
A WEAK TROF ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL  
MOVE ACROSS NY MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST,  
WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER ONEIDA COUNTY, WHERE  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER AND TERRAIN WILL PROVIDE LIFT.  
 
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR +3C ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER, AND  
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE MAXIMUMS IN THE 40S, WITH A  
SCATTERING OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
THE COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, CHANGING RAIN  
SHOWERS BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. A LAKE RESPONSE IS  
EXPECTED OVER ONEIDA COUNTY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
150 PM UPDATE...  
 
A BRISK ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
THE POLAR JET SHOULD CONFINE MOST OF THE COLD AIR TO CANADA, SO  
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NY AND PA.  
 
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT WILL COME TO AN END LATE WEDNESDAY. WIND  
TRAJECTORIES PUTS THE BAND OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY, BUT THE ZONAL FLOW WILL  
USHER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM INTO MICHIGAN EARLY FRIDAY, WITH A  
WARM FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NY/PA. LONG-TERM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE  
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN, BUT IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO  
COMMIT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. FUEL  
ALTERNATE REQUIRED CIGS AT KBGM SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 03Z.  
 
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY, CEILING BASES WILL LOWER AREA-WIDE,  
SUCH THAT WIDESPREAD FUEL ALTERNATE-IFR IS ANTICIPATED. THE MOST  
LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR IFR WILL BE KBGM WITH LOWER CEILINGS, AND  
KRME AND KSYR WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CIGS IN LIGHT  
SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO/BECOME A RAIN/SNOW  
MIX BETWEEN 11-14Z AT KITH, KSYR, KRME...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING  
TO FUEL ALTERNATE REQUIRED OR MVFR AFTER 17Z. SHOULD BECOME RAIN  
AT KITH WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON. KRME AND KSYR MAY  
REMAIN A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER  
WAVE SLIDES EWD THROUGH NRN NY.  
 
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH...SO KELM, KBGM AND  
KAVP SHOULD REMAIN DRY. KBGM MAY SEE PERSISTENT CIGS BELOW MVFR  
THROUGH THE DAY. KELM AND KAVP MAY SEE VFR CIGS BY THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
LIGHT WINDS (5 KT OR LESS) THROUGH TONIGHT, WILL BECOME  
SOUTH/SWLY ON MONDAY AT 5-10 KT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PROBABLE RESTRICTIONS IN LOWER  
CEILINGS, ALONG WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.  
 
WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
SHOWERS, MAINLY KSYR AND KRME.  
 
THURSDAY...VFR.  
 
FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AGAIN IN MIXED  
PRECIPITATION.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MLJ  
NEAR TERM...MLJ  
SHORT TERM...DJP  
LONG TERM...DJP  
AVIATION...BJT/MLJ  
 
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