732
FXUS61 KBGM 071916
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
216 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALTHO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLDS TO OUR IMMEDIATE NW...MDLS
INDICATE INCRSNG LOW LVL MSTR LATER TNGT ACRS CNTRL NY AND NE
PA...WITH NAM/GFS PROFILES SHOWING NEAR SATURATION IN THE 950-850 MB
LAYER LATE TNGT ACRS MOST OF THE BGM CWA. LATEST LAV BULLETINS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS TREND...AND EVEN MOS INDICATES POTNL FOR
BRIEF OVC CONDITIONS LATER TNGT. GIVEN MDL AGREEMENT WILL PLAY THIS
SCENARIO TNGT...WITH MOSTLY CLDY SKIES DVLPNG. XPCT LOW CLDS TO
MIX OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TMRW MRNG...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY TNGT...BUT XPCT MINS ONLY IN THE M/U40S ACRS THE LAKE
PLAIN...WHERE SOME L60S WERE OBSERVED TDA...AND MINS CLOSER TO THE
U30S/A40 ACRS THE SRN CATSKILLS AND NE PA. TEMPS TMRW REBOUNDING
QUICKLY WITH MAXES IN THE M60S WRN SXNS AND A60 EAST...A GOOD 10 DEG
ABV NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
QUIET WX XPCTD TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH WARM SW FLOW. TIMING
DIFFS ARISE WITH THE NXT FROPA...WITH THE NAM BEING A FAST OUTLIER.
LEANED TWDS THE SLOWER EURO/GFS/UKMET/HPC CONCENSUS...WHICH WOULD
BRING THE CDFNT THROUGH ON TUE. VERY MILD TEMPS XPCTD ON MON...WITH
MOST AREAS INTO THE M60S. IF THE WARMER NAM VERIFIES AND WE GET +14C
925 MB TEMPS INTO THE AREA AND FULL SUNSHINE...WE'LL HAVE THE POTNL FOR
SOME 70F MAXES ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. AT ANY RATE
MAXES ON MON WILL AVG ARND 15 DEG ABV NORMAL. ATTM FROPA XPCTD ON
TUE AND CARRIED CHC POFS FOR SHRA THEN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
MODEL DFRNCS ON THE TUE/WED SYSTEM IMPACT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD
WITH THE GFS SLOWEST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS. OPERATIONAL GFS
DVLPS A CLSD H5 LOW BY 12Z WED AND WLD BRING CONT PCPN IN THE
AREA...WITH SOME SNOW LIKELY AT NGT INTO EARLY THU. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE EURO AND THE GFS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM.
ANYWAY...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HPC GUID BASED PARTIALLY ON
THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT ARRIVES. OTRW...GNRLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. AS RDGG BLDS AHD OF THE NEXT MIDWEST
SYSTEM. FLWD HPC GUID FOR TEMPS BUT WILL ADJUST WITH THE LATEST
RUNS AS ABV.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDS WILL CONT THIS AFTN AS SW FOW CONTS. TNGT...MODELS SHOW
SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE AREA BHD A WEAK WRM FNT.
THIS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INV SO XPCTG SOME ST
DVLPMT WITH CIGS GNRLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON SUNDAY...VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT PROMOTES MIXING AFTER SUNRISE SO VFR CONDS SHD RETURN. LGT
SLY WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNGT...THEN SW AT
ARND 10 KTS SUNDAY BHD THE FNT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.
THU...VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page