599
FXUS61 KBGM 091343
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
843 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL WIND DOWN THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY...BEFORE A WINTER
STORM APPROACHES THE REGION THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE POCONOS
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
..UPDATED AT 830 AM
FLURRIES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING...AS
BOUNDARY LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE
PRESENT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY BE TOUGH
TO DISLODGE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME...THICKER
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...THUS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT STEADIER SNOW FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...OR MORE LIKELY AFTER DARK.
THIS MORNING'S TEMPERATURE GRIDS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
YET ANOTHER WINTER STORM IN THE OFFING IN AN ALREADY HISTORIC
WINTER...THIS TIME POSSIBLY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE CWA.
UPPER LVL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NR SIOUX CITY IA IS DROPPING SOUTH
AND EAST THRU THE PLAINS STATES AT THIS TIME. GULF MOISTURE IS
STREAMING NORTH AHD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN MVG INTO
THE MID-SOUTH AND OH/MID-MS VALLEY. SFC LOPRES DVLPNG IN NRN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO HEAD NORTH AND EAST LATER TODAY WITH
GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS ERN MS/WRN AL.
ALL 00Z GUIDANCE PROG SFC WV TO RIDE UP THRU OH VLY IN ASSOC WITH
H5 LOW HEADING EAST. AS THIS UPPER FEATURE APPCHS OH VLY...MUCH OF
THE ENERGY WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO THE COAST WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WEAKENING QUICKLY TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOPRES DVLPS OFF
THE COAST OF HATTERAS THIS EVNG AND DEEPENS RAPIDLY BY WED MRNG
OFFSHORE.
THIS LOW WL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND WHERE IT
ULTIMATELY WINDS UP BY 12Z WED IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. ALTHO
00Z MODELS ONLY VARY BY ABOUT 150 MILES...THIS WL SPELL THE
DIFFERENCE BTWN HVY SNOW ACRS CNTRL/SRN SXNS OF THE CWA OR LGT
AMNTS OVR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH AND POSSIBLY EAST. EURO CONTS TO BE
THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE SFC LOW WHILE GFS/GEM IN FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT AND NAM SLIGHTLY NORTH OF GFS/GEM POSN.
AS FOR UL LOW...MODELS HV TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE. 00Z EURO
RMNS THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE TRACK ACRS THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WITH RMNG GUIDANCE BRINGING H5 LOW ACRS SRN VA. H5 LOW IS ALREADY
APPCHG SW IA AT THIS TIME...WHERE EURO WANTS TO PLACE IT AT 12Z. GUT
FEELING IS THAT THE EURO WILL BE A TAD TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE MVMNT
OF THE SYSTEM...THEREFORE PREFER TO SIDE WITH FURTHER SOUTH
SOLNS...INCLUDING HPC.
QUESTION THEN BCMS HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST PCPN WL BE THROWN BACK FM
LOW CENTER. MODELS OFTEN HV A HARD TIME GETTING QPF FAR ENUF TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER AND QPF IS OFTEN UNDERDONE IN THESE
AREAS.
00Z NAM AND TO A LESSOR EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE SOME WK
FRONTOGENESIS POSSIBLE OVR SERN ZONES WED AFTN...WITH STRONGEST
FORCING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH ACRS SE PA...CNTRL NJ AND INTO LONG
ISLAND. MOST OF THE QPF LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO NR CENTER OF LOPRES
BASED ON GFS AND THINKING IS THAT THIS WL BE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN LINE WITH HPC THINKING WITH LIQUID AMNTS
NR 0.75 INCHES EXPECTED ACRS SRN ZONES FM LATE TONIGHT THRU WED. 00Z
EURO HAS STAYED THE COURSE WITH MVMNT OF SYSTEM BUT IS LIGHTER ON
QPF AMNTS THAN PREVIOUS RUN...PRETTY MUCH CONFIRMING LIQUID AMNTS ON
THE ORDER OF 0.75 INCHES ACRS THE POCONOS OVER TO SULLIVAN CNTY NY.
THUS...WILL BE UPGRADING AREAS FM WYOMING COUNTY PA TO SULLIVAN
COUNTY NY AND POINTS SOUTH INTO THE POCONOS TO WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR SNOW ACCUMS OF 6-10 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH ACRS THE TWIN TIERS
INCLUDING DELAWARE COUNTY NY...WL HOIST WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3-6
INCHES WITH NO HEADLINES PLANNED FURTHER NORTH.
PCPN MAY HOLD ON ACRS FAR SOUTH THRU LATE WED NGT BFR FINALLY
SHIFTING EAST...ALTHO BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE OUT OF AREA BY
WED EVNG.
LK EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM ALTHO H8 TEMPS TAKE AWHILE
TO DROP OFF. IN THE INTEREST OF TIME...VRY FEW CHGS WERE MADE TO
RMNDR OF SHORT TERM. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THRU THE END OF THE PD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 313 PM EST MONDAY...
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TO AT TIMES...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A STRONG
LOW RETROGRADING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE -10C TO -13C RANGE WE
WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. FAVORED
AREAS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BETWEEN SYRACUSE AND
BINGHAMTON...WITH ONLY SCATTERED FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. WITH A
STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE THANKS TO THE STRONG LOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WE WILL SEE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COLD OR WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 EACH DAY.
NEXT SHOT AT SOME SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL COME MONDAY AS BOTH THE 12Z
EURO AND GFS SHOW AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKES IS CAUSING SOME LIGHT LAKE SNOWS NEAR THE
ITH AND BGM TERMINALS, WHERE VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 3SM AND 6SM. THIS LAKE ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN BY MID MORNING
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO BACK.
A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET IS PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL PA, AND IS VERY CLOSE TO REACHING THE ELM AND AVP
TERMINALS. CEILINGS IN THIS AIRMASS ARE AROUND 10000 FEET. THE
MODELS ARE KEEPING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS AIRMASS FROM REACHING ELM
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. WE ARE FORECASTING CEILINGS TO GO VFR AT AVP
BY LATE MORNING, AND AT ELM AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE TERMINALS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER
THE AVP, BGM, AND ELM TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN
1.5SM AND 4SM, WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 800 FEET AND
1500 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT/WED...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW.
LATE WED NGT THRU SUN...VFR WITH MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NYS TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ043-044-047-048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ022-024-055>057.
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DJP
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