327  
FXUS61 KBGM 191911  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
311 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MILD  
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE  
INTO THE 70S THIS WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE  
UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
 
310 PM UPDATE...  
EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERING OF LIGHT FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS  
FRIDAY MORNING, CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR-TERM  
FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER-60S ON  
FRIDAY AS RIDGING RECOVERS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.  
 
1125 AM UPDATE...  
A VERY QUIET DAY IS FORECAST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ATTACHED TO A  
CANADIAN LOW IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT CONDITIONS  
ARE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN  
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN CLEARING AFTER THE  
FRONT PASSES.  
 
250 AM UPDATE...  
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET  
WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING AND  
FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE  
MID ATLANTIC REGION COUPLED WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP  
WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET TODAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER  
S/W CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS  
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST  
TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINLY ACT TO INCREASE MID AND HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AND ALSO INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF FOG THIS  
MORNING. A LAYER OF STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS  
HELPING TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND LIMIT THE AMT  
OF FOG. THIS LAYER OF WIND WILL PARTIALLY MIX DOWN TO THE  
GROUND TODAY AND PRODUCE SW WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.  
THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT  
AND ACT TO INHIBIT FOG ONCE AGAIN.  
 
THE ADDED CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL NOT HINDER THE AMT OF HEATING  
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A  
SLIGHTLY COOLER NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER  
TROUGH FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN  
THURSDAY...ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. STILL VERY PLEASANT FOR  
MID-LATE OCT. THE AIR MASS GETS EVEN DRIER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH  
SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS  
INHIBITING FOG ONCE AGAIN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
WEEKEND IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A  
POWERFUL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND  
WARM WEATHER IN THE AREA, WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST  
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR  
CHILLIER NIGHTS, ONLY ABOUT 5 ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES  
LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS USUAL, THE FASTER GFS BRINGS THE FRONT IN  
AROUND 24 HRS AHEAD OF THE EURO WHICH WAITS UNTIL NEARLY TUESDAY  
NIGHT. BEST COURSE OF ACTION NORMALLY SEEMS TO BE TO LEAN  
TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION WITHOUT COMPLETELY DISREGARDING THE  
GFS. THIS BRINGS CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST MONDAY, BUT STILL  
THE BEST CHANCE TUESDAY WHEN BOTH MODELS HAVE THE FRONT STALLED  
IN OUR VICINITY AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW SWEEPS NORTHWARD  
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL GET A NEEDED  
SOAKING FROM THE SYSTEM THAT WILL HELP MITIGATE THE DEVELOPING  
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KELM EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING, BUT IF FOG DEVELOPS IT IS LIKELY TO BE PATCHY AND  
LIGHT, AS IT WAS EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING  
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AT KELM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 
MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR BUT POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES DUE TO  
SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DJP  
NEAR TERM...BJT/DJP  
SHORT TERM...DGM  
LONG TERM...DGM  
AVIATION...DJP  
 
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