316  
FXUS61 KBGM 250747  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
347 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY  
WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED  
ON WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
3 AM UPDATE...  
 
QUIET FOR NOW WITH NO SHOWERS. SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED  
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO  
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND REMAINS INTO MONDAY. TODAY INSTABILITY  
WILL DEVELOP MIDDAY AS THE SURFACE HEATS UP. WAVES MOVE THROUGH  
WITH A WEAK LATE DAY SURFACE FRONT. THEN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION  
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. IT  
MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHWEST LOW  
LEVEL FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO +5C.  
 
MONDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE TROUGH SETTING OFF MORE  
SHOWERS. BOTH DAYS WEAK INSTABILITY BUT MODERATE SHEAR SO  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY AND AROUND  
70 MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AGAIN LIKE THIS MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
245 AM UPDATE... COOL, UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THIS PERIOD.  
 
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, WILL  
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. LOWS BY  
DAYBREAK SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S. ANY LATE NIGHT  
CLEARING COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG, BUT DUE TO SKY COVER  
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE'LL LET LATER SHIFTS ADD THIS  
MENTION, IF NEEDED.  
 
TUESDAY, AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE LIKELY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE  
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND IMPACTS CNY/NEPA, AT LEAST SCATTERED  
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW, WE'LL CAP  
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES NEAR 50%, AND EMPHASIZE THE DIURNAL  
HEATING MAXIMUM IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL  
DAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
3 AM UPDATE... MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT  
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN  
CONUS WILL LIFT OUT THIS PERIOD, ALLOWING SOME HEIGHT RISES AND  
A MORE ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BRING  
MODERATING TEMPERATURES, WITH DAILY HIGHS BACK TO SEASONAL  
NORMS FOR LATE JUNE-EARLY JULY (70S AND 80S).  
 
MOST OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS RAIN-FREE AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE, WITH  
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OUR MAIN FEATURE. A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERCHED JUST TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MORE HUMID,  
UNSTABLE AIR, WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR LATE WEEK SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PICTURE. HOWEVER, NONE OF THESE DAYS  
LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT, WITH CONVECTION EMPHASIZED DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
130 AM UPDATE...  
 
BIGGEST QUESTION IF VALLEY FOG WILL FORM AT THE TAF SITES. WITH  
THE FAA COMMS PROBLEM MAY NEVER KNOW FOR SURE. UNABLE TO GET AN  
OBSERVATION WITH BUSY PHONE LINES AND NO TOWER PERSONNEL TO SEND  
THEM. WITH DENSE VLIFR FOG AT SIDNEY AND SHOWN ON THE SATELLITE  
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA, HAVE INCLUDED FOR ELM.  
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANYWHERE ELSE BUT IT MAY LIFT INTO AVP/BGM  
ONLY BETWEEN 11 AND 12Z AS IT BURNS OFF. OTHER SITES LOW  
CONFIDENCE. FOR ELM HAVE PUT MVFR VSBY FOG STARTING 7Z WITH A  
TEMPO FOR FLIGHT MINIMUMS AT TIMES BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z.  
 
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL AGAIN FORM WITH A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY AT SYR/RME WHERE TEMPOS FOR LATE DAY  
NONRESTRICTIVE SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED. ELSEWHERE COULD ALSO HAVE  
A SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWER.  
 
LIGHT WEST WINDS OR VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. TODAY WEST  
WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. THIS EVENING BACK  
TO LIGHT WEST OR VARIABLE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT - TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR, BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
WEDNESDAY...VFR.  
 
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TAC  
NEAR TERM...TAC  
SHORT TERM...MLJ  
LONG TERM...MLJ  
AVIATION...TAC  
 
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