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FXCN01 CWAO 020930
MAIN WX DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
UPR L/W INITIALLY OVR NERN NOAM IS FCST TO MOV EWD AND DIG AS S/W FM XTRM NRN
QC COMES IN PHASE TO BE POSITIONED ALG 50W LONG BY T48. THERE IS REASONABLE
CONSENSUS BTN GUIDANCE. UKMET AND GFS ARE A TAD FASTER AND ECMWF SLIGHTLY
SLOWER. DIFF ARE NOT SIG AND MARGINAL MAINLY DUE TO WX CONCENTRATED OVR FIRST
30 HRS.
PRAIRIES UPR TROF WILL ALSO DIG AS IT HEADS EWD AS S/W FM NWT COMES IN PHASE TO
FORM ELONGATED TROF ACROSS HSNBA/NWRN ONT BY END OF PD. AS MENTIONNED IN EARLY,
FX, NEW GEMREG HAS SLOWED DOWN EWD PROGRESSION BUT ADJUSTMENT LOOKS SLIGHTLY
OVRDN. ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN ALMOST IDENTICAL AND THE FAVOURED SOLUTION WHILE
UKMET IS EVEN FASTER.
FURTHER W, NEXT PAC TROF IS FCST TO BE OVR BC/OH/WA BY T48. THERE IS VERY GUD
AGREEMENT BTN GEMREG, ECMWF AND GFS AS WELL AS WITH ENS MEAN. UKMET AND NAM
ARE FASTER AND RJCTD.
OVR ARCTIC ISLNDS, UPR S/W FM ELISL IS FCST TO MOV SWD TO BE POSITIONED OVR SRN
VICISL BY MONDAY EVENING. GEMREG COULD BE SLIGHTLY ON THE FAST SIDE WITH THIS
PROGRESSION BUT DIFF BTN NMRCLS ARE SMALL AND MARGINAL.
ERN RGNS..
DEPRESSION FCST TO TRACK ACROSS SRN NB, GLFSTLWRC THEN NRN NFLD LOOKS TO BE
GNRLY VERY WELL HANDLD BY GEMREG. MAIN WKNS SEEMS TO BE WITH FZG PCPN THAT WERE
OBSVD OVR CAPE BRETON, SERN NB AND PEI...XPCT FZRA AND/OR ICE PL OVR NFLD EARLY
THIS MORNING. GEMREG SEEMS TO HV TENDENCY TO UNDERFCST FZG PCPN EVENTS WHEN WARM
NOSE IS NOT 'OBVIOUS' - I.E. SHARP AND NR ZERO. COMPARING RDRS TO INSTANT PCPN
FCST, MDL HAS GOOD HANDLD OF MOISTURE FIELD. AS DIFF NMRCLS ALL ACT MORE OR
LESS THE SAME WAY WITH THIS STORM, CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH IN GEMREG.
PRAIRIES/ONT/WRN QC SYS..
AS MENTIONNED ABV, THERE IS GUD CONSENSUS WITH THIS FEA WITH XCPTN OG GEMREG
LOOKING A TAD SLOW. MDL HAS MXD PCPN OVR ONT/QC AS WARM AIR MKS IT WAY N OVR
GRTLKS. GEMREG ALSO HAS FZG PCPN OVR CNTRL AND ERN ONT AND OVR WRN QC MAINLY
OVERNIGHT FM MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING. NAM AND GFS HV VERY SIMILAR PCPN TYPES
AND GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS. LOOKING AT PROG TEPHIS, LLVL
INVERSION IS QUITE STRONG AND WARM NOSE GOES EASILY ABV FZG PT. ERN ONT AND
SWRN QC RISK TO HV SLIPPERY CONDS ON MONDAY MORNING. QPF FM GEMREG SEEMS
REASONABLE AND ARE ACCEPTED. NO SIG PROBLEM NOTED WITH THIS WX FEA FM GEMREG.
FURTHER N, OBJ CHARTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR BZD CONDS OVR WRN HSNBA
CST AFTER INVERTED TROF PASSAGE AND VERY COLD WINDCHILL VALUES OVR NWT/NU AS
BUILDING SFC RDG PUSHES ARCTIC AIR TWD SE.
EPAC SYS..
THERE IS VERY GUD CONSENSUS BTN GUIDANCE WITH NEXT FNTL SYS FCST TO REACH BC
CST TODAY. THIS SYS HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH PCPTBL WTR REACHINF ALMOST 25
MM. GEMREG AND GFS BOTH HV MAX PCPN AMOUNTS OVR SAME AREA, NRN AND CNTRL BC
CST. GEMREG QPF LOOKS REASONABLE XCPT FOR LCL MAX. CMC OBJ CHARTS INDICATE
STRONG WINDS PROBABLILITY OVR CNTRL AND NRN CSTS WHICH ALSO LOOKS GUD WITH SWLY
LLJ NR 70KT REACHING CST LATER ON TODAY.
END/PARENT
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