319
FXCN31 CWHX 060600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.40 AM ADT
FRIDAY 06 OCTOBER 2023.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 AM ADT, TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8
N AND LONGITUDE 66.0 W, ABOUT 225 NAUTICAL MILES OR 416 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
45 KNOTS (83 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1005 MB. PHILIPPE IS MOVING
NORTH AT 14 KNOTS (26 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 06 3.00 AM 28.8N 66.0W 1005 45 83
OCT 06 9.00 AM 30.5N 65.8W 1004 45 83
OCT 06 3.00 PM 32.3N 65.8W 1003 45 83
OCT 06 9.00 PM 33.9N 65.9W 1001 50 93
OCT 07 3.00 AM 35.5N 66.1W 998 50 93
OCT 07 9.00 AM 37.3N 66.1W 998 50 93
OCT 07 3.00 PM 39.3N 66.3W 998 50 93
OCT 07 9.00 PM 41.3N 66.9W 998 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 3.00 AM 43.6N 67.6W 998 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 9.00 AM 45.7N 69.2W 1003 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 3.00 PM 47.9N 71.6W 1007 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE HAS A DISORGANIZED AND HEAVILY SHEARED
APPEARANCE. ALL OF THE INTENSE CONVECTION IS OVER 60 NAUTICAL MILES TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTRE. THIS AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION BECAME FARTHER
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTRE LAST EVENING, IMPLYING THE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR MAY BE INCREASING. AT THE VERY LEAST, THE SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE DECREASING. HOWEVER, THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LARGE.
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF PHILIPPE AND TO THE
EAST OF FLORIDA. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
UPPER LOW AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF PHILIPPE HAS BEEN BEEN PERSISTANT
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
B. PROGNOSTIC
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE TRACK OF PHILIPPE TODAY.
EXTRATROPICAL TARNSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND BE
COMPLETE BY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, PHASE SPACE PROGNOSIS INDICATES
THAT PHILIPPE WILL MAINTAIN A WARM SECLUSION WELL AFTER COMPLETING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS AS COLD THICKNESSES
TO THE NORTH AND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRE TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF PHILIPPE WHILE MAINTAINING A HIGH THICKNESS CONTOUR NEAR THE CENTRE
UNTIL THE CENTRE MAKES LANDFALL. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING
TWO CENTRES AS PHILIPPE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AS
THE WHOLE COMPLEX MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE CANADIAN GUIDANCE FORECASTS
A STRONGER TRAILING LOW IMPLYING A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE WHOLE
SYSTEM. SO FAR, THAT IS NOT THE PREFERRED SOLUTION, BUT IT CAN'T BE
RULED OUT.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
06/06Z 150 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 155 180 0 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/18Z 160 180 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 170 180 40 100 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/06Z 180 180 60 120 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/12Z 195 195 90 120 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/18Z 210 210 90 120 50 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 210 225 85 105 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/06Z 210 240 50 90 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 225 270 25 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/18Z 240 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/HATT
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