147
FXCN31 CWHX 061200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.48 AM ADT
FRIDAY 06 OCTOBER 2023.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 AM ADT, TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3
N AND LONGITUDE 65.0 W, ABOUT 125 NAUTICAL MILES OR 232 KM SOUTH OF
BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS (83 KM/H)
AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1002 MB. PHILIPPE IS MOVING NORTH AT 17 KNOTS
(31 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 06 9.00 AM 30.3N 65.0W 1002 45 83
OCT 06 3.00 PM 32.1N 65.4W 1002 45 83
OCT 06 9.00 PM 33.9N 65.9W 1001 50 93
OCT 07 3.00 AM 35.5N 66.1W 998 50 93
OCT 07 9.00 AM 37.3N 66.1W 998 50 93
OCT 07 3.00 PM 39.2N 66.4W 998 50 93
OCT 07 9.00 PM 41.2N 66.9W 998 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 3.00 AM 43.3N 67.8W 998 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 9.00 AM 45.7N 69.2W 1003 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 3.00 PM 48.0N 71.5W 1007 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
AN ASCAT PASS LAST NIGHT AT 2:04Z INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF PHILIPPE WAS NEAR
27.1N AND 69.1W. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
WEST OF PHILIPPE BEGINS NEAR THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW AND EXTENDS WELL
TO THE NORTH OF IT AND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF PHILIPPE.
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISORGANIZED AND HEAVILY
SHEARED STRUCTURE. ALL OF THE INTENSE (BUT VERY PERSISTENT) CONVECTION
REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRE. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR REMAINS
HIGH. PHILIPPE IS MOVING NORTH AT 17 KNOTS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE TRACK OF PHILIPPE TODAY.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND BE
COMPLETE BY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, PHASE SPACE PROGNOSIS INDICATES
THAT PHILIPPE WILL MAINTAIN A WARM SECLUSION WELL AFTER COMPLETING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS AS COLD THICKNESSES
TO THE NORTH AND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRE TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF PHILIPPE WHILE MAINTAINING A HIGH THICKNESS CONTOUR NEAR THE CENTRE
UNTIL THE CENTRE MAKES LANDFALL.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THAT TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTRES WILL
REFORM OR PERSIST AS PHILIPPE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST
AND THE WHOLE COMPLEX MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE CANADIAN GUIDANCE
FORECASTS A STRONGER TRAILING LOW IMPLYING A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
WHOLE SYSTEM. SO FAR, THAT IS NOT THE PREFERRED SOLUTION, BUT IT CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. IN ANY EVENT, SOME SORT OF DUAL LOW PRESSURE CENTRE
REGIME WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED
SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST SEEMS QUITE LIKELY AT THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME
FRAME. THE DETAILS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH
PHILIPPE WILL AFFECT THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE COAST ON
THE SOUTH SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE IMPACT OF
WAVES AND STORM SURGE.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
06/12Z 160 170 0 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/18Z 170 180 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 170 180 40 100 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/06Z 180 180 60 120 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/12Z 200 200 90 120 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/18Z 210 210 90 120 50 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 210 230 70 110 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/06Z 210 240 50 90 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 225 270 30 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/18Z 170 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/HATT/FOGARTY
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