657
FXCN31 CWHX 061800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.58 PM ADT
FRIDAY 06 OCTOBER 2023.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT, POST-TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
31.9 N AND LONGITUDE 64.9 W, ABOUT 30 NAUTICAL MILES OR 56 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
45 KNOTS (83 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1003 MB. PHILIPPE IS MOVING
NORTH AT 14 KNOTS (26 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 06 3.00 PM 31.9N 64.9W 1003 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 06 9.00 PM 33.6N 65.7W 1001 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07 3.00 AM 35.5N 66.1W 998 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07 9.00 AM 37.3N 66.1W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07 3.00 PM 39.3N 66.2W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07 9.00 PM 41.4N 66.5W 987 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 3.00 AM 43.3N 67.5W 987 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 9.00 AM 45.7N 69.2W 988 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
NOT A WHOLE LOT REMAINS OF PHILIPPE OTHER THAN THAT PERSISTENT BALL OF
CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTRE. THE NEW LOW WEST
OF PHILIPPE IS ACTUALLY BECOMING MORE DOMINANT-LOOKING ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE EX-PHILIPPE AS THE REFERENCE POINT
FOR MESSAGING AND TRACK GOING FOWARD.
B. PROGNOSTIC
THE FORECAST IS A COMPLEX ONE NOW THAT THE LOW OFF THE U.S. COAST HAS
BECOME INVOLVED. THERE IS NO ONE SPECIFIC PIECE OF NWP BEING USED
SOLEY FOR GUIDANCE, RATHER, COMPONENTS FROM DIFFERENT MODELS AS WELL
AS OUR CONCEPTUAL KNOWLEDGE OF DUAL CYCLONE DYNAMICS. A NUMBER OF
MODELS DEPICT TWO LOW CENTERS CROSSING THE CANADIAN FORECAST DISTRICTS
SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS COMBINED SYSTEM
SINCE IT WILL HAVE SOME SUB-TROPICAL TYPE CHARACTERISTICS THAT COULD
REQUIRE US TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AND PROVIDE EXPERTISE FOR COLLEAGUE
METEOROLOGISTS IN THE IMPACTED WEATHER OFFICES.
SOME CYCLONE PHASE SPACE PROGNOSES INDICATE THAT EX-PHILIPPE/COMBINED
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A WARM SECLUSION UP TO NOVA SCOTIA LATITUDE,
WHICH IS THE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTIC MENTIONED ABOVE.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME MODELS SUCH AS AN OVERNIGHT RUN OF THE GFS PREDICT
A COMPACT CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA
SCOTIA. IF THIS WERE TO MATERIALIZE, WARNINGS WOULD BE REQUIRED AND
BE ISSUED BY THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE IN COORDINATION WITH
US (CHC). THE MODEL RUN PREDICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY, SO WE WILL BE WATCHING WATER VAPOUR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOSELY
FOR SIGNS OF THIS FEATURE.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
06/18Z 170 180 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 170 180 40 100 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/06Z 180 180 60 120 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/12Z 200 200 90 120 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/18Z 210 210 90 120 70 55 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 210 230 70 110 80 85 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/06Z 210 240 50 90 80 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 225 270 30 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/HATT/FOGARTY
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