122
FXCN31 CWHX 070000
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.42 PM ADT
FRIDAY 06 OCTOBER 2023.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 PM ADT, POST-TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
32.9 N AND LONGITUDE 64.9 W, ABOUT 33 NAUTICAL MILES OR 60 KM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
45 KNOTS (83 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1002 MB. PHILIPPE IS MOVING
NORTH AT 13 KNOTS (24 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 06 9.00 PM 32.9N 64.9W 1002 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07 3.00 AM 35.0N 65.4W 998 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07 9.00 AM 37.2N 65.7W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07 3.00 PM 39.2N 66.0W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07 9.00 PM 41.5N 66.2W 987 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 3.00 AM 43.6N 67.0W 987 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 9.00 AM 46.1N 68.4W 988 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
NOT A WHOLE LOT REMAINS OF PHILIPPE OTHER THAN THAT PERSISTENT BALL OF
CONVECTION NOW WELL-DISPLACED EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTRE. THE NEW
LOW WEST OF PHILIPPE'S LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ACTUALLY BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT-LOOKING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE
EX-PHILIPPE AS THE REFERENCE POINT FOR MESSAGING AND TRACK GOING
FOWARD, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WE ARE MONITORING NOW IS MOSTLY COMPRISED
OF THE WESTERN LOW.
B. PROGNOSTIC
THE FORECAST IS A COMPLEX ONE NOW THAT THE LOW OFF THE U.S. COAST HAS
BECOME INVOLVED. THERE IS NO ONE SPECIFIC PIECE OF NWP BEING USED
SOLEY FOR GUIDANCE, RATHER, COMPONENTS FROM DIFFERENT MODELS AS WELL
AS OUR CONCEPTUAL KNOWLEDGE OF DUAL CYCLONE DYNAMICS. A NUMBER OF
MODELS DEPICT TWO LOW CENTERS CROSSING THE CANADIAN FORECAST DISTRICTS
SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS COMBINED SYSTEM
SINCE IT MAY HAVE SOME SUB-TROPICAL TYPE CHARACTERISTICS THAT COULD
REQUIRE US TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AND PROVIDE EXPERTISE FOR COLLEAGUE
METEOROLOGISTS IN THE IMPACTED WEATHER OFFICES.
SOME MODEL CYCLONE PHASE SPACE PROGNOSES INDICATE THAT THE
EX-PHILIPPE/COMBINED SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A WARM SECLUSION UP TO NOVA
SCOTIA LATITUDE, WHICH IS THE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTIC MENTIONED
ABOVE. ADDITIONALLY, SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
PREDICT A COMPACT CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MAINE. IF THIS
WERE TO MATERIALIZE, WIND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED AND BE ISSUED BY
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE IN COORDINATION WITH US (CHC).
THE MODEL RUN PREDICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY, SO
WE WILL BE WATCHING WATER VAPOUR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF THIS FEATURE.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
07/00Z 170 180 40 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/06Z 180 180 60 120 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/12Z 200 200 90 120 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/18Z 210 210 90 120 70 55 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 210 230 70 110 80 85 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/06Z 210 240 50 90 80 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 225 270 30 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/FOGARTY/HATT
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