134
FXCN31 CWHX 070600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.44 AM ADT
SATURDAY 07 OCTOBER 2023.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 AM ADT, POST-TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
34.8 N AND LONGITUDE 65.3 W, ABOUT 149 NAUTICAL MILES OR 277 KM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
45 KNOTS (83 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 998 MB. PHILIPPE IS MOVING
NORTH AT 18 KNOTS (33 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 07 3.00 AM 34.8N 65.3W 998 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07 9.00 AM 37.0N 65.7W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07 3.00 PM 39.2N 66.0W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07 9.00 PM 41.5N 66.2W 987 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 3.00 AM 43.6N 67.0W 987 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 9.00 AM 46.1N 68.4W 988 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
AN ASCAT PASS AT 02Z CAPTURED THE DOMINENT LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
REMNANTS OF PHILIPPE VERY WELL AND PEGGED THE CENTRE AT 34.0N 69.8W.
THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTRE OF THE
MAIN LOW. ASCAT ALSO SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS LOW
WITH A LARGE AREA OF 30 KNOT WINDS NORTH OF IT. THE REMNANT OF
PHILIPPE IS CONTAINED WITHIN THIS TROUGH. THE INTENSE CONVECTION THAT
WAS PERSISTENT YESTERDAY EAST OF PHILIPPE HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY. CONVECTION NEAR
THE MAIN LOW HAS BEEN INCREASING SINCE LAST EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO USE EX-PHILIPPE AS THE REFERENCE POINT FOR MESSAGING AND TRACK
GOING FOWARD, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WE ARE MONITORING NOW IS MOSTLY
COMPRISED OF THE WESTERN LOW.
B. PROGNOSTIC
THE FORECAST WILL BE AN ONGOING COMPLEX ONE WITH THE MAIN LOW TAKING
OVER AS THE DOMINENT FEATURE AND THE PHILIPPE REMNANT ACCELERATING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST OF IT. THERE IS NO ONE SPECIFIC
PIECE OF NWP BEING USED SOLEY FOR GUIDANCE, RATHER, COMPONENTS FROM
DIFFERENT MODELS AS WELL AS OUR CONCEPTUAL KNOWLEDGE OF DUAL CYCLONE
DYNAMICS. A NUMBER OF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT TWO LOW CENTERS
CROSSING THE CANADIAN FORECAST DISTRICTS. THIS "DOUBLE-BARRELED"
SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE BECOMING THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION. AT 06Z BOTH GFS
AND GDPS HAVE A LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND A LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
GEORGES BANK OR WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE. BETWEEN THE LOWS IS NW-SE ORIENTED
TROUGH. THE DETAILS OF THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THESE LOWS WILL
DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND ADJACENT WATERS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS COMBINED SYSTEM SINCE
IT MAY HAVE SOME SUB-TROPICAL TYPE CHARACTERISTICS THAT COULD REQUIRE
US TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AND PROVIDE EXPERTISE FOR COLLEAGUE
METEOROLOGISTS IN THE IMPACTED WEATHER OFFICES.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
07/06Z 180 180 60 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/12Z 200 200 90 120 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/18Z 210 210 90 120 70 55 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 210 230 70 110 80 85 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/06Z 210 240 50 90 80 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 225 270 30 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/HATT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page