830
FXCN31 CWHX 071200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.52 AM ADT
SATURDAY 07 OCTOBER 2023.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 9.00 AM ADT, POST-TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
37.0 N AND LONGITUDE 66.0 W, ABOUT 410 NAUTICAL MILES OR 759 KM SOUTH
OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS (93
KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 995 MB. PHILIPPE IS MOVING NORTH AT 23
KNOTS (43 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 07 9.00 AM 37.0N 66.0W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07 3.00 PM 39.3N 66.2W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 07 9.00 PM 41.5N 66.6W 987 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 3.00 AM 43.5N 67.2W 987 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 08 9.00 AM 46.1N 68.4W 988 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
AN ASCAT PASS AT 02Z CAPTURED THE DOMINENT LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
REMNANTS OF PHILIPPE VERY WELL AND PEGGED THE CENTRE AT 34.0N 69.8W.
THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTRE OF THE
MAIN LOW. ASCAT ALSO SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS LOW
WITH A LARGE AREA OF 30 KNOT WINDS NORTH OF IT. THE REMNANT OF
PHILIPPE WAS CONTAINED WITHIN THIS TROUGH AND WAS LIKELY JUST OUTSIDE
OF THE ASCAT PASS.
THE INTENSE CONVECTION THAT WAS PERSISTENT YESTERDAY EAST OF PHILIPPE
HAS DISSIPATED AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY. INTENSE CONVECTION
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN LOW HAS BEEN PERSISTENT EARLY THIS
MORNING. JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS A SWIRL THAT
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE'S REMNANTS. IN ANY EVENT, IT SEEMS
PHILIPPE TOOK A SIGNIFICANT JOG TO THE WEST AS IT COMBINED WITH THE
MORE DOMINENT LOW. THE INITIAL POSITION FOR THE TRACK INDICATES THIS
AND MAY EVEN BE NOT FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE EX-PHILIPPE AS THE REFERENCE POINT FOR
MESSAGING AND TRACK GOING FOWARD, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WE ARE
MONITORING NOW IS MOSTLY COMPRISED OF THE WESTERN LOW.
B. PROGNOSTIC
THE FORECAST DETAILS ARE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WITH THE MAIN LOW TAKING
OVER AS THE DOMINENT FEATURE AND THE PHILIPPE REMNANT ACCELERATING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST OF IT. THERE IS NO ONE SPECIFIC
PIECE OF NWP BEING USED SOLEY FOR GUIDANCE, RATHER, COMPONENTS FROM
DIFFERENT MODELS AS WELL AS OUR CONCEPTUAL KNOWLEDGE OF DUAL CYCLONE
DYNAMICS.
THIS "DOUBLE-BARRELED" SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE BECOMING THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES NOVA SCOTIA. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT AS OF 06Z SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A LOW IN
THE GULF OF MAINE AND A LOW IN THE VICINITY OF GEORGES BANK OR WEST
SCOTIAN SLOPE WITH A TROUGH IN BETWEEN THEM. THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT NOW THAT THE SOUTHERN LOW NEAR GEORGES BANK WILL CROSS
WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA LATER SUNDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND TO THE EAST OF THE
PATH OF THIS LOW.
THE CHC WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TILL THIS EVENING TO PROVIDE EXPERTISE FOR
COLLEAGUE METEOROLOGISTS ON THE CHALLENGES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
07/12Z 240 200 90 120 135 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/18Z 250 210 90 120 160 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/00Z 300 230 70 110 180 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/06Z 295 240 50 90 50 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
08/12Z 340 270 30 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/FOGARTY/HATT
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