256  
FXUS61 KBOX 100754  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA  
254 AM EST WED JAN 10 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT  
BRINGING MILDER WEATHER ON THURSDAY. UNSEASONABLY MILD  
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH  
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SOME FLOODING. THE RAIN MAY END AS SOME ICE ACROSS THE INTERIOR  
ON SATURDAY IF THE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEFORE THE  
PRECIPITATION ENDS. DRY AND VERY COLD WEATHER IS FAVORED SUNDAY  
INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.  
THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DESPITE  
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...THE LOW JANUARY SUN ANGLE AND LIMITED  
MIXING SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
 
 
TONIGHT...  
 
INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL  
RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOISTURE/FORCING IS QUITE LIMITED SO  
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE  
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING  
RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST MA. CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THIS IMPACTS OUR  
REGION OR STAYS TO OUR NORTH IS UNCERTAIN...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY  
NEED TO CONSIDER A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IF CONFIDENCE  
INCREASES. LOW TEMPS THIS EVENING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE  
20S TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT  
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW.  
 
THURSDAY...  
 
A RATHER MILD DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST  
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL PROBABLY  
RESULT IN AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...BUT SOME PEEKS OF SUN ARE  
STILL ANTICIPATED. WHILE WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR  
TWO...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING  
SHOULD RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY  
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD AMPLIFY OVER THE LOWER 48, WITH A BUILDING  
UPPER RIDGE IN THE EAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES.  
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD CUT OFF OVER THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THU NIGHT AND THEN LIFT NW, WITH  
ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE RIDING FROM THE TN VALLEY UP THE  
APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL TAP INTO GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE  
AND HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN  
FRI INTO SAT, THE FIRST WITH A LEADING AREA OF LOW LEVEL  
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT DAYTIME FRI, THEN ANOTHER JUST AHEAD OF THE  
SFC LOW AND ANOTHER WARM FRONTAL APPROACH LATE FRI NIGHT AND  
POSSIBLY INTO SAT MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE MILD  
SIDE, FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 40S THU NIGHT, THEN RISING TO THE  
MID 50S ON FRI PER BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL RAW 2M TEMPS.  
 
AFTER THE LOW PASSES, PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MAINLY  
ACROSS INTERIOR MASSACHUSETTS ON SAT BEFORE ENDING SOME TIME  
LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING. COLDER WX EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR  
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW POSSIBLY BRINGING  
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON TUE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
 
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS BECOME SSW  
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOW RISK FOR  
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN NORTHWEST MA.  
 
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING UNCERTAIN BUT THREAT FOR  
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EARLY EVENING.  
 
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY TOWARDS  
SOUTHEAST COAST WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT. INCREASING CHANCES OF RA,  
PATCHY BR.  
 
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT. RA,  
OCCASIONAL +RA, PATCHY BR.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA,  
OCCASIONAL +RA, PATCHY BR.  
 
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS  
15-25 KT. OCCASIONAL +RA EARLY. RA MIXING WITH SN TOWARDS  
INTERIOR DURING DAY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT WITH  
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.  
 
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
 
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS ALLOWING  
ANY LEFT OVER WINDS AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
THRESHOLDS BY DAYBREAK. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON THE WATERS  
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  
 
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO  
15 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOTS ARE  
ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE INVERSION OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD  
OCEAN...FEEL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT  
HEADLINES INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: WIND GUST TO 25 KT FOR SOME PARTS OF LI SOUND  
AND OUTER OCEAN WATERS. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. RAIN.  
 
FRIDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH LOCAL  
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOW RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 35 KT FOR  
SOME WATERS. ROUGH SEAS APPROACHING UP TO 10 FT. RAIN,  
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 11-13 FT.  
RAIN, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY.  
 
SATURDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT  
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 13 FT. RAIN, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY  
EARLY.  
 
SUNDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS UP TO 9 FT EARLY.  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/99  
NEAR TERM...FRANK  
SHORT TERM...FRANK  
LONG TERM...99  
AVIATION...FRANK/99  
MARINE...FRANK/99  
 
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