473  
FXUS61 KBOX 100559  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
159 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IS ON TAP TUESDAY AND AN APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
AND NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CHRIS, WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS, IS  
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY  
MORNING, BUT LIKELY PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD CONFINE IMPACTS TO  
HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR  
THE LATEST FORECASTS ON CHRIS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE  
CENTER. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THIS WORK  
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
930 PM UPDATE...  
 
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SNE, WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE NW WHICH  
WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SW FLOW AND HIGHER  
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS  
MAINLY IN THE 60S, WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER  
LOCATIONS IN THE CT VALLEY IN NORTHERN MA AND INTERIOR SE MA.  
SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL  
PRONE LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
UPDATE 320 PM...  
 
TUESDAY...  
 
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACH  
LATE IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY BUT SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ENTER NORTHERN MA AFTER 3-4PM. MARGINAL  
INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND MOISTURE SO NOT EXPECTING MANY IF ANY  
STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE.  
 
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH 850 TEMPS +17C TO +18C. THUS ANOTHER ROUND  
OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH  
COAST. MORE HUMID WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S REGIONWIDE. ALTHOUGH A  
MODEST WSW WIND WILL TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT.  
 
TUE NIGHT...  
 
COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. SUFFICIENT LIFT,  
INSTABILITY ALOFT COMBINED WITH SHEAR TO KEEP SCATTERED  
CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING SEVERE GIVEN  
THE MARGINAL PARAMETERS. INTERESTING SETUP AS TC CHRIS TRACKS  
WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL  
JET STREAK NORTH OF HURRICANE, ALMOST A PRE SETUP BUT DEEP LAYER  
MOISTURE APPEARS LACKING. ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH JUST IN  
CASE DEEP MOISTURE FROM CHRIS IS ADVECTED FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR  
AREA. OTHERWISE JUST EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED  
THUNDER OVERNIGHT. WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ALTHOUGH SOME  
RELIEF TOWARD WED MORNING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE  
NORTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS...  
 
* TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A  
HURRICANE, BUT PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION WED/THU.  
IMPACTS PROBABLY CONFINED TO HIGH SURF/DANGEROUS RIP  
CURRENTS ON OCEAN-EXPOSED BEACHES.  
 
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WED THROUGH SAT, BUT A RETURN TO ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUN/MON WITH DRY WEATHER DOMINATING MUCH  
OF THIS TIME.  
 
* WEAKENING FRONT COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS  
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND. MOST OF THE TIME REMAINS DRY.  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...  
 
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME REMAINS TROPICAL STORM CHRIS,  
WHICH WAS STILL LINGERING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS  
MORNING. WHILE CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY  
TUESDAY, 09/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN  
OFFSHORE TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THERE IS  
MORE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF ASPECT, WITH THE  
INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE LAGGING THE U.S. MODELS BY ABOUT 6 HOURS.  
IN EITHER CASE, OUR REGION SHOULD BE ON THE NW SIDE OF CHRIS AS  
IT PASSES BY. THE MAIN THREAT FOR OUR REGION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT  
LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELLS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO HIGH SURF AND  
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTH-FACING OCEAN-EXPOSED BEACHES.  
 
THERE IS A LOW RISK THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN IMPACTS THE FAR  
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY, BUT OVERALL MAINLY  
DRY/COMFORTABLE WEATHER ANTICIPATED.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...  
 
NEAR NORMAL SUMMER WARMTH FRI/SAT EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUN/MON AFTER MORE TIME WITH A PERSISTENT  
S/SW WIND. DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS TIME. STILL  
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THIS  
WEEKEND AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND A FEW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES  
POSSIBLY APPROACH OUR REGION. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS  
SHOULD FOLLOW BE OF THE TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY  
EVENING VARIETY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
TODAY...  
VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 20Z ACROSS  
INTERIOR MA. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN  
ANY T-STORMS.  
 
TONIGHT...  
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SNE. MAINLY VFR,  
BUT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/T-STORMS. WINDS SHIFTING TO  
NORTH.  
 
WEDNESDAY...  
MAINLY VFR. A FEW MORNING SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SE NEW ENG.  
 
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.  
 
SATURDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT. LOW RISK FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS  
SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE VSBY SHOULD BE GOOD.  
 
S-SW FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER TUE, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT  
POSSIBLE NEAR THE SE COASTLINE AND BUILDING OUTER SEAS AHEAD OF  
CHRIS. THESE MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TUE. RISK FOR  
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM AS WELL TUE.  
 
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
 
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.  
 
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS  
APPROACHING 5 FT.  
 
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR MAZ013-016>023.  
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA  
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA  
SHORT TERM...NOCERA  
LONG TERM...BELK  
AVIATION...BELK/KJC  
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA  
 
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