240  
FXUS61 KBOX 110752  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
352 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE COAST TODAY. HURRICANE  
CHRIS WILL PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RESULTING IN MAINLY  
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE  
HUMIDITY. A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED  
OUT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO  
DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP  
ACROSS SNE AS MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS  
WITH HIGH KI VALUES SOUTH OF THE PIKE AND MOVING TOWARD THE  
SOUTH COAST, SO MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD  
T-STORM THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BE CONFINED TO RI AND SE MA TO THE  
SOUTH COAST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THIS  
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND CAN'T RULE  
OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG THE  
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY  
DAY, BUT AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION A WEAK  
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN  
THE COLUMN FOR THE RISK OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN  
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN HALF MA AND NORTHERN CT WHERE  
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS IS LOCATED.  
 
HURRICANE CHRIS PASSES OVER 300 MILES SE OF ACK LATER TODAY WITH  
ONLY IMPACT BEING INCREASED SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SOUTH  
COASTAL BEACHES. HOWEVER, SURF IS EXPECTED TO FALL A BIT SHORT  
OF HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 
N/NE FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
EASTERN MA. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S EAST COASTAL MA TO  
THE LOW/MID 80S IN THE CT VALLEY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
 
 
TONIGHT...  
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND.  
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS DROPPING  
INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE, EXCEPT LOWER 60S FOR BOSTON.  
 
THURSDAY...  
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT  
WINDS WHICH WILL PROMOTE COASTAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING. TEMPS  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S,  
A BIT COOLER CAPE/ISLANDS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS...  
 
* MAINLY DRY THU/FRI WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE  
HUMIDITY  
 
* HOT WEATHER RETURNS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND  
WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, DRY WEATHER SHOULD  
DOMINATE MOST OF THIS TIME  
 
DETAILS...  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...  
 
WITH CHRIS PASSING WELL SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK, AND MOVING  
FARTHER AWAY THURSDAY, ANY LINGERING SOUTH SWELL SHOULD  
DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD  
OUR REGION, PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HUMIDITY INCREASES FRIDAY FROM  
THURSDAY, BUT STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE.  
 
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...  
 
TRICKY PATTERN SHIFT DURING THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD  
LIFT OUT TO SOME EXTENT, WITH A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH POISED  
TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL ALL COME DOWN  
TO TIMING, WHICH REMAINS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO THE FAIRLY ZONAL  
FLOW. IN MOST CASES, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO START RISING THIS  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AT LEAST AWAY FROM ANY OCEAN  
INFLUENCE.  
 
HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE, TOO. WITH NO SYNOPTIC FEATURE  
TO REALLY FORCE THE ISSUE, ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD  
BE MORE OF THE AIRMASS VARIETY, DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY  
DIURNAL HEATING. WHILE WE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME, MUCH OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD  
REMAIN DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
THROUGH 12Z...  
MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS FOCUSED  
ACROSS RI AND SE MA, SHOULD REACH THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE COD  
TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOW RISK OF PATCHY FOG OVER ACK TOWARD  
DAYBREAK.  
 
TODAY...  
MAINLY VFR CIGS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
SOUTH COAST EARLY. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CT  
AND WESTERN MA THIS AFTERNOON. N/NE WINDS.  
 
TONIGHT...  
MAINLY VFR, BUT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG POSSIBLE OVER ACK.  
 
THURSDAY...VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.  
 
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.  
 
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
 
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
NE FLOW AVERAGING 10-20 KTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH  
DIMINISHING WIND LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS BECOMING  
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS ON THU AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP.  
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL BE INCREASING LONG  
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE CHRIS. SEAS WILL  
BUILD TO 5-7 FT LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING OVER OUTER SOUTHERN  
WATER BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT AND THU.  
 
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING  
5 FT.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING  
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KJC  
NEAR TERM...KJC  
SHORT TERM...KJC  
LONG TERM...BELK  
AVIATION...BELK/KJC  
MARINE...BELK/KJC  
 
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