500  
FXUS61 KBOX 120216  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
1016 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES  
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY. A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER  
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
10PM UPDATE...  
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A 1024MB HIGH CONTINUES  
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING, KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY  
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. HURRICANE CHRIS IS NOW 400 MILES ESE  
OF NANTUCKET AND MOVING NE TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND AND AS A RESULT,  
HIGH SURF AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO TOMORROW.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
THIS EVENING...DIURNAL CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS  
LINGER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS AND NORTHERN CT, THEN  
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT A QUIET  
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND. RADIATIONAL  
COOLING WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S REGION  
WIDE, EXCEPT LOWER 60S FOR BOSTON.  
 
HURRICANE CHRIS PASSES OVER 300 MILES SE OF ACK TONIGHT WITH  
ONLY IMPACT BEING INCREASED SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SOUTH  
COASTAL BEACHES. HOWEVER, SURF IS EXPECTED TO FALL A BIT SHORT  
OF HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY, THEN  
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE  
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES, SHARPENING THE UPPER TROUGH  
OVER OUR AREA. FORECAST CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE  
BETWEEN 700 AND 850 MB TO SUPPORT SOME CLOUDS, BUT JET DYNAMICS  
IS UNFAVORABLY PLACED AND STABILITY PARAMETERS UNFAVORABLE FOR A  
BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT.  
 
SO WE EXPECT A SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEA  
BREEZES TO AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN  
THE 50S, A DRY COMFORTABLE DAY. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE SIMILAR TO  
THOSE TODAY, SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND MID  
70S ALONG THE COAST.  
 
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER  
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
OVERVIEW...  
 
11/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE  
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. POTENT  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO  
SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH TIME.  
STILL THINKING A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO  
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THE LESS PREDICTABLE  
DETAILS.  
 
TEMPERATURES...  
 
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE THE HEAT  
AND HUMIDITY START TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND  
OF 90+ DEGREE HEAT IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  
HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED TO DROP OFF BEHIND A COLD FRONT SOMETIME  
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
PRECIPITATION...  
 
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH MONDAY. STILL  
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME POP-UP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS  
TIME. MORE WIDESPREAD RISK FOR SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOWARD TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
TONIGHT...  
MAINLY VFR. SMALL CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR FOG POSSIBLE OVER ACK AND  
PARTS OF OUTER CAPE COD.  
 
THURSDAY...VFR. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.  
 
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND  
THURSDAY, THEN SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT.  
EXPECT LIGHT WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH WITH THE DIRECTION  
TRENDING FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO FORM THURSDAY NEAR THE  
SHORE.  
 
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE WATERS WILL BE A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL  
FROM DISTANT HURRICANE CHRIS. A 5 TO 6 FOOT SWELL HAS BUILT  
INTO THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND, AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE  
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS  
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
HIGH TIDE WILL BE ELEVATED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE  
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST, SUCH AS  
NANTUCKET HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY, WILL ALSO HAVE ELEVATED  
TIDES.  
 
THE JULY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK, WITH  
HIGHEST VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE ASTRONOMICAL  
TIDE, THERE WILL BE A LEFTOVER 0.2 TO 0.4 FOOT SURGE FROM  
THE DISTANT AND DEPARTING HURRICANE CHRIS. THE COMBINATION OF  
THESE ELEMENTS MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, WITH  
THE BEST CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
BOSTON ASTRO HIGH TIDE...  
 
12.06 FEET THURSDAY 11:22 PM  
12.25 FEET SATURDAY 12:16 AM  
12.23 FEET SUNDAY 1:11 AM  
 
NANTUCKET ASTRO HIGH TIDE...  
 
4.33 FEET FRIDAY 12:21 AM  
4.38 FEET SATURDAY 1:18 AM  
4.34 FEET SUNDAY 2:15 AM  
 
NEWPORT ASTRO HIGH TIDE...  
 
4.91 FEET THURSDAY 8:05 PM  
4.99 FEET FRIDAY 8:58 PM  
4.92 FEET SATURDAY 9:51 PM  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK  
NEAR TERM...BELK/CORREIA  
SHORT TERM...WTB  
LONG TERM...BELK  
AVIATION...WTB/BELK  
MARINE...WTB/BELK  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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