692  
FXUS61 KBOX 120708  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
308 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES  
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY. A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER  
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER NEW ENG TODAY AND SOUNDINGS  
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MOISTURE  
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING. WHILE A  
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE INTERIOR CAN'T BE RULED OUT PER SOME OF THE  
HI-RES MODELS, EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY AS ENVIRONMENT IS  
STABLE AND OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS LIMITED.  
 
TEMPS ALOFT SIMILAR TO WED, SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S  
INTERIOR AND 70S ALONG THE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.  
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
 
 
TONIGHT...  
 
QUIET NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO  
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, WITH LOWER 60S  
URBAN CENTERS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE IN  
THE TYPICAL PRONE LOCATIONS.  
 
FRIDAY...  
 
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS EAST OF NEW ENG AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE  
THROUGH THE FLOW. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH SCT-  
BKN CU DEVELOPING BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE  
WARMING WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 925 AND 850  
MB TEMPS SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S INTERIOR  
AND 70S ALONG THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
OVERVIEW...  
 
11/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE  
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. POTENT  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO  
SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH TIME.  
STILL THINKING A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO  
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THE LESS PREDICTABLE  
DETAILS.  
 
TEMPERATURES...  
 
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE THE HEAT  
AND HUMIDITY START TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND  
OF 90+ DEGREE HEAT IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  
HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED TO DROP OFF BEHIND A COLD FRONT SOMETIME  
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
PRECIPITATION...  
 
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH MONDAY. STILL  
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME POP-UP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS  
TIME. MORE WIDESPREAD RISK FOR SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOWARD TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. SEA  
BREEZES LIKELY TODAY AND FRI. SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG  
POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL PRONE LOCATIONS.  
 
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING  
15-17Z. .  
 
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
SWELL FROM HURRICANE CHRIS IS DIMINISHING. SOME 5 FT SEAS MAY  
LINGER INTO THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS, OTHERWISE  
SEAS BELOW 5 FT THROUGH FRI. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TURNING  
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS SEA  
BREEZES DEVELOP.  
 
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS  
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RATHER HIGH DURING THE NIGHT TIME  
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FORTUNATELY WAVE  
ACTION WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AND SURGE IS LIMITED.  
HOWEVER, LEFTOVER SE SWELL MAY RESULT IN MINOR SPLASHOVER FOR  
VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG EAST COASTAL MA TONIGHT.  
 
TIDES ARE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT SO  
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SPLASHOVER ARE POSSIBLE DURING THESE HIGH  
TIDE CYCLES.  
 
BOSTON ASTRO HIGH TIDE...  
 
12.06 FEET THURSDAY 11:22 PM  
12.25 FEET SATURDAY 12:16 AM  
12.23 FEET SUNDAY 1:11 AM  
 
NANTUCKET ASTRO HIGH TIDE...  
 
4.33 FEET FRIDAY 12:21 AM  
4.38 FEET SATURDAY 1:18 AM  
4.34 FEET SUNDAY 2:15 AM  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
RI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR  
ANZ254>256.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN  
NEAR TERM...KJC  
SHORT TERM...KJC  
LONG TERM...BELK  
AVIATION...BELK/KJC  
MARINE...BELK/KJC  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC  
 
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