869
AGUS74 KFWR 261708
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CST MON FEB 26 2018
VALID FEBRUARY 26 THROUGH MARCH 3
...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL RETURN FORECAST
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED TO MORE A "SPRING-LIKE" SET UP...AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS PUTTING THE WGRFC
AREA IN A FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES HAVE BEEN RIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ENHANCING RAIN
CHANCES. MOISTURE IS NOT A PROBLEM.
AT THIS TIME, EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AGAIN,
MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FOR THAT PART OF TEXAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS, AGAIN, AROUND THE ARKLATEX.
EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, MEAN AREAL PRECIPITATION (MAP)
AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST TEXAS. MAP AMOUNTS
OF 0.25 INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE TEXAS
EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO DEL RIO LINE.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS
ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS. LIGHT MAP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO, AS WELL AS THE SAME IMPACTED AREAS
OF TEXAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS
ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS. LIGHTER MAP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS.
FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, NO SIGNIFICANT MAP AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WGRFC AREA.
NOTE - THIS PRODUCT WILL NO LONGER BE GENERATED AFTER MARCH 1, 2018.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
..SAN JACINTO BASIN
..MODERATE FLOODING
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS GENERATED RUNOFF, WITH MOST OF THE SAN
JACINTO SYSTEM FLOWING ABOVE BASE FLOW. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF THE WEST
FORK AND EAST FORK HAVE BEEN PUSHED INTO ACTION STAGE AND MINOR FLOOD.
PEACH CREEK AT SPLENDORA (SPDT2) IS BEGINNING TO CREST NOW AND MAY
REACH MODERATE BY THE END OF THE DAY, BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY
SITE THAT MAY REACH MODERATE LEVELS. EXPECT ONLY MINOR OR ACTION STAGE
TO BE REACHED AS THE WATER IS ROUTED DOWNSTREAM.
..TRINITY BASIN
..MODERATE FLOODING
RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE TRINITY. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND ANY FUTURE
RAINFALL THIS WEEK WILL GENERATE RUNOFF. A FLOOD WAVE IS MOVING DOWN
THE TRINITY WITH MODERATE FLOODING FORECAST FOR THE TRINIDAD AREA
(TDDT2).
DOWNSTREAM, MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR LIBERTY, WITH HIGHER
FLOWS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND PROBABLY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
..NECHES BASIN
..MODERATE FLOODING
WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THEN ENTIRE NECHES
RIVER BASIN WITH MODERATE FLOODING FORECAST AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
LOWER BASIN.
..SABINE BASIN
..MODERATE FLOODING
MOST OF THE SABINE RIVER BASIN HAS HAD MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE PAST FIVE DAYS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ESTIMATING IN EXCESS
OF 10 INCHES NEAR AND BELOW TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
FORECAST ON THE MAINSTEM SABINE AND TRIBUTARIES DOWNSTREAM OF
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. BAYOU ANACOCO (RPIL1) AND THE SABINE RIVER
AT BON WEIR (BWRT2) AND DEWEYVILLE (DWYT2) ARE FORECAST TO REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS WEEK. SPILLWAY GATES ARE OPEN
AT TOLEDO BEND, RESULTING IN A RELEASE NEAR 24,000 CFS. UPSTREAM
OF THE LAKE, ONLY ACTION STAGE IS EXPECTED ON THE SABINE RIVER
AT LOGANSPORT (LPTL1), BUT THE REST OF THE SABINE IS IN MINOR OR
MODERATE FLOOD UP AS FAR AS MINEOLA (MLAT2).
..REMAINDER OF WGRFC BASINS
A FEW RIVERS NEAR THE COAST ARE RISING TO ACTION STAGE DUE
TO RECENT RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH MAY SEE RENEWED RISES DUE
TO SATURATED SOILS. RIVERS IN THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN BASEFLOW.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
THE FOLLOWING URLS (ALL LOWER CASE) PROVIDE ADDITIONAL GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS, PAST AND
FUTURE PRECIPITATION, AND DROUGHT AND CLIMATE FORECASTS. THIS
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY A VARIETY OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,
NOAA, AND PRIVATE SECTOR ENTITIES.
NOTE - THIS PRODUCT WILL NO LONGER BE GENERATED AFTER MARCH 1, 2018.
ALL INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/QUICK_BRIEFING
FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON RIVER CONDITIONS, REFER TO THE AHPS
PAGES FROM THE LOCAL NWS OFFICES AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/WGRFCFOP
THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS NOW ON FACEBOOK:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSWESTGULF
NATIONAL PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/
THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS (QPF) CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/WGRFCQPFPAGE
THE US DROUGHT ASSESSMENT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT
THE LATEST ON RESERVOIR INFORMATION FOR TEXAS:
HTTP://WWW.WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE
WALLER
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