259
AGUS74 KFWR 271628
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1027 AM CST TUE FEB 27 2018
VALID FEBRUARY 27 THROUGH MARCH 4
...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL RETURN TODAY ACROSS NORTH
AND EAST TEXAS...
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED TO MORE A "SPRING-LIKE" SET UP...AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS PUTTING THE WGRFC
AREA IN A FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES HAVE BEEN RIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ENHANCING RAIN
CHANCES. THEREFORE, MOISTURE IS NOT A PROBLEM.
AT THIS TIME, EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL INCLUDE PORTIONS OF
NORTH EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS..MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
AND EAST OF I-35. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS, AGAIN, AROUND THE ARKLATEX.
BASED ON THIS ACTIVITY, ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SABINE, NECHES AND TRINITY RIVER SYSTEMS.
EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
FOR TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MEAN AREAL PRECIPITATION (MAP)
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.00 INCH ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2.00
INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN
0.25 INCH ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS.
FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN
0.25 INCH ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
NOTE - THIS PRODUCT WILL NO LONGER BE GENERATED AFTER MARCH 1, 2018.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
..TRINITY BASIN
..MODERATE FLOODING
SOILS ARE SATURATED AND ANY FUTURE RAINFALL THIS WEEK WILL GENERATE
RUNOFF. WITH CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL SOME OF THE UPPER TRINITY
SITES WILL RAISE BACK INTO ACTION AND MINOR FLOODING. A FLOOD WAVE
IS MOVING DOWN THE TRINITY WITH MODERATE FLOODING FORECAST
FOR THE TRINIDAD AREA (TDDT2).
DOWNSTREAM, MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR LIBERTY (LBYT2), WITH
HIGHER FLOWS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND
PROBABLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SLOW
THE RECESSIONS BY ABOUT A DAY OR SO KEEPING FLOOD LEVELS LONGER INTO
THE WEEK.
..NECHES BASIN
..MODERATE FLOODING
WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE ENTIRE NECHES
RIVER BASIN WITH MODERATE FLOODING FORECAST AT SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE LOWER BASIN.
..SABINE BASIN
..MODERATE FLOODING
MOST OF THE SABINE RIVER BASIN HAS HAD MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE PAST FIVE DAYS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ESTIMATING IN EXCESS
OF 10 INCHES NEAR AND BELOW TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING
OR FORECAST ON THE MAINSTEM SABINE AND TRIBUTARIES DOWNSTREAM OF
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. BAYOU ANACOCO (RPIL1) AND THE SABINE RIVER
AT BON WEIR (BWRT2) AND DEWEYVILLE (DWYT2) ARE FORECAST TO REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS WEEK. SPILLWAY GATES ARE OPEN
AT TOLEDO BEND, RESULTING IN A RELEASE NEAR 35,425 CFS. UPSTREAM
OF THE LAKE, ONLY ACTION STAGE IS EXPECTED ON THE SABINE RIVER
AT LOGANSPORT (LPTL1), BUT THE REST OF THE SABINE IS IN MINOR OR
MODERATE FLOOD UP AS FAR AS MINEOLA (MLAT2). ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED IN THE HEADWATERS PUSHING STREAMS BACK INTO MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS.
..SAN JACINTO BASIN
..MINOR FLOODING
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS GENERATED RUNOFF, WITH MOST OF THE SAN
JACINTO SYSTEM FLOWING ABOVE BASE FLOW. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF THE
WEST FORK AND EAST FORK HAVE BEEN PUSHED INTO ACTION STAGE AND
MINOR FLOOD.
..SAN BERNARD BASIN
..HIGHER FLOW NON-FLOOD FORECASTS
RAINFALL WILL PUSH THE SAN BERNARD NEAR EAST BERNARD (EBBT2) INTO
ACTION STAGE CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF WGRFC BASINS
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WHICH MAY SEE RENEWED RISES DUE TO SATURATED SOILS.
RIVERS IN THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN BASEFLOW.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
THE FOLLOWING URLS (ALL LOWER CASE) PROVIDE ADDITIONAL GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS, PAST AND
FUTURE PRECIPITATION, AND DROUGHT AND CLIMATE FORECASTS. THIS
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY A VARIETY OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,
NOAA, AND PRIVATE SECTOR ENTITIES.
NOTE - THIS PRODUCT WILL NO LONGER BE GENERATED AFTER MARCH 1, 2018.
ALL INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/QUICK_BRIEFING
FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON RIVER CONDITIONS, REFER TO THE AHPS
PAGES FROM THE LOCAL NWS OFFICES AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/WGRFCFOP
THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS NOW ON FACEBOOK:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSWESTGULF
NATIONAL PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/
THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS (QPF) CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WGRFC/WGRFCQPFPAGE
THE US DROUGHT ASSESSMENT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT
THE LATEST ON RESERVOIR INFORMATION FOR TEXAS:
HTTP://WWW.WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE
MCCANTS
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