072
WTPZ45 KNHC 161441
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND
WITH THE CENTER REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB AND AN OBSERVATION OF 35 KNOTS FROM SHIP A8GT6 SUGGEST THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. KIKO IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 5 DAYS.
THEREFORE...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.
KIKO HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS. MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME BRINGING KIKO
EASTWARD TOWARDS MEXICO AND OTHERS BUILDING A RIDGE TO THE NORTH
FORCING KIKO WESTWARD. MOST OF THE TIME...THIS MODEL SPLIT IS AN
INDICATION THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK.
THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION OR A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED DURING
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL AND SLOW TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION OF THE GFS...HWRF...GFDL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/1500Z 14.2N 108.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.3N 108.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 108.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.3N 108.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 109.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 16.0N 109.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W 35 KT
FORECASTER AVILA
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