859
WTPZ45 KNHC 180233
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2007
NEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE FIRED NEAR THE CENTER OF KIKO AFTER
IT WAS EXPOSED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS A RATHER ELONGATED SHAPE AND IT IS UNKNOWN HOW
SEPARATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FROM THE ITCZ. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CHANGES TO THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THIS
SYSTEM WILL ABATE IN A DAY OR TWO WHICH...ASSUMING THE SYSTEM
SURVIVES...WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. IN FACT THE
SHIPS/HWRF/GFDL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISHEVELED PATTERN ON
SATELLITE...I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE STORM SHOWS MORE SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION BEFORE JUMPING ON THE HURRICANE KIKO BANDWAGON.
HOWEVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARDS AT DAYS 3-5 IN
DEFERENCE TO OUR BEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/7...WHICH INDICATES A SMALL TURN
TOWARD THE LEFT IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. KIKO APPEARS TO BE CAUGHT
UP IN LOW-LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MORE THAN A DAY OR
SO DUE TO A BUILDING MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THIS RIDGE
SHOULD FORCE THE STORM TO TURN LEFTWARD WITH TIME AND CAUSE A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN A COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE BIG QUESTION
IS WHETHER THE STORM WILL BE TOO CLOSE BY THEN TO MISS MEXICO.
MOST MODELS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO...
ESPECIALLY THE 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN. THE ECMWF/GFDN/NOGAPS/UKMET
MODELS ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER OR CLOSE TO MEXICO DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THOSE
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SHOWING SOME THREAT TO
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WATCHES MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY IF THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.8N 104.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.2N 104.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 103.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 16.8N 103.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 17.4N 104.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 18.5N 105.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 19.0N 106.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 20.0N 107.0W 60 KT
FORECASTER BLAKE
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