764
WTPZ45 KNHC 180846
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 AM PDT THU OCT 18 2007
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE INITIAL MOTION RELIES HEAVILY ON EXTRAPOLATION. WHILE
CONVECTION APPEARS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
KIKO CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS THUS
FAR LIMITED STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE SHEAR WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSUMING THE
CYCLONE SURVIVES...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME STRENGTHENING. IN FACT THE SHIPS/HWRF/GFDL MODELS ALL SHOW
KIKO BECOMING A HURRICANE. GIVEN THE RATHER BROAD CIRCULATION AND
THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BELOW THE GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINS KIKO AS A TROPICAL STORM.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/6. THE TRACK FORECAST HINGES ON
WHETHER OR NOT KIKO CAN BREAK FREE FROM THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK AND
POORLY DEFINED...IT COULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST
OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CONVERSELY...IF THE CYCLONE
WERE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME DEEPER...IT WOULD TEND TO BE STEERED
NORTHWESTWARD BY A BUILDING MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND
INTERACTION AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO HAVE A WEST BIAS IN CASES
WHERE CYCLONES MOVE CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND IS RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS WATCHES AND/OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.4N 104.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.9N 103.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.7N 103.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 103.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 18.2N 104.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 108.0W 55 KT
FORECASTER RHOME
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