649
WTPZ45 KNHC 192031
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF KIKO DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES BACK AROUND 12Z WERE NEAR 50 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT BASED ON THIS DATA. THERE IS
GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR OUTFLOW
ELSEWHERE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/4. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR SHOULD STEER KIKO SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ITS EFFECTS ON KIKO. THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...ECMWF...AND UKMET ALL FORECAST THE TROUGH TO
DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW KIKO TO TURN WESTWARD BY
72-96 HR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE TURN EARLIER AND FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN STILL SHOW THE
TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND MOVING FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO TURN KIKO
NORTHWARD...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF REMAIN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.
AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR THE TROUGH AND CALL FOR KIKO TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER
72 HR...WITH A TRACK NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACKS OF THOSE MODELS.
THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HR...
AND THEN IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THEREAFTER.
KIKO SHOULD REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 48-72
HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL
NOW CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT...THE GFDL 74 KT...AND THE
HWRF 108 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN COMPROMISES BETWEEN
THESE WITH A FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT. AFTER 72 HR...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR AS KIKO REACHES COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE A
WEAKENING TREND...WITH MORE WEAKENING SHOWN THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER DUE TO AN EXPECTED FASTER MOTION INTO THE COOLER WATERS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.5N 105.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 17.8N 106.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 18.4N 106.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 19.2N 107.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 20.0N 107.9W 70 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 109.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 110.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W 50 KT
FORECASTER BEVEN
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