547
WTPZ45 KNHC 200232
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT...THE ARE ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...AND MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT THE LOW
AND MID -LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED. DVORAK T-
NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 45 KNOTS...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS. THERE IS A
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS. SHIPS ONLY
SHOWS A MODEST STRENGTHENING AND BARELY BRINGS KIKO TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHILE THE TWO OTHER MODELS MAKE KIKO A STRONGER HURRICANE.
THERE ARE NO APPARENT REASONS WHY KIKO SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN. THE
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE KIKO IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INSISTS ON A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING AND KIKO SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY OR
TWO.
KIKO HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES
AT 4 KNOTS. A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL LIKELY KEEP KIKO ON
THE SAME GENERAL SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...I
EMPHASIZE...HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. RELIABLE MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF KIKO AND EVENTUALLY FORCE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
EQUALLY RELIABLE UK AND GFDL/HWRF GROUP SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN TO THE AREA OF CABO
CORRIENTES AND THE SEA OF CORTES. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...TURNING KIKO WESTWARD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND AWAY FROM MEXICO. HOWEVER...WE MUST BE READY TO
MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IF THE NORTHWARD TREND SUGGESTED
BY THE UK/GFDL/HWRF RUNS BEGINS TO MATERIALIZE. THIS OPTION COULD
RESULT IN A STRONGER CYCLONE SINCE THE OCEAN IS VERY WARM NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. SO STAY TUNED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 17.7N 105.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 18.1N 106.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 19.0N 107.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 19.7N 107.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 21.0N 109.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 21.5N 111.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 22.0N 114.5W 50 KT
FORECASTER AVILA
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