578
WTPZ45 KNHC 210237
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007
LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED BANDING
PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A
RATHER SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. A 0010 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE
OVERPASS REVEALED AN EYE FEATURE OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.
THE OUTFLOW OF KIKO REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH...BUT IT
IS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO A SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING KIKO...WHILE THE HWRF SHOWS
VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BETWEEN AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS KIKO TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS KIKO PASSES WEST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND
COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/5...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION. KIKO IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE VERY
SOON. THE MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT LESS AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE
INTERACTION OF KIKO AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES. THE GFDL AND 18Z UKMET DEEPEN THE TROUGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP KIKO ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROUGH WILL BYPASS KIKO AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER
SCENARIO THAT THE KIKO WILL RESPOND TO THE BUILDING RIDGE AND TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
SINCE KIKO IS MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO..THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...SINCE THE WESTWARD
TURN IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN TO MATERIALIZE...INTERESTS ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND IN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE KIKO OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 18.9N 107.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 19.6N 107.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 20.2N 108.1W 70 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 21.0N 110.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 21.5N 113.7W 45 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 22.0N 117.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 26/0000Z 22.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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