276
WTPZ45 KNHC 210859
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF KIKO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST
6 TO 12 HOURS. A 0253 UTC SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED AN EYE
FEATURE SIMILAR TO AN EARLIER PASS...BUT CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS YET TO REVEAL SUCH A FEATURE. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A BLEND OF THE TWO...60 KT.
FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS...KIKO HAS BEEN ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A
HURRICANE. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KIKO'S
INTENSITY COULD BE REACHING ITS PEAK. ONLY THE GFDL BRINGS KIKO TO
MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WHILE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM
OCCURRING IN THE NEAR TERM. THEREAFTER...KIKO IS FORECAST TO
ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS ALONG WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AND ICON...
WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE DSHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5...AND KIKO IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THE
RIDGE AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 OR SO HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE...
HOWEVER...VARIES IN THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL COMMENCE. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A
BLEND OF THE UKMET... NOGAPS...HWRF...AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.
SINCE KIKO IS CURRENTLY MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND
THE WESTWARD TURN IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN TO MATERIALIZE...INTERESTS
ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE KIKO
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 19.3N 107.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 19.8N 107.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 20.2N 108.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 20.6N 109.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 21.1N 110.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 23.0N 117.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 23.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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