235
WTPZ45 KNHC 211450
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007
EVEN THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO BE THAT
STRONG...AN EARLIER TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
BECOMING SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. MOREOVER...CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING...AND LIGHTENING DATA
SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF CORE CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT KIKO MAY
HAVE PEAKED AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED BUT A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT AND
THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. GIVEN THE PRESENT APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...IT APPEARS THAT KIKO WILL NOT BECOME A HURRICANE AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING.
KIKO IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...330/2...WITHIN A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF KIKO AND FORCING A TURN
TOWARDS THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. THE GFDL IS THE ONLY DYNAMICAL
MODEL WHICH DOES NOT SHOW THIS WESTWARD TURN MATERIALIZING WITHIN
THE FIRST 24 HOURS. INSTEAD...THE GFDL MAINTAINS A STRONG AND
VERTICALLY ALIGNED VORTEX THAT CONTINUES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. SINCE WEAKENING HAS ALREADY
COMMENCED...THE GFDL IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A WESTWARD TURN BEGINNING LATER TODAY.
NONETHELESS...INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE KIKO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 19.3N 107.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 19.7N 107.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 20.1N 108.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 20.6N 110.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 22.0N 115.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 23.5N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/1200Z 24.5N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
FORECASTER RHOME
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