437
WTPZ45 KNHC 212036
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT KIKO HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED DURING
THE DAY. DEEP CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED...LIMITED...AND
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON THIS TREND. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...INCREASING STABILITY....AND DRIER
AIR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT KIKO WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4
DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.
IT APPEARS THAT KIKO IS BEGINNING TO TURN WESTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A RIDGE
BUILDS IN ITS WAKE...TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS WESTWARD
TURN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH WITH SOME EVEN SHOWING A MOTION TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE GFDL REMAINS THE NORTHERNMOST OUTLIER BUT EVEN THAT
MODEL NOW BYPASSES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE
SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS KIKO TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNTIL THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN HAS FULLY
MATERIALIZED...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 19.5N 107.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 19.7N 108.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 20.1N 109.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 20.4N 111.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 20.7N 112.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 23.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/1800Z 25.0N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
FORECASTER RHOME
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