167
WTPZ45 KNHC 220246
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007
KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SLOWLY DECREASING
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET A LITTLE BELOW THE CONSENSUS OF
THE DATA T-NUMBERS. QUIKSCAT WAS SCHEDULED TO PASS OVER THE CYCLONE
A SHORT TIME AGO...AND DATA FROM THIS PASS SHOULD SOON PROVIDE A
BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
EVEN THOUGH KIKO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS...SOUTHERLY
SHEAR AND A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
WEAKENING PROCESS. DESPITE THE SEEMINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THE
GFDL MAINTAINS KIKO AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FOR A COUPLE MORE
DAYS. THE SHIPS AND HWRF GUIDANCE PREDICT A FASTER RATE OF
WEAKENING AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE MODELS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT KIKO WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
A TIMELY 2356 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN
LOCATING THE CENTER OF KIKO THIS EVENING. THIS IMAGERY ALONG WITH
EARLIER CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES...SUGGEST THAT THE MUCH
ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN HAS COMMENCED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 300/3. KIKO IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD SOUTH OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ALL PREDICT THAT KIKO WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THE GFDL REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE AND
INDICATE A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT
IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 19.6N 108.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 19.7N 108.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 19.9N 110.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 20.0N 111.8W 25 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 20.2N 114.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page