387
WTPZ45 KNHC 220833
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2007
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS PLODDING ALONG AT ABOUT
300/2 TO THE SOUTH OF A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ALL THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT KIKO IS ABOUT TO COME UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING AS THIS
TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A TURN
TO THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. EVEN THE GFDL...
WHICH IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND HAS HAD A
NORTHWARD BIAS WITH THIS STORM...TAKES KIKO SAFELY SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH...BUT
SLOWER THAN...THE UKMET...AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. SINCE IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT ANY FURTHER WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY...PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON KIKO ARE BEING
DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.
THE EARLIER WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED FOR THE TIME
BEING. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0140Z SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...PARTICULARLY
AT THE UPPERMOST LEVELS...BUT AS KIKO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE THE SHEAR COULD TEMPORARILY LESSEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WITH WARM WATERS UNDER THE CYCLONE...KIKO COULD MAINTAIN
STORM STATUS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION
OF COOL WATER...DRY AIR...AND INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A
FAIRLY SWIFT DEGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE TO A REMNANT LOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 19.6N 108.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 19.8N 108.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 19.9N 110.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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