152
WTPZ45 KNHC 222033
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2007
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER FROM THE CONVECTIVE BURST LAST NIGHT HAS
CLEARED OUT...LEAVING AN UNOBSTRUCTED VIEW OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS YIELDS A MUCH MORE CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 265/8...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE AND JUST SOUTH OF
DUE WEST. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND NEARLY
ALL MODELS SUGGEST A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS
IT APPROACHES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AND
IT NOW APPEARS THAT KIKO IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO REMNANT LOW STATUS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT AND SIGNIFICANT
REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A VERY DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 19.5N 109.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.3N 111.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 19.2N 113.6W 25 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 19.1N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 24/1800Z 19.3N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/1800Z 20.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER RHOME
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