901
WTPZ45 KNHC 230831
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2007
KIKO CONTINUES TO GENERATE SMALL BURSTS OF CONVECTION...WITH THE
LATEST BURST DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. AN SSM/I
OVERPASS AT 0144Z SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30
KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING FASTER...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 260/11.
KIKO IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST 48 HR BEFORE A DEEP-LAYER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KIKO. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION OR
ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD FOR 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD
MOTION THAN ON THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS NOTABLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED WESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD CAUSE KIKO TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HR OR
LESS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW LONG
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL LAST. THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS
SHOW IT LASTING THROUGH FIVE DAYS...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW IT
WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN LESS THAN 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND FORECAST THE REMNANTS TO
DISSIPATE BY 96 HR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 19.1N 112.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.9N 114.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 24/0600Z 18.9N 116.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 24/1800Z 19.0N 118.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/0600Z 19.4N 120.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 26/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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