181
WTPZ45 KNHC 231435
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2007
THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE A COOLER OCEAN
AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR. SO KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.
KIKO IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL
LIKELY MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE PREVAILING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 18.6N 113.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 114.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 24/1200Z 18.5N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 25/0000Z 19.0N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/1200Z 19.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 26/1200Z 21.5N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER AVILA
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