494
WTNT41 KNHC 290858
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT 850 MB...BUT DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER LIKELY REFORMED AGAIN TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF HAITI. THE DROPSONDE
DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS NOW LIKELY AROUND 1002 MB. THERE WAS AN SFMR
REPORT OF 42 KT...ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND ON THIS
BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF NOEL
IS INFLUENCING THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN
FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE RIDGE IS
THEN FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NOEL NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE ECMWF AND UKMET...WHICH RUN A WEAK LOW ALONG OR SOUTH OF
CUBA...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AS A RESULT OF THE
NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL...WHICH IS NOT WELL-DEFINED
TO BEGIN WITH...WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN OF HAITI FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. ASSUMING IT SURVIVES THE PASSAGE...THE
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD DIMINISH AND ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES RESTRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE GFDL AND
HWRF. BY DAYS 4-5...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTERRUPT THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH
A FRONTAL ZONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0900Z 18.0N 72.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 19.4N 72.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 21.1N 74.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 22.2N 75.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 23.0N 75.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 76.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 29.0N 74.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 32.0N 70.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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