847
WTNT41 KNHC 292059
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007
THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI
EARLIER TODAY...HAS SINCE BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
325/13...AND IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER WAS TOO CLOSE TO LAND FOR THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO FLY DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CENTER...BUT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT
WITH A POSITION ESTIMATED FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 37 KT AT THE
SURFACE...WHILE SFMR ESTIMATES PEAKED A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR 50 KT.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE ESTIMATES. THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE
STORM HAS A VERY SPRAWLING APPEARANCE...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS
EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO HISPANIOLA.
THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE
GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS...THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER BUT HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS...WHILE THE GFS PROVIDES THE
WESTERNMOST TRACK. DURING THIS PERIOD NOEL SHOULD CONTINUE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW SOON THIS TURN
WILL MATERIALIZE AND HOW FAST NOEL WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...PERHAPS
DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER
AS NOEL HEADS NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
THIS FORECAST IS AGAIN IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 20.9N 74.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 22.4N 75.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 23.7N 77.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 24.7N 78.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.8N 79.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 68.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
FORECASTER KNABB
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