597
WTNT41 KNHC 300306
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007
SO FAR...NOEL HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY BETTER ORGANIZED ON
SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A BROAD AND SPRAWLING
APPEARANCE. SOME CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
OCCURRING FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE HOLGUIN RADAR IN CUBA ALSO
INDICATED THAT THE STORM WAS NOT YET VERY WELL ORGANIZED.
CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE BUT LIMITED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES.
THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO FIND ON INFRARED IMAGES BUT A 1002 MB SHIP
OR BUOY OBSERVATION NEAR 0000 UTC WAS LIKELY NOT FAR FROM THE
CENTER. THE HOLGUIN RADAR WAS ALSO USEFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/11. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO TURN NOEL
NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
TRACK PREDICTION MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...
GFDN...AND NOGAPS...HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE
AROUND THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FLORIDA COAST.
ACCORDINGLY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME...
ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IS PROBABLY
STILL HAVING A SLIGHT INHIBITING EFFECT ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF
NOEL. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER LOW IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. THEREFORE SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...WESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG AND THIS
SHOULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION. BY DAY 4 OR SOONER NOEL WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD BE
TRANSFORMED INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
AFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE MIAMI WFO...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. HIGH WIND
WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM
BEACH COUNTIES DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE APPROACH OF NOEL.
HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY....DEPENDING ON THE FORECAST TRACK
AND WIND RADII OF THE TROPICAL STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 21.2N 75.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 22.2N 76.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 23.3N 77.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 24.4N 78.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 25.5N 78.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 28.5N 75.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 04/0000Z 38.0N 64.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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