986
WTNT41 KNHC 300842
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT
CENTER OF NOEL HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE CUBAN
WEATHER STATION 78365...PUNTA LUCRECIA... REPORTED A WIND SHIFT AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF NEAR 1000 MB AS THE CENTER MOVED NEARBY. THE
RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE U.S AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 52
KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 50 KNOTS. NOEL HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN
A LITTLE BIT MORE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM CUBA AND BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 65 KNOTS
WHICH IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.
CUBAN RADARS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280
DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND THEN NORTHWARD...AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD
RECURVE OR MOVE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AWAY FROM
THE UNITED STATES. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BEYOND 3
DAYS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL TRACK
GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY TURNS NOEL SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM FLORIDA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TODAY
IF NOEL MOVES FATHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE WINDS
EXPAND.
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE
NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS
FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 21.3N 76.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 22.2N 77.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 23.3N 78.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 24.5N 78.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 77.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 31.0N 72.4W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 03/0600Z 37.0N 66.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 04/0600Z 45.0N 58.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
FORECASTER AVILA
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