761
WTNT41 KNHC 301500
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL
REMAINS INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA. PLENTY OF RAIN BANDS...
HOWEVER...STILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...CONTINUING THE HEAVY RAINS FOR HISPANIOLA THAT HAVE
ALSO SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IS 40 KT...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OCCURRING IN THE BANDS
BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE NEXT AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT SCHEDULED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT SINCE
THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL LIKELY SPEND THE DAY OVER LAND...AS THE
AIRCRAFT DO NOT TYPICALLY MAKE CENTER FIXES OVER LAND.
THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 270
DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
AS THAT RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...NOEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFF OF CUBA AND
EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE IS
NOT AGREED UPON BY THE VARIOUS MODELS...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS
DOES NOT BRING NOEL BACK OVER WATER UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...AND
NEITHER WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS ALONG THE SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS
SLOWER DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS.
THE FORECAST OF AN EXTENDED STAY OVER CUBA REQUIRES A LOWER
INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A
LITTLE MORE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER LAND. ONCE IT EMERGES OVER
WATER AGAIN...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
BAHAMAS...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
SINCE THE CIRCULATION WILL TAKE TIME TO BECOME REESTABLISHED. THE
CHANCES OF NOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE APPEAR LESS NOW...AND MOST OF
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST THIS TO OCCUR. NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER...ONCE NOEL BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE
NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS
FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.1N 77.4W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 31/0000Z 21.4N 78.3W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/1200Z 22.5N 78.7W 40 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
36HR VT 01/0000Z 24.0N 78.6W 50 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 01/1200Z 26.2N 77.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 32.5N 71.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 03/1200Z 39.0N 64.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 04/1200Z 46.5N 58.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
FORECASTER KNABB
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