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WTNT41 KNHC 311505
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED
AFTER MOVING OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS WERE 53 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HASN'T BEEN
SAMPLED YET...AND SFMR DATA HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 45 KT. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. THE CENTER IS DISPLACED
ABOUT 30-40 NM FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE ORGANIZATION HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN ABOUT 36-48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM RESTRENGTHENS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/7. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR NOEL TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT SURFACE CIRCULATION
OF NOEL...THEY ALL TAKE EITHER NOEL OR A NEW EXTRATROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THE BETTER ASSOCIATION OF
NOEL'S CIRCULATION WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED THIS
MORNING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND PRESUMES THAT NOEL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CIRCULATION. THE TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL
TRACKS FOR NOEL AND THE GFS TRACK FOR THE NEW EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH
OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THIS DISTINCTION MAY
BECOME LESS CLEAR AS NOEL APPROACHES...AND IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO
TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE
WARNING IS CALLED...WINDS NEAR THE LOW-END TROPICAL STORM/GALE
THRESHHOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NWS FORECAST OFFICES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 22.7N 78.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.9N 78.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 25.1N 78.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 27.0N 76.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 73.9W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1200Z 36.0N 67.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/1200Z 45.0N 60.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/1200Z 55.0N 51.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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