855
WTNT41 KNHC 010238
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL HAS
DRAMATICALLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS STILL LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS LARGE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT NOEL HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KT...BASED
ON EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY OCCURRING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS STILL NOT VERY
DISRUPTED BY THE INCOMING SHEAR AND GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION...NOEL STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL ZONE.
AFTER A LONG TIME OVER CUBA OR NEARBY...NOEL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. NOEL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
BUT THE PREVAILING WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE
AND SOON...NOEL WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL FORCE NOEL TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...NOEL WILL BE AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
SINCE NOEL IS ALREADY MOVING NORTHWARD AND IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM FLORIDA...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ...THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY UNEXPECTED INCREASE
IN THE WIND RADII WEST OF THE CYCLONE OR A DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE. IN FACT...
ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING
NOEL A LITTLE...TURNING IT NORTHEASTWARD...AND MAKING IT
EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 23.2N 78.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 24.3N 78.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 26.5N 77.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 74.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 33.5N 70.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/0000Z 42.0N 63.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 05/0000Z 50.0N 53.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/0000Z 55.0N 42.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
FORECASTER AVILA
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