582
WTNT41 KNHC 012035
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NOEL REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB OF 66 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND PEAK
SFMR WINDS OF 53 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER WAS BECOMING DISTORTED AND ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH NOEL...SIGNALING THE
START OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WITHIN ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR
SO...THE SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SO THERE IS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NOEL
TO BECOME A CANE. HOWEVER...AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOEL WILL BECOME AN EXTREMELY LARGE
AND POWERFUL CYCLONE.
NOEL IS ACCELERATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12. A SECOND
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CYCLONE AND CUT OFF
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN 36 HOURS. THIS FORECAST PATTERN
RESULTS IN A TRACK FOR NOEL A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST
COAST...AND WITH THE FORECAST EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII...IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL WIND EVENT FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS NORTHWARD. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 25.5N 77.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 27.6N 75.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 30.7N 73.8W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 03/0600Z 34.5N 71.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/1800Z 50.5N 60.5W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 05/1800Z 60.0N 52.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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