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WTNT41 KNHC 020240
TCDAT1
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE AND ROUND VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE
MASS WITH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENTERED THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL AND MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT DROP FROM
EARLIER FLIGHTS. WINDS AT FLIGHT-LEVEL HAVE INCREASED TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER AND PEAKED AT 81 KNOTS...AND THE MAXIMUM MEASURED SFMR
SURFACE WINDS WERE 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 70 KNOTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO SUPPORT THE
INCREASE IN THE WINDS...AND A 0022 UTC SSM/IS PASS DEPICTED AN EYE
FEATURE. NOEL COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO BUT THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
CIRCULATION AND A COOLER OCEAN. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
TRANSITION TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT IT COULD BE DELAYED
SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PROCESS MAY OCCUR A
LITTLE BIT LATER. NEVERTHELESS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE
AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
NOEL IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG AND ACCELERATING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. FROM THIS POINT ON...THE CYCLONE CAN ONLY ACCELERATE AND
CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED
BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT A
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. DETAILS ON THE EFFECTS OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PRIMARILY NOVA SCOTIA ARE INCLUDED IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT
CANADA.
NOTE: LATEST DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION AND WINDS ARE EXPANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 27.3N 76.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 74.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 33.0N 72.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 03/1200Z 37.5N 69.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/0000Z 42.5N 66.5W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/0000Z 53.0N 58.5W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/0000Z 62.5N 50.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER AVILA
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