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WTNT41 KNHC 020850
TCDAT1
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007
AT ABOUT 05Z...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 70 KT JUST WEST OF THE CENTER BY
DROPSONDE AND THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. THE
AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB...AND 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 89 KT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT BASED ON THIS DATA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/16. NOEL IS NOW EMBEDDED IN A STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
FORECASTS THIS PATTERN TO CAUSE THE CURRENT MOTION TO CONTINUE WITH
SOME ACCELERATION...BRINGING NOEL NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT
48 HR. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THEREAFTER
UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES AT VERY HIGH LATITUDES.
NOEL IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN
26C...AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO WARM. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT STRENGTHEN ANY MORE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
NOEL SHOULD BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY AND
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24 HR. IT IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS DURING THE TRANSITION...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 24-48 HR IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST NOEL TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HR AND DISSIPATE BY 120 HR...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047...QUIKSCAT DATA...AND
AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER
IN SIZE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT REVISION TO
BOTH THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0900Z 28.4N 75.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 31.2N 73.6W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 03/0600Z 35.4N 71.2W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 03/1800Z 40.0N 68.7W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/0600Z 44.9N 65.0W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 05/0600Z 56.0N 56.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/0600Z 64.5N 50.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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