737
WTNT41 KNHC 022052
TCDAT1
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007
NOEL IS MAKING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AROUND 17Z SHOWED PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...THOUGH SFMR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
THE INTENSITY IS STILL NEAR 70 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO
INDICATED THAT NOEL STILL DISPLAYED A WARM CORE AND A FAIRLY TIGHT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. SINCE THEN...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION
HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOW INSUFFICIENT TO QUALIFY
NOEL AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE
SPACE DIAGRAM SUGGESTS THAT NOEL'S THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IS
BEGINNING TO BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND FRONTAL. THUS THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NOEL ADVISORY.
CURRENT MOTION IS 040/17. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE
SMALL SPREAD...THOUGH THE 12Z SUITE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE LATTER.
BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY NOEL AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS BOTH DEEPEN THE CYCLONE AND EXPAND THE HIGH WIND
AREAS. THE INTENSITY AND SIZE FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 31.4N 72.4W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 03/0600Z 34.5N 71.4W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 03/1800Z 39.4N 69.3W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 04/0600Z 44.7N 65.7W 80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1800Z 50.6N 61.1W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1800Z 61.0N 52.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/1800Z 68.0N 46.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
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