601
FONT12 KNHC 110833
PWSAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
0900 UTC TUE DEC 11 2007
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GRAND TURK 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LES CAYES 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 15(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
CAPE BEATA 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PUERTO PLATA 34 14 16(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 32 9(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
PONCE 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JUAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 185N 694W 34 37 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
12 185N 694W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
12 185N 694W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 185N 728W 34 X 12(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
24 185N 728W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 185N 728W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
36 185N 761W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
36 185N 761W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 185N 761W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
48 185N 794W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
48 185N 794W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 185N 794W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
72 185N 835W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
72 185N 835W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
72 185N 835W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40 30 30 25 25 0 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI
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