820
FOPZ11 KNHC 122045
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
2100 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 2 8 14
TROP DEPRESSION 3 7 5 7 13 30 41
TROPICAL STORM 93 78 59 58 61 55 43
HURRICANE 4 15 36 34 25 7 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 4 14 31 27 21 7 2
HUR CAT 2 1 1 4 5 3 1 X
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 55KT 65KT 65KT 65KT 55KT 50KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 20(33) 4(37) 1(38)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 3(24)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FORECASTER BROWN
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