781
WTNT44 KNHC 230844
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SFMR...
DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASUREMENTS UP TO NOW HAVE
YIELDED 70 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...I HAVE TOO MUCH RESPECT
FOR THIS ABRUPT FALL IN PRESSURE TO NOT SHOW ANY INCREASE IN
STRENGTH. THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 75 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE SHOWS A
BANDING-TYPE EYE THAT IS TRYING TO CLOSE OFF ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN FEEDER BANDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR DOLLY TO STRENGTHEN AND THE HURRICANE COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY 2
INTENSITY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSPHY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT
REMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED ENOUGH TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...WITH A SLIGHT
ADDITIONAL DECELERATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME
AS BEFORE. THIS IS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE
ARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE
RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 25.6N 96.5W 75 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 26.0N 97.4W 80 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/0600Z 26.3N 98.7W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/1800Z 26.4N 100.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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