834
WTNT22 KNHC 120232
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 33.6W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 33.6W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 33.7W
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.1N 33.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.4N 33.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.2N 34.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.0N 35.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.0N 40.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 23.5N 46.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 25.0N 51.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 33.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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