296
WTNT42 KNHC 122036
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 PM AST SAT SEP 12 2009
OTHER THAN A SHORT-LIVED PUFF OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL-REMOVED FROM
THE CIRCULATION CENTER...FRED IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID
OF DEEP CONVECTION. IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN NO CENTRAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH FRED SINCE ABOUT 0000 UTC....AND FRED IS NO LONGER
CLASSIFIABLE USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. THE LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION ALSO MEANS THAT FRED IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AND IS NOW DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 30 KT...BASED UPON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE ASSUMPTION
THAT THERE HAS BEEN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SINCE THAT TIME. WHAT
REMAINS OF FRED SHOULD BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS...AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH.
SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS STILL MAINTAIN THE REMNANTS OF FRED DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD MAKE REGENERATION A SLIM POSSIBILITY.
THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON FRED. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/2100Z 17.7N 33.7W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 13/0600Z 18.1N 34.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 13/1800Z 19.0N 35.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/0600Z 19.8N 37.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/1800Z 21.1N 39.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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